tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21768154645134755282024-02-07T06:14:08.885+02:00 THE GLOBAL CHESSBOARDAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.comBlogger7913125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-80045745341671214222016-09-17T17:17:00.001+03:002016-09-17T17:17:23.262+03:00Europe’s Last Dictator Steps Into the Unknown<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 32.8px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">During last weekend’s parliamentary elections in Belarus — a country of just under ten million people that Swedish economist Anders Aslund once described as a “Soviet theme park” — two opposition politicians were elected to the lower house for the first time in more than a decade. This minuscule opposition gain may appear insignificant, but it points to deeper, though incremental, changes.</span></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="pull-quote has-quote" data-pullquote="Other signs of change — sometimes quite odd ones — have appeared throughout the year." style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 32.8px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Other signs of change — sometimes quite odd ones — have appeared throughout the year.</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 32.8px;"> In May, Jon Basil Utley, publisher of the</span><em style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 32.8px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> American Conservative</em><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 32.8px;">, made an unlikely visit to the isolated Eastern European state. Even more improbably, while in Minsk, the country’s pristine capital, Utley took the time to outline his libertarian economic vision to an audience of about forty students at a basement venue called </span><em style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 32.8px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kto Takoi Dzhon Galt?</em><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 32.8px;"> — or “Who is John Galt?”</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Utley was a guest of Minsk’s Liberal Club, a think-tank and advocacy group that promotes free-market reforms for an economy that is 70 percent state-owned and in which 20 percent of companies fail to turn a profit. He was also part of a delegation that met with officials at the Belarusian foreign ministry, with whom he says he enjoyed “good and frank talks.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Until recently, such meetings between senior Belarusian officials and Western campaigners for economic liberalization would have been nearly unthinkable. After all, state control of the economy has long been non-negotiable — in part, the regime says, to fulfill its promise of preventing the country from descending into oligarchy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But the economic and geopolitical consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine have rocked Belarus’s once-stable economy. Today, reforms that once seemed a distant dream are starting to enter the realm of possibility.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The so-called “last dictatorship of Europe” is ruled by President Alexander Lukashenko, the former head of a collective farm, who claims to have been the only Belarusian parliamentary deputy to vote against the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since coming to power in 1994, the wily leader has managed to keep Belarus’s neo-Soviet economy afloat by exploiting its strategic position between Russia and the West — although Minsk has always been, and remains, much more closely aligned with Moscow.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Until recently, a fifth of Russian gas exports and two fifths of its oil exports to Europe passed through Belarus. The country has also been able to profit by refining Russian oil at its Soviet-era Mazyr facility. But Minsk also benefits considerably from trade with the EU and the willingness of western financial institutions to protect it from wholesale Russian domination, as well as Kremlin loans and subsidies designed to prevent it from straying too far in the other direction.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now, however, <span class="pull-quote has-quote" data-pullquote="Belarus’s economic dependence on Russia has become a serious liability, and the old balancing act is looking more and more precarious." style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Belarus’s economic dependence on Russia has become a serious liability, and the old balancing act is looking more and more precarious.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Belarus’s economic dependence on Russia has become a serious liability, and the old balancing act is looking more and more precarious. The collapse of global oil prices and western economic sanctions in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine have rocked its economy, and this in turn has dragged Belarus into an economic crisis more grave than anything it has faced since Lukashenko rose to power.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Belarus’s GDP <a href="http://www.belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnaya-statistika/macroeconomy-and-environment/natsionalnye-scheta/operativnaya-informatsiya_5/gdp-and-grp/gross-domestic-product-and-gross-regional-product-in-2016/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">contracted</a> 3.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">,</span> and the IMF predicts that the economy will shrink by 2.7 percent over the course of the year. Unemployment was <a href="http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_belarus_elections_in_times_of_crisis_4060" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">almost twice as high</a> in 2015 as it was in 2014. The Belarusian ruble has lost half of its value against the U.S. dollar over the past two years, and relentless inflation has forced a redenomination, with four zeros knocked off the currency on July 1.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The crisis is all the more intractable because its principal cause — Russia’s war on Ukraine — has also made Belarus both less able and less willing to turn to its main patron and benefactor for help. Even if Moscow still had the requisite financial resources bail out Minsk, Belarus’s concerns about its behavior in Ukraine have cautioned it against surrendering any further sovereignty to its giant neighbor.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In an indication of the depth of his concern, Lukashenko has expressed veiled criticism of Russia’s annexation of Crimea on several occasions, remarking in October 2014 that if Crimea was an historically Russian territory, then virtually all of Russia itself should be given back to Mongolia and Kazakhstan because it had once been ruled by the Golden Horde.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Stuck between the economic crisis and a desire to maintain its independence, Minsk has been forced to commence reforms and to engage with Western institutions in a way it has never done before, with Lukashenko declaring on the eve of presidential elections last October that he was “ready for reforms and transformations, including revolutionary ones.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The National Bank of Belarus has eased foreign exchange restrictions, and employment in the largest industrial factories has been reduced. The government has also reduced financial support to state-owned firms, and some of the most unprofitable industrial enterprises have been liquidated altogether. In April, Minsk implemented a politically sensitive decision to raise the state pension age for both men and women by three years, and in June it hosted an IMF delegation for a round of talks on further structural reforms.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“Our dialogue with government officials has intensified and become more open,” says Peter Dohlman, who led the IMF’s June delegation. “The government’s response to recent pressures has helped stabilize economic and financial conditions, and this effort has been more sustained than in past crisis episodes. Most senior officials we have met with recognize the need for further, deep institutional and structural reforms.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This willingness to countenance reform has raised hopes among Belarusian free-marketeers that their time has come, generating a sense of optimism they have not felt since the early 1990s, before Lukashenko came to power.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“Compared to ten years ago, when the authorities were arrogant and skeptical, the government is more receptive” says Jaroslav Romanchuk, a Belarusian economist. “We have got more people on board and supporting free market reforms, including within government structures.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“The government understands that this cannot go on any longer” says Yauheni Preiherman, founder of the Liberal Club. <span class="pull-quote has-quote" data-pullquote="“It’s obvious that this economic system is not working. When the crisis started, the system had nothing to offer.”" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“It’s obvious that this economic system is not working. When the crisis started, the system had nothing to offer.”</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“It’s obvious that this economic system is not working. When the crisis started, the system had nothing to offer.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Belarusian public appears to accept the need for changes, according to Andrei Vardomatski of the Belarusian Analytical Workroom, an independent polling company based in Warsaw. Vardomatski conducted a poll in December in which 66 percent of respondents expressed support for economic reforms, with 44 percent saying that they should be gradual and 22 percent in favor of a rapid transition to a market economy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rapid reform remains unlikely, not least because of the fear held by many Belarusians of the rise of a Russian or Ukrainian-style oligarchy — a concern shared by the free marketeers. If the changes are too quick, says Preiherman, “then most probably you will have something like Ukraine. Then people who are closer to power will simply create an oligarchic system.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Aware that a loosening of the economic reins would also pose a threat to his grip on power, Lukashenko is likely to share these concerns, if only for self-interested reasons. Reformers were demoralized in July by the removal of Kiryl Rudy, a key presidential advisor who earlier this year published a candid book on the state of the economy, from his role close to the president.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unfortunately for the Belarusian leader, his artful maneuvering may no longer cut the mustard. With the status quo of the past two decades looking increasingly unsustainable, some regard his predicament as unenviably similar to that of Mikhail Gorbachev in the 1980s — he is aware that reform is unavoidable, but fearful of its potential consequences.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For some, this fear means that the president will remain reluctant to embrace change. “Lukashenko and his colleagues are still trying to restore the old system instead of working on a new model of development,” says Romanchuk. <span class="pull-quote has-quote" data-pullquote="“Essentially, we are facing the prospect of Soviet Collapse 2.0.”" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“Essentially, we are facing the prospect of Soviet Collapse 2.0.”</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“Essentially, we are facing the prospect of Soviet Collapse 2.0.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, for others, the significance of the government’s response is that it demonstrates that, however slow and frustrating the process may be, change in Belarus is possible. “Western officials may not get very far when it comes to political liberalization, but if they could be more assertive in developing relationships with a new generation of Belarusian administrators, they would be sowing the seeds for long-term change,” says Yaroslav Kryvoi, director of the Ostrogorski Center, a think-tank based in London and Minsk.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“Many people regard Belarus as a kind of European North Korea where meaningful reform is impossible, but this is simply not the case,” insists Kryvoi.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, Jon Basil Utley retains his faith in his free-market worldview. “We libertarians believe that economic prosperity will be followed by political freedoms,” he says. Lukashenko will be hoping to prove him wrong.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By <span class="author" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="author" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/author/christian-davies" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Christian Davies">CHRISTIAN DAVIES</a><span class="description" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 1, 0.45098) 0px 0px 5px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; left: 23px; line-height: 16px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; opacity: 0; padding: 10px 10px 10px 70px; position: absolute; text-transform: none; top: 23px; transition: 0.5s; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: hidden; width: 265px; z-index: 99;"><span class="info-icon" style="background: url("/wp-content/themes/vip/foreign-policy/static/stylesheets/../images/info-icon.png") 50% 50% no-repeat; border-right-color: rgb(216, 216, 216); border-right-style: solid; border-width: 0px 1px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 104.391px; left: 0px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: absolute; top: 5.79688px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 53px;"></span></span></span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: inherit; text-transform: uppercase;">,</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: inherit; text-transform: uppercase;"> </span><span class="author" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="author" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/author/paul-hansbury" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Paul Hansbury">PAUL HANSBURY</a></span></span></div>
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<li class="author" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; float: left; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; height: 35px; line-height: 1.5rem; margin: 0px; padding: 0.3rem 0.75rem 0.5rem 0px; position: relative; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline; width: auto;"><span class="FP--author--wrapper" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="author" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="description" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 1, 0.45098) 0px 0px 5px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; left: 23px; line-height: 16px; margin: 20px 0px 0px; opacity: 0; padding: 10px 10px 10px 70px; position: absolute; text-transform: none; top: 23px; transition: 0.5s; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: hidden; width: 265px; z-index: 99;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="info-icon" style="background: url("/wp-content/themes/vip/foreign-policy/static/stylesheets/../images/info-icon.png") 50% 50% no-repeat; border-right-color: rgb(216, 216, 216); border-right-style: solid; border-width: 0px 1px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 75.5938px; left: 0px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: absolute; top: 4.1875px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 53px;"></span></span></span></span></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="last" style="-webkit-margin-after: 1em; -webkit-margin-before: 1em; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 2.05rem; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 615.047px;">
<span class="image-credit" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the photo, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and his son Nikolay attend a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow on December 15, 2015.</span></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-margin-after: 1em; -webkit-margin-before: 1em; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 2.05rem; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 615.047px;">
<span class="image-credit" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Photo credit: ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO/AFP/Getty Images</span></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-margin-after: 1em; -webkit-margin-before: 1em; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 2.05rem; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 615.047px;">
<span class="image-credit" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-family: Solido, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">sourche: https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/16/europes-last-dictator-steps-into-the-unknown-belarus-lukashenko/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2AEditors%20Picks</span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-28051263225989257442016-09-17T17:06:00.002+03:002016-09-17T17:06:58.647+03:00Europe’s refugees and migrants: hidden flows, tightened borders and spiralling costs<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<img alt="Αποτέλεσμα εικόνας για Europe’s refugees and migrants: hidden flows, tightened borders and spiralling costs" height="200" src="https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRy0TD9GLT8go7JvdfFbTjgotUrvXqxRNTk-qXohbfLb6JSypkzuQ" width="400" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since 2012, Europe has experienced record numbers of
refugees and migrants arriving in its territories: migration
to Europe via the Mediterranean has increased threefold
every year. However, since the EU–Turkey deal in early
2016, and other bilateral agreements, the situation has
changed. Now, it is predicted that as few as 330,000
refugees and migrants are likely to arrive in Europe via
the Mediterranean this year. This is far from the 3 million
arrivals expected this year, and less than the 1.1 million
arrivals in 2015.</span></div>
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The European response to the current migration ‘crisis’ has been swift. Since 2014, at least €17 billion has been spent on deterring refugees and migrants through tighter border controls and bilateral agreements, such as the EU-Turkey deal. These measures have been effective in reducing flows – as few as 330,000 refugees and migrants are likely to arrive in Europe this year via the Mediterranean through ‘overt’ routes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, Europe will still see 890,000 asylum applications in 2016. This discrepancy between overt arrivals and asylum applications shows that there are many people whose journeys to Europe we know little about. Border controls have, in many cases, simply rerouted refugees and migrants towards alternative, ‘covert’ routes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As a result of the analysis in this report, we conclude that Europe needs a new approach. It needs to shift from an emphasis on controlling and deterring migration, towards a pragmatic and effective approach to manage it better. This report makes four key policy recommendations:</span></div>
<ol style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; counter-reset: item 0; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 21px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li class="normalPara" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 2em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">European governments should facilitate and increase legal pathways so that they can monitor and more effectively manage flows of refugees and migrants.</span></li>
<li class="normalPara" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 2em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A new global alliance of migration and displacement data is needed.</span></li>
<li class="normalPara" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 2em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Governments should commit to more transparency on deterrence costs, as well as the significant reception and procedural costs in both national and EU budgets.</span></li>
<li class="normalPara" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 2em; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Forge new international and regional coalitions built around common interests and objectives that aim to ensure safe, controlled and well-managed migration.</span></li>
<li class="normalPara" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 2em; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="main-title" style="background-color: #f0f0f0; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a href="https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/10870.pdf" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; width: 783px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Europe's refugees and migrants</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="notlast" style="border-right-color: rgb(153, 153, 153); border-right-style: solid; border-width: 0px 3px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 7px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 7px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Document</span><span class="last" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">pdf</span></span></div>
</div>
</li>
<li class="normalPara" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 2em; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="split-spans" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="last" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By </span></span><span style="color: #5f5f5f; font-family: 'HelveticaRounded LT BoldCn', Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;">John Cosgrave, </span><a href="https://www.odi.org/experts/1619-karen-hargrave" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2e7572; font-family: 'HelveticaRounded LT BoldCn', Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Karen Hargrave</a><span style="color: #5f5f5f; font-family: 'HelveticaRounded LT BoldCn', Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;">, </span><a href="https://www.odi.org/experts/133-marta-foresti" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2e7572; font-family: 'HelveticaRounded LT BoldCn', Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Marta Foresti</a><span style="color: #5f5f5f; font-family: 'HelveticaRounded LT BoldCn', Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"> and </span><a href="https://www.odi.org/experts/453-isabella-massa" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2e7572; font-family: 'HelveticaRounded LT BoldCn', Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Isabella Massa</a><span style="color: #5f5f5f; font-family: 'HelveticaRounded LT BoldCn', Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;">, with Justin Beresford, </span><a href="https://www.odi.org/experts/1622-helen-dempster" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2e7572; font-family: 'HelveticaRounded LT BoldCn', Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Helen Dempster</a><span style="color: #5f5f5f; font-family: 'HelveticaRounded LT BoldCn', Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;"> and </span><a href="https://www.odi.org/experts/1458-joanna-rea" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2e7572; font-family: 'HelveticaRounded LT BoldCn', Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Joanna Rea</a></div>
</li>
<li class="normalPara" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 2em; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="split-spans" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
sourche: https://www.odi.org/publications/10558-europe-s-refugees-and-migrants-hidden-flows-tightened-borders-and-spiralling-costs</div>
</li>
<li class="normalPara" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 2em; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="split-spans" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
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</li>
<li class="normalPara" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #444444; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 2em; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="split-spans" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
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</ol>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-82780343385760386222016-09-17T16:59:00.000+03:002016-09-17T16:59:08.842+03:00Coalition Air Strikes Wipe Out More ISIS Oil Assets In Syria<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 3rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The latest air strikes of the CJTF-OIR forces against the Islamic State come days after coalition strikes <a href="http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Coalition-Against-ISIS-Destroys-55-ISIS-Oil-Tankers-In-Syria.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">destroyed</a> 55 ISIS oil tankers in Syria. The coalition comprises of forces from Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, The Netherlands, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the latest air strikes, the combined task force also targeted ISIS in Iraq, coordinated with and in support of the Iraqi government, and destroyed tactical and logistic units of the Islamic militants.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Back to Syria, earlier this month, U.S. and coalition military forces <a href="http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-led-Coalition-Strikes-Destroy-More-ISIS-Oil-Assets-in-Syria.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">conducted</a> air strikes and destroyed ISIS oil pump jacks and oil tanker trucks, including two oil pump jacks, an oil tank and a headquarters building near Raqqa, the Islamic State militants’ de facto capital in the country.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last month, a coalition forces’ air strike in the province of Deir Ezzor <a href="http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Coalition-Air-Strike-Wipes-Out-80-ISIS-Oil-Tank-Trucks.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">destroyed 83 oil tank trucks</a> used by ISIS to transport crude, the group’s major source of funding. The air strike was part of the larger Tidal Wave II operation whose ultimate goal is to destroy ISIS’ oil-smuggling activities, depriving the terrorist organization of its main means of supporting itself.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia have traded <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/15/middleeast/syria-ceasefire/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">accusations</a> that the other is not holding their end of the fragile Syrian ceasefire deal they had brokered last Friday. The ceasefire, which aimed to pave the way for ending the civil war in Syria, has been largely holding, but the United Nations <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/09/15/russia-us-not-fulfilling-syria-cease-fire-obligations-report-says/90399726/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">face</a> difficulties in reaching besieged cities such as Aleppo to deliver humanitarian aid to civilians. Should the ceasefire hold for seven days, Russia and the U.S. will start talking about potential military options to <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/12/middleeast/syria-ceasefire-explained/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">target ISIS</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By Tsvetana Paraskova </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.5;">sourche: </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 24px;">http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Coalition-Air-Strikes-Wipe-Out-More-ISIS-Oil-Assets-In-Syria.html</span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-37665518418774798382016-09-17T16:43:00.001+03:002016-09-17T16:43:45.031+03:00Leaked documents reveal secretive influence of corporate cash on politics<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The pervasive influence of corporate cash in the democratic process, and the extraordinary lengths to which politicians, lobbyists and even judges go to solicit money, are laid bare in sealed court documents leaked to the Guardian.</span></div>
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<picture><img alt="Scott Walker" class="maxed responsive-img" itemprop="contentUrl" src="https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/dc02e9ba8f30ea410ad2ec20bb43e0fcb0ef623f/0_172_4445_2667/master/4445.jpg?w=300&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=1a946434167637b997f2cee498ffc867" style="border: 0px; display: block; height: 372px; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 620px;" /></picture></div>
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<a class="article__img-container js-gallerythumbs" data-is-ajax="" data-link-name="Launch Article Lightbox" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/14/corporate-cash-john-doe-files-scott-walker-wisconsin#img-1" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #005689; cursor: pointer; font-family: 'Guardian Text Egyptian Web', Georgia, serif;"><span class="inline-expand-image inline-icon centered-icon rounded-icon article__fullscreen modern-visible" style="background-color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 0.6); border-radius: 62.5rem; display: inline-block; fill: rgb(255, 255, 255); height: 2.75rem; margin: 0.625rem; position: absolute; right: 0px; top: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 2.75rem;"><svg class="centered-icon__svg rounded-icon__svg article__fullscreen__svg modern-visible__svg inline-expand-image__svg inline-icon__svg" height="22" viewbox="0 0 22 22" width="22"><path d="M3.4 20.2L9 14.5 7.5 13l-5.7 5.6L1 14H0v7.5l.5.5H8v-1l-4.6-.8M18.7 1.9L13 7.6 14.4 9l5.7-5.7.5 4.7h1.2V.6l-.5-.5H14v1.2l4.7.6"></path></svg></span></a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Guardian Text Egyptian Web', Georgia, serif;"></span></div>
<figcaption class="caption caption--main caption--img" itemprop="description" style="background-color: white; color: #767676; font-family: 'Guardian Text Sans Web', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'Lucida Grande', sans-serif; font-size: 0.75rem; line-height: 1rem; max-width: none; min-height: 1.75rem; padding: 0.5rem 0px 1.5rem;"> Wisconsin governor Scott Walker holds up a dollar bill while speaking at the American Legislative Exchange Council in 2015. Photograph: Denis Poroy/AP</figcaption><div style="background-color: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1rem; padding: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The John Doe files amount to 1,500 pages of largely unseen material gathered in evidence by prosecutors investigating alleged irregularities in political fundraising. Last year the <a class="u-underline" data-component="auto-linked-tag" data-link-name="auto-linked-tag" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/wisconsin" style="background: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 0.0625rem; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out;">Wisconsin</a> supreme court ordered that all the documents should be destroyed, though a set survived that has now been obtained by the news organisation.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The files open a window on a world that is very rarely glimpsed by the public, in which millions of dollars are secretly donated by major corporations and super-wealthy individuals to third-party groups in an attempt to sway elections. They speak to a visceral theme of the 2016 presidential cycle: the distortion of American democracy by big business that has been slammed by both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.</span></div>
<figure class="element element-interactive interactive element--showcase" data-alt="promo" data-canonical-url="https://interactive.guim.co.uk/embed/2016/09/wisconsin-promo/" data-interactive="https://interactive.guim.co.uk/embed/iframe-wrapper/0.1/boot.js" style="background-color: white; clear: both; line-height: 24px; margin: 1rem 0px 1rem -15rem; position: relative;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><iframe height="302" src="https://interactive.guim.co.uk/embed/2016/09/wisconsin-promo/" style="border-style: none; border-width: initial; width: 860px;"></iframe></span></figure><div style="background-color: white; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 1rem; padding: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In a case that is the subject of a <a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="http://www.prwatch.org/files/2015-04-29_cert_petition_redacted.pdf" style="background: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 0.0625rem; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out;">petition</a> currently in front of the US supreme court, five Wisconsin prosecutors carried out a deep investigation into what they suspected were criminal campaign-finance violations by the campaign committee of Scott Walker, Wisconsin governor and former Republican presidential candidate. Known as the “John Doe investigation”, the inquiry has been a lightning rod for bitter disputes between conservatives and progressives for years.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In July 2015 the state’s <a class="u-underline" data-link-name="in body link" href="https://www.wicourts.gov/sc/opinion/DisplayDocument.pdf?content=pdf&seqNo=144525" style="background: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 0.0625rem; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out;">supreme court</a> halted the investigation, saying the prosecutors had misunderstood campaign finance law and as a result had picked on people and groups “wholly innocent of any wrongdoing”. Highly unusually, the court also ordered that all the evidence assembled by the prosecutors be destroyed and later held under seal. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Among the documents are several court filings from the case, as well as hundreds of pages of email exchanges obtained by the prosecutors under subpoena. The emails involve conversations concerning Walker, his top aides, conservative lobbyists, and leading Republican figures such as Karl Rove and the chair of the Republican National Committee, Reince Priebus. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Trump also appears in the files, making a donation of $15,000 following a personal visit from Walker to the Republican nominee’s Fifth Avenue headquarters.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In addition to Trump, many of the most powerful and wealthy rightwing figures in the nation crop up in the files: from Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone, hedge-fund manager Paul Singer and Las Vegas casino giant Sheldon Adelson, to magnate Carl Icahn. “I got $1m from John Menard today,” Walker says in one email, referring to the billionaire owner of the home improvement chain Menards.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Among the new material contained in the documents are donations amounting to $750,000 to a third-party group closely aligned to Walker from the owner of NL Industries, a company that historically produced lead paint. Within the same timeframe as the donations, the Republican-controlled legislature passed new laws making it much more difficult for victims of lead paint poisoning to sue NL Industries and other former lead paint manufacturers (the laws were later overturned in the federal courts).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The John Doe files also provide new insight into the extensive efforts made by allies of <a class="u-underline" data-component="auto-linked-tag" data-link-name="auto-linked-tag" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/scott-walker" style="background: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 0.0625rem; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important; transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out;">Scott Walker</a> to help a conservative member of the Wisconsin supreme court, David Prosser, hang onto his seat in a 2011 re-election. A network of like-minded groups and campaigners channeled $3.5m in undisclosed corporate funds to pay for TV and radio ads backing the judge.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The push was seen as vital, the documents disclose, as a means of retaining the rightwing majority of the court and thereby preserving the anti-union measures introduced by Walker. “If we lose [Justice Prosser], the Walker agenda is toast,” one ally writes in an email sent around to the governor’s chief of staff and several conservative lobbyists.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In 2015, Justice Prosser refused to recuse himself from a case in which the state supreme court sat in judgment over the John Doe investigation, despite the fact that the investigation focused on precisely the same network of lobbying groups and donors that had helped him hang onto his seat. The judge joined a majority of four conservative justices who voted to terminate the investigation and destroy all the documents now leaked to the Guardian.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Prosser told the Guardian that four years had passed since his re-election before he joined the decision to close the John Doe investigation, over which time any potential conflict of interest had faded.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The John Doe investigation was launched in 2012 after a set of recall elections that were forced on Walker and six Republican state senators in the wake of their hyper-partisan anti-union measure, Act 10. The prosecutors alleged that the governor’s campaign committee had operated a coordinated network involving outside lobby groups through which unlimited amounts of corporate money could be channeled without public disclosure.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Walker and the other parties who were the subjects of the John Doe investigation have all protested that they were unfairly accused of legal violations. They point out that no charges have been brought in the case, and that a succession of Wisconsin courts, including the state’s highest, have cleared them of wrongdoing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Walker’s campaign told the Guardian that the John Doe investigation was “baseless” and had been shut down multiple times by the state courts. “There is absolutely no evidence of any wrongdoing,” a spokesman said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The third-party lobbying groups that were the subject of the investigation said the prosecutors had accused wholly innocent individuals of crimes that did not exist under state law. They insisted they had a right to comment about public officials and policy and to protect the confidentiality of their donors.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">by Ed Pilkington</span></div>
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sourche: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/14/corporate-cash-john-doe-files-scott-walker-wisconsin</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-79958695319119476472016-09-17T16:36:00.002+03:002016-09-17T16:36:27.025+03:00The Changing Face of ASEAN: Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam offer an unlikely breath of fresh air.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With much of ASEAN stuck in the economic doldrums and its senior members beset with issues ranging from unprecedented levels of corruption to violent insurgencies and maritime disputes with China, the regional bloc has known better days.</span></div>
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<img alt="The Changing Face of ASEAN" class="wp-post-image" height="257" itemprop="image" src="http://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/thediplomat_2016-09-14_15-45-02-386x257.jpg" style="border: 0px; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; width: 385px;" width="386" /></div>
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(From L to R) Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak, Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Laos President Bounnhang Vorachith attend the opening ceremony of ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Laos (September 6, 2016).</div>
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Image Credit: REUTERS/Jorge Silva</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But from the most unlikely corners of northern ASEAN, a more common sense approach to the region’s increasingly complex political dynamics appears to have accompanied leadership change.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The electoral victory of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy in Mynamar (and her subsequent appointment as state counselor) plus the appointments of Bounnhang Vorachith as president of Laos and Nguyễn Xuân Phúc as the new prime minister in Vietnam may well have ushered in a surprising new era.</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The CLMV and Being Important</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Along with Cambodia, the grouping of Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam as the CLMV has sometimes derogatorily been referred to as the poor relation of ASEAN. Their combined gross domestic product is about $224 billion, less than 10 percent of the $2.4 trillion GDP enjoyed by the entire 10-nation bloc.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All four were latecomers to ASEAN, joining in the 1990s. At the time, the secretariat in Jakarta came under fire from some quarters for allowing Cold War pariahs Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam and the military controlled Myanmar into a club whose members were, for the most part, democratic and Western focused.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Most issues regarding these countries were shaped by their lack of money, a reliance on foreign handouts, and an inability to look after anyone but those closest to the ruling party. <a href="http://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/2510/volume-of-trade-in-clmv-has-grown-rapidly/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">They also lac</a><a href="http://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/2510/volume-of-trade-in-clmv-has-grown-rapidly/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">ked</a> competent infrastructure systems, particularly legal and financial.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Those needs drove Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos heavily toward an expanding China and its foreign aid policy, which dispensed money that by and large did not come with strings attached, unlike Western governments where issues like human rights were tied to funding.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But relations appear to have changed as the three new leaderships stepped onto the diplomatic stage at this year’s ASEAN summits in Vientiane. Some of the political baggage of the past that always seemed intractable now looks negotiable.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Laos, Bounnhang’s government has impressed as this year’s chair of ASEAN, worthy of applause after Stalinist-styled edicts <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/what-if-they-gave-an-asean-summit-and-the-media-failed-to-turn-up/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">were issued</a> by his predecessor on how to behave at these summits. But more importantly Laos has changed the China dynamic and <a href="http://www.rfa.org/english/news/laos/Laos-elect-01222016112729.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">has pushed</a> his country closer to Beijing’s historical nemesis, Vietnam.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As a result, talk of building multi-billion-dollar <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2013/04/laos-approved-for-u-s-5-billion-loan-for-rail-project/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">fast trains</a> across Laos, from Thailand, and into China, and the<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/mekong-fish-stocks-being-sacrificed-on-local-bickering/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">damning</a> of the Mekong River at a cost Vientiane can ill-afford has faded, at least for the time being.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That has eased the <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/01/mekong-river-commission-faces-radical-change/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">politicization</a> of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) where infighting and allegations of corruption has worked only to the detriment of the 70 million people who feed directly off the river.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile Beijing, which backed the military in Myanmar, has responded to the changing times and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/world/asia/aung-san-suu-kyi-myanmar-china.html?_r=0" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">is now</a>offering Suu Kyi an olive branch. China is even signalling it is prepared to use its influence to support her peace negotiations with ethnic Chinese insurgents.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“I do believe that as a good neighbor China will do everything possible to promote our peace process,” Suu Kyi told journalists ahead of early September’s five-day <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/world/asia/myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-peace-talks-ethnic.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">peace </a><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/world/asia/myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-peace-talks-ethnic.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">talks</a>. There were no breakthroughs at the talks but they <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/world/asia/myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-peace-talks-ethnic.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">w</a><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/world/asia/myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-peace-talks-ethnic.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">ere</a> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/world/asia/myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-peace-talks-ethnic.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">still </a><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/world/asia/myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-peace-talks-ethnic.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">hailed</a> as an important step.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“Without peace there can be no sustained development,” Suu Kyi said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With these leadership changes, China can no longer count on automatic support from Laos or Myanmar and is almost friendless in its hotly disputed maritime claims in the South China Sea to waters long held by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/indonesias-south-china-sea-dilemma-16707" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Indonesia</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Buoyed by the Philippines’ <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/philippines-duterte-says-arbitration-ruling-to-be-basis-of-south-china-sea-talks-1472822919" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">victory over</a> Chinese claims in the international courts, Vietnam has also found some legal vigor in its bid to have negotiations held on a multilateral basis with ASEAN, as opposed to the bilateral talks with each country preferred by China, which would be to its strategic advantage.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thailand and Singapore have done their best to remain out of the dispute.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That leaves Cambodia as China’s sole dependable ally and it has <a href="http://www.voacambodia.com/a/cambodia-to-request-asean-keep-quiet-over-south-china-sea/3481965.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">formally asked</a> ASEAN to remain silent on the maritime issue. As one analyst, who declined to be named, said: “This is hardly a formidable combination and any influence Phnom Penh may have had within ASEAN has been compromised by its stand on the South China Sea.”</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ASEAN’s Finest Not Always the Brightest</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">CLMV has often been intimidated by its more prosperous, senior ASEAN neighbors. However, the countries once lauded as Asian Tigers have fallen on hard times when judged by their own historical standards.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Succession issues with an ailing monarch and a military government that seized power through a coup continue to dog Thailand. Corruption, the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/01/whats-a-few-missing-billions-among-friends-why-malaysia-1mdb-scandal-might-not-dent-us-ties.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">1MDB scandal</a>, and militant Islam have sorely tested Malaysia, once known for its brand of secularism and as a model regional business partner.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the Philippines, the deadly crackdown on drug dealers, launched by recently elected president Rodrigo Duterte, has resulted in about 2,000 extrajudicial killings, enraging human rights groups and governments around the world. A state of national emergency has been declared.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">President Joko Widodo’s extraordinary use of the death penalty in Indonesia has eroded perceptions of a modern, forward looking leader, which got him elected in the first place, while Brunei’s introduction of sharia law has earned it comparisons with Pakistan and the Taliban.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Coupled with China’s sharp economic <a href="http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/has-the-china-asean-affair-come-to-an-end/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">slowdown</a>, the major regional players are also facing their harshest economic climate since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The era of 20 percent year-on-year ASEAN export growth into China is over.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“ASEAN economies are tied closely to China and any major contraction in the market will naturally hurt ASEAN,” said Keith Loveard, a risk-assessment analyst with Jakarta-based Concord Security.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This has cost the traditional, senior members of ASEAN some clout.</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fresh Faces, Old Challenges</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The political winds are changing and appear to favor Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Suu Kyi still has to defuse any future confrontation with the Rohingya and resolve a multitude of ethnic insurgencies along her country’s troubled borders. Her stocks have been bolstered by pledges of help from UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, <a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-says-un-chief-to-attend-ethnic-peace-talks/3476310.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">w</a><a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-says-un-chief-to-attend-ethnic-peace-talks/3476310.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">h</a><a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-says-un-chief-to-attend-ethnic-peace-talks/3476310.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">o</a> <a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-says-un-chief-to-attend-ethnic-peace-talks/3476310.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">atten</a><a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-says-un-chief-to-attend-ethnic-peace-talks/3476310.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">de</a><a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-says-un-chief-to-attend-ethnic-peace-talks/3476310.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">d</a> the peace talks, and his predecessor Kofi Annan, <a href="http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/22256-recently-tipped-rakhine-commission-chair-kofi-annan-to-visit-myanmar.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">who will</a> chair the newly created Rakhine State advisory commission, with hopes of resolving conflict with the Rohingya.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Vietnam, another fresh face, President Tran Dai Quang, has <a href="http://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-seeks-support-for-maritime-freedom-3457879.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">given an</a> unprecedented interview with the international wire service Agence France-Presse (AFP) and sought help in resolving the maritime dispute with China.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“We highly welcome the cooperation from France and other nations in the process of maintaining peace and stability in the region and the world and on the East Sea,” he told AFP. The South China Sea is known as the East Sea in Hanoi and the West Philippine Sea in Manila.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It was hardly sensational but it was unprecedented for a communist leader from Vietnam to give such an interview and that should be welcomed. And the stench <a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/vietnamese-officials-death-leaves-corruption-questions-unanswered/1855902.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">of corruption</a> that accompanied the previous administration, ranging from football to banking, has also dissipated.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Like Vietnam, Laos remains a one party communist state. Laos is still expected to resolve the disappearance of Sombath Somphone, <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/laos-in-the-spotlight-again-over-human-rights/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">who went</a> missing in December 2012 and has since become a focus for civil society groups holding that country to account.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Advocates too are hopeful the new leaderships will be more open to dialogue over human rights issues, which have been a perennial thorn in the side of all three northern ASEAN states, and Cambodia, since they were admitted to the bloc.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s too early to say whether a majority of ASEAN’s poorer states have turned the corner and are offering a cleaner, clearer way forward but with a new batch of leaders, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam have rebooted and are off to a positive start.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And that is already changing the face of ASEAN.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: bold; line-height: 18px;">By </span><span itemprop="author" style="font-weight: bold; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;"><a href="http://thediplomat.com/authors/luke-hunt/" style="font-weight: bold; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Luke Hunt</a></span></span></div>
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sourche: http://thediplomat.com/2016/09/the-changing-face-of-asean/</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-44948732523872610912016-09-17T16:32:00.002+03:002016-09-17T16:32:20.057+03:00Το τέλος του G20: Το γκρουπ έχει χάσει τον σκοπό του;<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span class="field-content">Ο πρόεδρος της Κίνας, Xi Jinping, παρευρίσκεται σε συνέντευξη Τύπου μετά το κλείσιμο της συνόδου κορυφής του G20 στην Hangzhou, στην επαρχία Zhejiang, στην Κίνα, την 5η Σεπτεμβρίου του 2016. DAMIR SAGOLJ / REUTERS</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Κατά την διάρκεια του Σαββατοκύριακου της Ημέρας της Εργασίας, οι ηγέτες των χωρών του G-20 συγκεντρώθηκαν στην Hangzhou, στην Κίνα, για την ετήσια σύνοδο κορυφής τους. Στόχος τους το τρέχον έτος: Σώστε το καλό όνομα της παγκοσμιοποίησης, η οποία πρόσφατα δέχεται πλήγματα. Στον απόηχο του Brexit, της υποψηφιότητας για την προεδρία των ΗΠΑ του Ρεπουμπλικανού υποψήφιου Donald Trump, της ανόδου της ευρωπαϊκής ακροδεξιάς, και του αντι-Δυτικισμού της ίδιας της Κίνας, οι ηγέτες του G-20 έπρεπε να ανανεώσουν την δέσμευσή τους για την συλλογική οικονομική ανάπτυξη και το ανοικτό διασυνοριακό εμπόριο και τις επενδύσεις.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Το πρόβλημα είναι ότι, μερικές από τις χώρες-μέλη, συμπεριλαμβανομένης της Κίνας, ενδιαφέρονται για την προώθηση των στόχων αυτών σε σύντομο χρονικό διάστημα. Η στάση των Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών σχετικά με το εμπόριο ρέπει ολοένα και περισσότερο προς τον προστατευτισμό. Και οι δύο προεδρικοί υποψήφιοι αντιτίθενται στην εμπορική συμφωνία Trans-Pacific Partnership με την αιτιολογία ότι οι εργαζόμενοι και η βιομηχανία των ΗΠΑ θα βγουν στο τέλος χαμένοι. Οι προορισμοί των κινεζικών επενδύσεων, όπως η Γερμανία, το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο, οι Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες και η Αφρική αρνούνται όλο και πιο υψηλού προφίλ διασυνοριακές συμφωνίες με κινεζικές εταιρείες, λόγω υποτιθέμενων ανησυχιών εθνικής ασφάλειας. Από την πλευρά της, η Κίνα δεδομένης της επιβράδυνση της δικής της οικονομίας θεωρεί ότι δεν είναι σε θέση να υπερασπιστεί μια εξωστρεφή πολιτική.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Είναι ειρωνικό, δεδομένου ότι στην σχεδόν χωρίς καμία γκάφα, λαμπερή σειρά της Κίνας ως οικοδεσπότης του G-20, ολοκληρωθείσα από ένα ανακοινωθέν που υπόσχεται όλες τις σωστές λύσεις για τα παγκόσμια προβλήματα, το πιο σημαντικό αποτέλεσμα αυτής της συνόδου κορυφής είναι ότι γίνεται σαφές πως ο κόσμος χρειάζεται να αξιολογήσει εκ νέου τον ρόλο του ίδιου του οργανισμού. Το είδος του συντονισμού της εγχώριας πολιτικής που θεωρεί ως άγιο δισκοπότηρο έχει αυστηρά όρια όταν δοκιμάζεται από τις πολιτικές και οικονομικές πραγματικότητες επί του εδάφους. Μετά από δύο ημέρες συνεδριάσεων, και ενός έτους παράπλευρες συναντήσεις μεταξύ των υπουργών Οικονομικών και άλλων αξιωματούχων, η Συμφωνία του Παρισιού για το Κλίμα ήταν η μόνη πρωτοβουλία με συγκεκριμένες απαιτήσεις στις οποίες μπόρεσε να συμφωνήσει το G-20. Αυτό είναι ένα ισχυρό μήνυμα ότι άλλα ζητήματα που στο παρελθόν είχαν φανταστεί ως παγκόσμιου χαρακτήρα, στην πραγματικότητα δεν είναι.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Οι ηγέτες ποζάρουν για μια οικογενειακή φωτογραφία κατά την διάρκεια της συνόδου κορυφής του G20 στην Hangzhou, στην επαρχία Zhejiang, στην Κίνα, στις 4 Σεπτεμβρίου του 2016. DAMIR SAGOLJ / REUTERS<br />--------------------------------------</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ΣΦΥΡΗΛΑΤΗΜΕΝΟ ΣΤΗΝ ΚΡΙΣΗ</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Η παράδοση της συνόδου κορυφής του G-20 καθιερώθηκε στα τέλη του 2008 ως απάντηση στην οικονομική κρίση και στην αναγνώριση ότι οι αναδυόμενες οικονομικές δυνάμεις έξω από το G-7 θα είναι καθοριστικές για την επανεξισορρόπηση του παγκόσμιου χρηματοπιστωτικού συστήματος. Στην σύνοδο κορυφής του Νοεμβρίου του 2008, οι ηγέτες του G-20 συμφώνησαν να συνεισφέρουν 1.100 τρισεκατομμύρια δολάρια στο ΔΝΤ και την Παγκόσμια Τράπεζα, μεταξύ άλλων διεθνών χρηματοπιστωτικών οργανισμών. Αυτά τα χρήματα στην συνέχεια θα χρησιμοποιούνταν για εγχύσεις κεφαλαίων προς χώρες σε περιόδους οικονομικής δυσχέρειας, εμποδίζοντας μια πιο ευρείας κλίμακας «μόλυνση». Οι χώρες συμφώνησαν επίσης να κάνουν αυστηρότερη την ρύθμιση των χρηματοπιστωτικών ιδρυμάτων, συμπεριλαμβανομένων των hedge funds. Πιο εκπληκτικό, και ίσως ως ένδειξη της πίεσης που αισθάνθηκαν οι ηγέτες να ενεργήσουν για την αντιμετώπιση της κρίσης του 2008 είναι ότι δεσμεύθηκαν να συνεργαστούν για διεθνή μέτρα κατά της φοροδιαφυγής, μια πρωτοβουλία που θα σήμαινε παραχώρηση κάποιας κυριαρχίας επί των εγχώριων πολιτικών παραγωγής [κρατικών] εσόδων.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Από την πλευρά του, επί της συνεισφοράς του 1,1 τρισεκατομμυρίου δολαρίων, το νέο τμήμα του G-20 από την αναδυόμενη αγορά δεν έφυγε με άδεια χέρια. Από το συνολικό ποσό που συγκεντρώθηκε, 43 δισεκατομμύρια δολάρια προέρχονταν από την Κίνα. Επιπλέον, το Πεκίνο συμφώνησε να περάσει μια δέσμη δημοσιονομικών κινήτρων ύψους 586 δισ. δολαρίων. Η Βραζιλία, η Ρωσία, η Ινδία και η Νότια Αφρική κατέλαβαν επίσης περίοπτη θέση στην εκστρατεία για κεφάλαια του ΔΝΤ. Στην σύνοδο κορυφής του Πίτσμπουργκ το 2009, οι ηγέτες του G-20 συμφώνησαν να αυξήσουν την ισχύ της ψήφου των αναπτυσσόμενων χωρών στο ΔΝΤ κατά 5% και στην Παγκόσμια Τράπεζα κατά 3%. Η Κίνα τότε ξεπέρασε την Γερμανία, το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο και την Γαλλία διατηρώντας το τρίτο μεγαλύτερο κομμάτι των μετοχών και των ψήφων του ΔΝΤ και της Παγκόσμιας Τράπεζας. Αυτή η αναγνώριση της ανάδυσης της Κίνας ως παγκόσμιου ηγέτη έχει οδηγήσει σε άλλα σημαντικά επιτεύγματα για το Πεκίνο, επίσης: Το γιουάν είναι τώρα μέρος του καλαθιού νομισμάτων του ΔΝΤ, και μια μεγάλη εκστρατεία βρίσκεται σε εξέλιξη για να βεβαιώσει ότι η Κίνα θα κερδίσει την αναγνώριση του καθεστώτος «οικονομίας της αγοράς» στο πλαίσιο του ΠΟΕ στις αρχές του επόμενου έτους. Η φιλοξενία της συνόδου κορυφής του G-20 για πρώτη φορά στην Κίνα, δεν ήταν παρά η τελευταία εκδήλωση του πρωτόγνωρου κύρους της χώρας.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Οι προσπάθειες του G-20 στον άμεσο απόηχο της χρηματοπιστωτικής κρίσης του 2008 έχουν γενικά επαινεθεί. Για εκείνους που ονειρεύονταν πλήρη συνεργασία και συντονισμό μεταξύ των χωρών για να ξεκλειδώσουν το πλήρες δυναμικό της παγκοσμιοποίησης, η ελπίδα ήταν ότι οι πρωτοβουλίες στο ίδιο πνεύμα θα συνεχιστούν. Χωρίς την πίεση της καταστροφής, ωστόσο, το G-20 επανήλθε στον πριν από το 2008 τρόπο λειτουργίας του. Αντί για τον συντονισμό της οικονομικής πολιτικής μεταξύ των πλουσιότερων χωρών του κόσμου, θα διευρυνθεί το πεδίο των σκοπών του ώστε να συμπεριλάβει την αλλαγή του κλίματος, τις επενδυτικές πρωτοβουλίες και τα ανθρώπινα δικαιώματα. Καθώς τα μέλη του σε μεγάλο βαθμό δεν μπορούν να έρθουν σε ουσιαστική συναίνεση σε αυτό το διευρυμένο φάσμα θεμάτων, το G-20 στην συνέχεια έγινε κάτι σαν μια «δεξαμενή σκέψης» (think tank). Σε συνδυασμό με άλλους πολυμερείς οργανισμούς όπως το ΔΝΤ και ο Οργανισμός Οικονομικής Συνεργασίας και Ανάπτυξης, το G-20 παράγει εκθέσεις και υποτροφίες για συνταγές πολιτικής που ελπίζεται ότι θα ενημερώνουν τις ενέργειες των ηγετών στις συνόδους κορυφής και άλλες παράπλευρες συναντήσεις.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Παράσταση κατά την διάρκεια ενός γκαλά για την σύνοδο κορυφής του G20 στην Δυτική Λίμνη της Hangzhou, στην επαρχία Zhejiang, στην Κίνα, στις 4 Σεπτεμβρίου 2016. REUTERS<br />-------------------------------------------------</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ΑΥΞΑΝΟΜΕΝΟΙ ΠΟΝΟΙ</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Κατά το 2014, ωστόσο, οι χώρες του G-20 άρχισαν να ανησυχούν για την αργή ταχύτητα της ανάκαμψης μετά την οικονομική κρίση του 2008. Στην σύνοδο κορυφής στο Brisbane της Αυστραλίας, το έτος εκείνο, οι ηγέτες συμφώνησαν να στοχεύσουν έναν παγκόσμιο ρυθμό ανάπτυξης 2,1% από το 2018. Σύμφωνα με τις προβλέψεις του ΔΝΤ και του ΟΟΣΑ, το ένα τέταρτο αυτής της αύξησης θα προερχόταν από θετικές παράπλευρες επιδράσεις από τις χώρες του G-20 που θα εφάρμοζαν ταυτόχρονα τα συμφωνημένα αναπτυξιακά μέτρα. Οι πολιτικές αυτές περιλάμβαναν: Αύξηση των επενδύσεων σε έργα υποδομής, ενίσχυση του ανταγωνισμού, μείωση των φραγμών στο εμπόριο και την επιχειρηματική δραστηριότητα στο εξωτερικό, και δημιουργία θέσεων εργασίας, ιδιαίτερα για τους νέους.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Δύο χρόνια αργότερα, το ΔΝΤ εξέφρασε την ανησυχία ότι το G-20 ήταν σε τροχιά που υπολειπόταν του στόχου του, κυρίως επειδή οι ρυθμοί ανάπτυξης των προηγμένων βιομηχανικών οικονομιών παρέμειναν σε χαμηλά επίπεδα. Εκτός από τις δημογραφικές εξελίξεις και την χαμηλή παραγωγικότητα, το ΔΝΤ απέδωσε την χαμηλή ανάπτυξη σε αυτές τις χώρες στην έλλειψη επενδύσεων. Ως αποτέλεσμα στην Σύνοδο της φετινής χρονιάς, η γενική αντίληψη ήταν ότι, προκειμένου να σωθεί το σχέδιο της παγκοσμιοποίησης, οι ρυθμοί ανάπτυξης θα πρέπει να αυξηθούν, έτσι ώστε οι πληθυσμοί να μην την χρησιμοποιούν πλέον ως αποδιοπομπαίο τράγο. Έγινε όλο και πιο επιτακτικό, λοιπόν, να ξαναγυρίσουν στην πορεία [επίτευξης] του στόχου της συνόδου κορυφής στο Brisbane για ανάπτυξη 2,1%.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Η φετινή σύνοδος κορυφής έθεσε πρόσθετες δεσμεύσεις με στόχο την προώθηση της συλλογικής ανάπτυξης. Η σημαντικότερη από αυτές ήταν η προώθηση της καινοτομίας. Οι χώρες υποσχέθηκαν μεγαλύτερη διαφάνεια στις οικονομίες τους, προσανατολισμένες προς την προώθηση ενός φιλικού περιβάλλοντος για την λεγόμενη νέα βιομηχανική επανάσταση. Η ψηφιακή οικονομία της κάθε χώρας θα λάβει στήριξη μέσω ανταλλαγών ανθρώπινου κεφαλαίου, διασυνοριακών συνεργασιών και επενδύσεων κεφαλαίου. Οι αναπτυσσόμενες οικονομίες θα απολαύσουν ιδιαίτερη προσοχή στο ξεπέρασμα του ψηφιακού χάσματος. Δημιουργώντας ενδιαφέρον, το ανακοινωθέν περιλάμβανε λίγα για την ασφάλεια στον κυβερνοχώρο ή την ανάγκη προστασίας των δικαιωμάτων πνευματικής ιδιοκτησίας σε διεθνές επίπεδο. Από την άλλη πλευρά, οι εθελοντικές μεταβιβάσεις τεχνολογίας θα πρέπει να ενθαρρυνθούν.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Οι χώρες συμφώνησαν επίσης να συνεχίσουν τις διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις για την τόνωση της οικονομικής αποτελεσματικότητας. Όπως πάντα, οι χώρες θα καταβάλουν κάθε δυνατή προσπάθεια για να αντισταθούν στον προστατευτισμό του εμπορίου και στους υπερβολικά περιοριστικούς ελέγχους επί των κεφαλαίων. Πριν από την σύνοδο κορυφής, ο υπουργός Οικονομικών των ΗΠΑ, Τζακ Λιου, ανακοίνωσε ότι είχε μεσολαβήσει για μια συμφωνία μεταξύ των χωρών του G-20 ώστε να υιοθετήσουν επεκτατική νομισματική και δημοσιονομική πολιτική στην υπηρεσία της παγκόσμιας ανάπτυξης αντί για λιτότητα. Ο Καναδάς, η Κίνα, η Νότια Κορέα, η Ιαπωνία και άλλες χώρες στην Ευρώπη θα περάσουν ανάλογα μέτρα εντός του τρέχοντος έτους για να καθυστερήσουν αυξήσεις φόρων ή να αυξήσουν τις κρατικές δαπάνες τους.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Παρά το ότι συνεκλήθη και πάλι στην σκιά της κρίσης, το G-20 κατά πάσα πιθανότητα διαπίστωσε ότι λίγα από τα μέτρα ανάπτυξης που τέθηκαν στο 2014 είχαν υλοποιηθεί φέτος, και σίγουρα όχι με έναν συντονισμένο τρόπο μεταξύ των χωρών-μελών. Οι πρωτοβουλίες που τώρα επιδιώκουν να αναλάβουν είναι αρκετά διαφορετικές από μια και μοναδική έγχυση μετρητών που κατέστη δυνατή από μια βραχυπρόθεσμη επεκτατική νομισματική πολιτική, ή ακόμα και από τις «πράσινες» πρωτοβουλίες για την καταπολέμηση της κλιματικής αλλαγής. Αυτές ήταν απαντήσεις στα πραγματικά παγκόσμια προβλήματα, όπου οι συνέπειες αναγνωρίζονται ευρέως ως μη έχουσες σύνορα από την φύση τους, και οι κίνδυνοι μπορούν να μειωθούν σημαντικά με την διεθνή συνεργασία. Οι μέθοδοι για την ανάπτυξη, από την άλλη πλευρά, είναι γενικά αρμοδιότητα της εσωτερικής πολιτικής.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Το τελικό αποτέλεσμα είναι ότι ακόμα κι αν οι χώρες μπορούν να δεσμευτούν ότι θα συντονιστούν, οι εγχώριες πολιτικές και οικονομικές πραγματικότητες σημαίνουν ότι τα εθνικά συμφέροντα έρχονται πρώτα. Πράγματι, η φωνή της Κίνας ως έθνος υποδοχής μπορούσε να ακουστεί στο φετινό G-20 με επαναλαμβανόμενες παραλλαγές της φράσης «σύμφωνα με τις εθνικές συνθήκες». Για παράδειγμα, οι διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις σημαίνουν αυξανόμενους πόνους και εκείνοι που είναι εδραιωμένοι στο τρέχον θεσμικό πλαίσιο θα πρέπει να εκτοπιστούν. Στην περίπτωση της Κίνας, η οικονομική επιβράδυνση, επομένως, δεν είναι η καλύτερη στιγμή για να τα εφαρμόσει αυτά με ένα αυστηρό χρονοδιάγραμμα ή σύμφωνα με τις διεθνείς εντολές, όταν οι τοπικές συνθήκες ενδέχεται να απαιτούν διαφορετικές λύσεις.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Τείχη έχουν υψωθεί για τις διασυνοριακές επενδύσεις κατά το τελευταίο έτος καθώς οι χώρες γίνονται όλο και πιο επιφυλακτικές σχετικά με την ξένη ιδιοκτησία πολύτιμων εθνικών περιουσιακών στοιχείων. Η τεχνολογική καινοτομία είναι επίσης σε μεγάλο βαθμό ένα εγχώριο πρόγραμμα στο οποίο οι συνέπειες της εθνικής ασφάλειας γίνονται όλο και πιο ευαίσθητες. Μπορεί να λεχθεί ότι ακόμη και εταιρείες τεχνολογίας για καταναλωτές έχουν κινδύνους ασφαλείας που δεν αξίζουν το ότι είναι σε θέση να λειτουργούν ή να αγοράζουν ελεύθερα εταιρείες στο εξωτερικό. Τέλος, μένει να δούμε την μοίρα του προστατευτισμού. Αν το πολιτικό κλίμα δεν αλλάξει σημαντικά στις δυτικές βιομηχανικές χώρες έως το τέλος του έτους, το άνοιγμα του εμπορίου θα υποφέρει. Και πάλι, οι χώρες κάνουν αυτόν τον υπολογισμό για τον εαυτό τους, όχι επειδή δεν αντιλαμβάνονται τι σημαίνει το ελεύθερο εμπόριο και το συγκριτικό πλεονέκτημα. Αντίθετα, υπάρχουν ισχυρές ενδείξεις ότι οι χώρες μπορούν να αποκτήσουν βραχυπρόθεσμα οφέλη από την προώθηση των εγχώριων βιομηχανιών.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ΧΑΝΟΝΤΑΣ ΤΗΝ ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΕΙΚΟΝΑ</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Η μεγαλύτερη ανησυχία δεν είναι ότι το G-20, ή οποιοσδήποτε άλλος πολυμερής οργανισμός, είναι ανεπαρκώς εξοπλισμένοι για να συντονίζουν τα εθνικά τους προγράμματα για την ανάπτυξη, αλλά ότι τα μέλη του G-20 εξακολουθούν να δέχονται την ορθόδοξη άποψη ότι οποιαδήποτε ανάπτυξη είναι καλή. Η δυσαρέσκεια που οδηγεί στην αντι-παγκοσμιοποίηση δεν προέρχεται από την έλλειψη ανάπτυξης όσο από την ανισότητα. Παρά το γεγονός ότι η οικονομική ανοικτότητα έχει κατευθύνει ένα μερίδιο του πλούτου προς τις αναπτυσσόμενες χώρες και μείωσε το χάσμα μεταξύ αυτών και του Δυτικού βιομηχανοποιημένου κόσμου, η ανισότητα στο εσωτερικό των χωρών έχει αυξηθεί. Οι λύσεις στο πρόβλημα αυτό είναι σχεδόν αποκλειστικά εγχώριες: Μεγαλύτερες επενδύσεις στην εκπαίδευση, επανακατάρτιση εργαζομένων, πιο επιθετικά προγράμματα φορολογίας και μεταφοράς, και τα παρόμοια.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ένας τομέας στον οποίο η διεθνής συνεργασία είναι ζωτικής σημασίας, ωστόσο, είναι στις φορολογικές ρυθμίσεις που εμποδίζουν την φοροδιαφυγή. Υψηλής καθαρής αξίας ιδιώτες και επιχειρήσεις είναι σε θέση να μεταφέρουν το εισόδημά τους σε χώρες με χαμηλότερους φόρους, τις περισσότερες φορές με νόμιμα μέσα. Αυτή η ικανότητα να κρύψουν εισοδήματα εμποδίζει τα προγράμματα φορολογίας και μεταφοράς [κεφαλαίων], για να μην αναφέρουμε ότι έχει σημάνει ένα σημαντικό πλήγμα στα κυβερνητικά έσοδα εξίσου σε προηγμένες και σε αναπτυσσόμενες χώρες. Σε απάντηση, το G-20 και ο ΟΟΣΑ συνεργάστηκαν για να εκπονήσουν και να εφαρμόσουν ένα πλαίσιο για την φορολογική μεταρρύθμιση που μεμονωμένες χώρες μπορούν να εφαρμόσουν με έναν προσαρμοσμένο ρυθμό η καθεμιά. Η επιτυχία της πρωτοβουλίας αυτής μένει να φανεί, δεδομένου ότι διεθνοποιεί ένα εργαλείο που βρίσκεται στο επίκεντρο της οικονομικής κυριαρχίας μιας χώρας.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Το να ζητάται από χώρες σταδιακά αλλά γενικά να εγκαταλείψουν αυτήν την κυριαρχία δεν είναι μια αξιόλογη προσπάθεια για το G-20, ή για οποιονδήποτε πολυμερή οργανισμό. Θα εξυπηρετούσε καλύτερα η εστίαση σε προβλήματα που αναγνωρίζονται ως παγκόσμιου χαρακτήρα και με την ενθάρρυνση των χωρών να συνεργαστούν σε άλλα οικονομικά ζητήματα, χωρίς τυποποιημένες αναπτυξιακές πρωτοβουλίες ή την επιβολή αναπτυξιακών στόχων. Στο τέλος, αφού οι σύνοδοι κορυφής τελειώσουν, η δουλειά της σωτηρίας της παγκοσμιοποίησης εξακολουθεί να περιμένει τους ηγέτες κατά την επιστροφή στην πατρίδα τους.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By <a href="http://foreignaffairs.gr/author/rebecca-liao" style="line-height: 15.0013px;">Rebecca Liao</a></span></div>
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Copyright © 2016 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.<br />All rights reserved.</div>
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Στα αγγλικά: <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-09-14/end-g-20" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-09-14/end-g-20">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-09-14/end-g-20</a></div>
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ΠΗΓΗ: http://foreignaffairs.gr/articles/70972/rebecca-liao/to-telos-toy-g20?page=show</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-45765599229187037582016-09-17T16:27:00.001+03:002016-09-17T16:27:30.663+03:00Three reasons why Belarus is on investors’ radar<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Belarus has been receiving an increased attention from investors of late. Having weathered several heavy economic crises is in the mid-1990s, an ongoing process of implementing structural economic reforms has seen it slowly shirk its reputation as a Soviet-era authoritarian regime with centralised economic planning. While many <a href="http://emerging-europe.com/regions/belarus/belarus-has-to-make-an-extra-effort-to-change-investors-perceptions/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">reforms</a> in the field of economic liberalisation still need to be implemented, the country is actively seeking to improve its international standing and attract foreign investment.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Belarus is gradually opening to international business operations. It is investing in key economic sectors and trying to position itself as a diplomatic partner within a region destabilised by the Ukrainian conflict and the NATO-Russia tensions.</span></div>
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A gradual opening and an interesting business environment</span></strong></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A key aspect generally preventing investment in Belarus remains the perceived obstacles posed by the country’s bureaucracy and its form of government. While the national Belarusian economy remains heavily dependent on public investment, the country has proven capable of showing key signs of <a href="http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/white-russia-makes-progress/ri16076" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">improvement</a> in strategic economic sectors.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to the latest World Trade Organisation (WTO) <a href="http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">Doing Business</a> report, Belarus fares positively in several key categories. It is the 12<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">th</span> easiest country to start a business, 44<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">th</span> when it comes to the ease of doing business, and 29<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">th</span> in regard to the enforcement of contracts.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These indicators put it on par with other eastern and central European states such as Poland. Also, Belarus has gradually fared better in the annual Transparency International Corruption Perception Index (CPI) and in 2015 it was in 107<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">th</span> place out of 168 countries. While corruption still permeates the local socio-economic fabric, it is less of a structural issue than in neighbouring Ukraine which received 130<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">th</span> place in the 2015 report.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Heavily reliant on Russian economic stability, Belarus suffered from major economic downturns following the 2008 international economic crisis and the 2015 Russian recession. However, there are growing signs that the national economy is recovering and that Belarus may experience a period of moderate growth.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The country’s GDP has fallen in 2016, the national economy is likely to bounce back and analysts predict a 1.5 <a href="http://emerging-europe.com/regions/belarus/focuseconomics-belarusian-economy-to-grow-in-q4-2016-and-onwards/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">growth</a> in 2017. The <a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2015/11/why-the-redenomination-of-the-belarusian-ruble-matters/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">redenomination</a> of the Belarusian Ruble was carried out in July 2016 in a bid to counter growing inflation and long-term projections show that the domestic economy may grow by up to 2.2% by 2020.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With an eye turned at implementing internal reforms aimed at facilitating domestic business growth and foreign investments, the government is also actively pursuing a policy directed at gradually opening the country.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is evident in a plan to open Belarus to <a href="http://www.intex-press.by/ru/news/society/23953/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">VISA-free travel</a> for more than 80 countries. The policy is directed at all tourist travel of less than five days with the objective of boosting leisure travels to Belarus and enhancing foreigners’ access to the country.</span></div>
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Driving economic sectors and long-term investments</span></strong></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A major achievement for Belarus has been its capacity to invest and foster development in specific sectors that are sparking new economic growth.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The main example for this is the <a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/07/belarus-it-sector-sparks-new-growth/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">IT sector</a>. With highly educated young people and a favourable legislation, Minsk has become the centre of the domestic IT revolution. Between 2015 and 2014, IT-related export grew by 18% and the sector is now employing more than 45,000 people. The Minsk High-Tech Park has been shortlisted in September 2016 as Europe’s <a href="http://eng.belta.by/society/view/belarus-shortlisted-as-europes-outsourcing-destination-of-the-year-93991-2016/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">outsourcing destination</a> of the year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Indicators suggest that the growth in the IT sector is bound to continue in the coming years. This will result in further development of Belarusian global companies and the growth of a new middle class formed by local high skilled employees.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Along with fostering the growth of sectors such as IT, the public and private actors have also been investing in alternative energy. In August 2016, the Belarusian mobile carrier Velcom <a href="http://eng.belta.by/economics/view/mobile-carrier-launches-belarus-largest-solar-power-plant-93693-2016/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">inaugurated</a> the country’s biggest solar power plant. The plant is located in the southern Gomel region along the Ukrainian border. The project was specifically relevant as it uses land negatively affected by the Chernobyl disaster. It also provides a major electricity output that can provide enough energy to light Minsk during nighttime.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For a country benefiting from large and sparsely populated natural spaces, such projects are an essential step toward a more profitable and sustainable development.</span></div>
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Political stability and improved regional relations</span></strong></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With the Ukrainian conflict unlikely to abate in the medium term, Belarus’ socio-political stability is a key aspect of the regional and international interest in the country. Belarus offers a stable and safe environment in which international business can operate without being exposed to regional tensions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2015/10/october-elections-key-for-investment-in-belarus/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">2015 Presidential elections</a> were a key element of stability. In October, President Lukashenko secured his fifth presidential mandate with more than 83% of the total vote. The polls were met with relative approval by the international community and did not lead to any episode of unrest or repression in the country.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This came in contrast to the 2006 and 2010 opposition protests and further solidified the image of Belarus as a politically stable country and increased President Lukashenko’s domestic and international legitimacy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The October elections followed good-will gestures that took place in August 2015 when the government freed several political prisoners. It is in this climate that the European Union gradually lifted the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-eu-sanctions-idUSKCN0VO1TP" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">sanctions</a> against Belarus. The sanctions targeting more than 170 officials and multiple state-run companies were lifted in March 2016. The EU is also offering Belarus trade preferences and support for Belarus’ WTO bid as well as EU-led investments. These measures are all part of a wider rapprochement between Minsk and Brussels.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These developments took place as President Lukashenko has been pushing to position Belarus as a neutral state serving as a <a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/02/belarus-caught-in-the-middle-between-eu-and-russia/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;">bridge</a> between Russia and the EU. This image was brought forward during the Minsk II talks in regard to the Ukrainian conflict. President Lukashenko also repeatedly avoided taking a side in the Ukrainian crisis and has stated that the country will maintain its geopolitical neutrality. This further strengthens the stable outlook for Belarus.</span></div>
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<a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/author/riccardo-dugulin/" rel="author" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; line-height: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Posts by Riccardo Dugulin"><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">by Riccardo Dugulin</span></a></div>
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Sourche: http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/09/belarus-on-investors-radar/</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-17338690878081396512016-09-17T16:22:00.001+03:002016-09-17T16:22:45.319+03:00Η Κίνα θα ωφεληθεί περισσότερο από το Brexit<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Εμπιστευτείτε τους Κινέζους διεθνείς εμπειρογνώμονες του σήμερα για να εξετάσουν τα ζητήματα μέσα από το πρίσμα του κινεζικού συμφέροντος πρώτα. Αυτή η ειδική έκδοση του China Analysis εξετάζει τα πρώτα σχόλια που δημοσιεύθηκαν στην Κίνα στον απόηχο του Brexit. Οι συγγραφείς υποδηλώνουν ότι οι περισσότερες από τις ζημιές που θα προκαλέσει το Brexit, θα πλήξουν την Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση ή το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο, ή και τα δύο, ενώ η Κίνα θα αποκομίσει τα περισσότερα οφέλη.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Αυτή η "αισιόδοξη" άποψη αντιπροσωπεύει μία αξιοσημείωτη αντίθεση με τις δυσοίωνες εκτιμήσεις της Ιαπωνίας για την επίδραση του Brexit. Μέρος της διαφοράς, ασφαλώς, οφείλεται στο γεγονός ότι η Κίνα έχει μια πολύ διαφορετική σχέση με το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο από ό,τι η Ιαπωνία. Όχι μόνο η Ιαπωνία έχει βιώσει μια φιλία μεγαλύτερη του ενός αιώνα και ακόμη και κάποια συγγένεια με το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο, αλλά οι εταιρείες της έχουν δεσμευτεί με μεγάλες "πράσινες" επενδύσεις στο Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο. Η άμεση πτώση της λίρας είναι ένα πλήγμα στους ισολογισμούς τους, εξαιτίας του υψηλότερου κόστους προμήθειας για τις θυγατρικές του Ηνωμένου Βασιλείου.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Στο μεταξύ, οι κινεζικές επενδύσεις ήταν κυρίως χρηματοοικονομικές (ή στο real estate) και έτσι οι κινεζικές επιχειρήσεις θα μπορούσαν θεωρητικά να μεταφερθούν εκτός Ηνωμένου Βασιλείου με μικρότερη ζημιά. Η σχέση αγάπης-μίσους της Κίνας με την πρώτη έποικό του εξακολουθεί να υπάρχει –και είναι εντυπωσιακό ότι η εξαιρετικά ευνοϊκή πολιτική του Cameron και του Osborne δεν τυγχάνουν καμίας αναγνώρισης, εκτός από την αναγνώριση ότι η Κίνα θα πρέπει να βρει άλλον υποστηρικτή μεταξύ των κρατών-μελών της ΕΕ. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ενώ η Ιαπωνία ελπίζει σε ένα "μαλακό" Brexit –για το οποίο διαβάζουμε, όσο λιγότερο Brexit, τόσο πιο ανθρωπίνως διαχειρίσιμο- οι Κινέζοι σχολιαστές φαίνεται ότι σπεκουλάρουν πολύ πιο άμεσα για την περίπτωση μιας κρίσης στην μετά το Brexit κατάσταση. Εξετάζουν την διαίρεση και την αποδυνάμωση της ΕΕ, τις ισχυρές συμφωνίες ελεύθερου εμπορίου με το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο (τις οποίες το υπουργείο Εμπορίου της Κίνας έχει επισήμως χαρακτηρίσει ως μια πιθανότητα), και ακόμη και μια ξεχωριστή συμφωνία για το καθεστώς οικονομίας της αγοράς.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Είναι αυτό ένα όνειρο; Με μια εξαίρεση, οι πηγές μας δεν φαίνεται να έχουν λάβει υπόψη τους την σύγχυση μεταξύ των βρετανικών πολιτικών δυνάμεων, ακόμη και εντός του στρατοπέδου των νικητών. Είναι εντυπωσιακό ότι κανείς δεν κοιτάζει την πιθανή στρατηγική της ΕΕ σε σχέση με την απόφαση για το Brexit –και πάλι αυτό είναι ίσως ο μόνος σημαντικός παράγοντας στο να καθορίσει τι υπάρχει για την Ευρώπη.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Οι Κινέζοι ειδικοί έχουν μια καλή δικαιολογία: η αντίδραση της ΕΕ μετά από το Brexit ήταν αποδιοργανωμένη, εάν όχι τόσο πολύ ορατά διαιρεμένη. Ενώ η άμεση κερδοσκοπία έχει εστιάσει κυρίως στο σοκ του Brexit, το αιώνιο θέμα της ΕΕ του να "μιλάει με μια φωνή", επαναβεβαιώνει την ίδια –και αυτό είναι κάτι για το οποίο οι Κινέζοι είναι πλήρως ενήμεροι, δεδομένου του δικού τους ιστορικού συναλλαγών με την ΕΕ.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ο Jean Claude-Juncker έχει ταχθεί δημοσίως εναντίον της πιθανότητας ένα κράτος-μέλος της ΕΕ να εμπλακεί σε συζητήσεις για την σύναψη των δικών του εμπορικών συμφωνιών έξω από την ΕΕ. Το πόσο πολύ η ΕΕ είναι ικανή να μείνει στη θέση του οδηγού, ή εάν το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο καταφέρει να υιοθετήσει μια πιο ευκίνητη στρατηγική, είναι κάτι που θα πρέπει να εξετάζει η Κίνα.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 22.9608px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Των Francois Godement και Angela Stanzel</span></span></div>
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Μπορείτε να δείτε το κείμενο εδώ: http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/china_and_brexit_whats_in_it_for_us7112</div>
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ΑΠΟΔΟΣΗ: capital.gr</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-59788738181688159332016-08-28T12:17:00.000+03:002016-08-28T12:18:01.361+03:00U.S., Russia say they are close to cooperation deal in Syrian war<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span class="pb-caption" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; font-family: "franklinitcprolight" , "helveticaneue" , "helvetica neue light" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 1.1em; margin-top: 4px;">Secretary of State John F. Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meet in Geneva on Friday. (Martial Trezzini/AP)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The United States and Russia failed Friday to reach a final agreement on a U.S.-proposed deal to coordinate their air attacks on terrorist groups in Syria and to stop Russian and Syrian bombing of civilian and rebel-held areas, but said they were close and would continue discussions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">“We’re not going to rush to an agreement until it satisfies fully the needs of the Syrian people and the ability of the international community to address them,” Secretary of State John F. Kerry said after more than nine hours of talks here with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">“We made a number of steps forward,” Lavrov said in a late-night news conference with Kerry. “The fact that we’re not making them public does not mean that we are not getting closer.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Both noted a reluctance to repeat past experiences during the five-year civil war, when agreements fell apart, at times even before they had begun to be implemented.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">“I don’t want to make an announcement, nor does President Obama want to make an announcement, that is not enforceable, that does not have details in place, that winds up in the same place as the last two announcements,” Kerry said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="c3d44114776c42f83167e661ff3df03690aab2b3" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></a><img alt="" class="courtesy-of-the-resizer zoom-in" data-hi-res-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1024w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/26/Foreign/Images/Mideast_Syria_Damascus_Suburb-bee5e.jpg?uuid=zOoV-muFEeaZv_DPOmRJpg" data-low-res-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_480w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/26/Foreign/Images/Mideast_Syria_Damascus_Suburb-bee5e.jpg?uuid=zOoV-muFEeaZv_DPOmRJpg" data-raw-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/26/Foreign/Images/Mideast_Syria_Damascus_Suburb-bee5e.jpg?uuid=zOoV-muFEeaZv_DPOmRJpg" src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1024w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/26/Foreign/Images/Mideast_Syria_Damascus_Suburb-bee5e.jpg?uuid=zOoV-muFEeaZv_DPOmRJpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; height: auto; max-width: 100%; width: auto;" /><span class="pb-caption" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 1.1em;">Aid ambulances line up in Darayya, a blockaded Damascus suburb. Rebels agreed to evacuate after four years of grueling bombardment and a crippling siege. (AP)</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Neither he nor Lavrov provided details on progress toward resolving what appeared to be the broad remaining chasm between them: how to stop Syrian government and Russian bombing of civilians, and how to persuade U.S.-backed opposition forces to separate from the terrorist groups many of them are fighting beside.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">“To have details that still need to be worked out after 10 hours of negotiations and basically the same meeting a month ago — this indicates political, not technical, decisions are required by Obama and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” said Andrew Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Kerry and Lavrov said their “technical teams” will continue to talk, and Kerry indicated that an agreement, if it is possible, could be reached within the next week. The overall goal is to reinstate a cease-fire that was partially successful for several weeks late last winter and to relaunch political talks that fell apart along with the truce.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Since then, however, the situation on the ground has gotten worse rather than better, with steadily increasing air bombarment by Syria and Russia, and growing overlap between U.S.-backed opposition forces and at least one of the two terrorist groups both the United States and Russia consider legitimate targets: the Front for the Conquest of Syria — or Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, the al-Qaeda affiliate formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra — and the Islamic State.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Much of that fighting has taken place in the northern city of Aleppo, where the Front and opposition rebels, as well as the government, have blocked access routes to humanitarian aid for more than 1 million civilians stranded under brutal air and ground fire. No resolution to the Aleppo situation was announced after the meeting.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Kerry first made the truce and coordination proposal during a visit to Moscow last month. Since then, the carnage in Syria has only increased, with Aleppo becoming a humanitarian disaster zone and aid still blocked to nearly two dozen similarly besieged towns and cities.</span></div>
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<i style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/as-kerry-pushes-for-coordination-with-russia-in-syria-others-in-administration-cry-foul/2016/07/12/83623008-484d-11e6-bdb9-701687974517_story.html" shape="rect" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(213, 213, 213); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: 18px; text-decoration: none; zoom: 1;">U.S. push for coordination with Russia in Syria opens rift</a>]</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="f4a3198379457ac58bef006763c3191ed9c88930" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></a><img alt="" class="courtesy-of-the-resizer zoom-in" data-hi-res-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1024w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/26/Foreign/Images/Turkey_Syria-09330.jpg?uuid=9GkNemuFEeaZv_DPOmRJpg" data-low-res-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_480w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/26/Foreign/Images/Turkey_Syria-09330.jpg?uuid=9GkNemuFEeaZv_DPOmRJpg" data-raw-src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/26/Foreign/Images/Turkey_Syria-09330.jpg?uuid=9GkNemuFEeaZv_DPOmRJpg" src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1024w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/08/26/Foreign/Images/Turkey_Syria-09330.jpg?uuid=9GkNemuFEeaZv_DPOmRJpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; height: auto; max-width: 100%; width: auto;" /><span class="pb-caption" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 1.1em;">A child waves at Turkish troops heading to the Syrian border. (Halit Onur Sandal/AP)</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A U.S.-Russian military and intelligence working group agreed over the past several weeks on maps demarcating the primary locations of the Islamic State and the Front, places where those groups are mixed with U.S.-backed rebel fighters, and areas primarily populated by civilians. The Front for the Conquest of Syria formally split from al-Qaeda last month and changed its name from Jabhat al-Nusra.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Under the proposal, the Syrian government would cease combat air operations, the rebels would stop firing at government positions, and only the two terrorist groups — the Islamic State and the Front — would be targeted by coordinated U.S. and Russian airstrikes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Russia has said it cannot agree until the United States and its coalition partners are able to sufficiently separate the rebel groups they back from the terrorist fighters in areas where they overlap. With the escalation of fighting in Aleppo, those groups have become more intertwined.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For its part, the United States has said Russia and the Syrian air force have used the overlap as a smokescreen to continue their attacks on rebel groups fighting to oust President Bashar al-Assad.</span></div>
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<i style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-russia-cooperation-frays-as-syria-truce-falls-apart/2016/04/27/c97eab8e-0b03-11e6-bfa1-4efa856caf2a_story.html" shape="rect" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(213, 213, 213); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: 18px; text-decoration: none; zoom: 1;">U.S.-Russia cooperation frayed as Syria truce fell apart</a>]</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">U.S. refusal to become a direct participant in the civil war, even as it escalates its air attacks against the Islamic State and says it will target the Front, has become increasingly difficult to maintain on the ground as the once-separate battlefields have edged closer together and multiple forces are fighting with different agendas.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This week, Turkey entered the fray, sending tanks, troops and aircraft across the Syrian border to help U.S.-backed rebels drive Islamic State militants out of the key border town of Jarabulus. But equally high on the Turkish agenda was preventing U.S.-supported Syrian Kurdish forces fighting the Islamic State from occupying Jarabulus and the surrounding border area.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Russian media reported Friday that Moscow has asked Turkey for information on its air operations inside Syria. The Russian Defense Ministry wants “to prevent air incidents because it will be the first time when Turkish warplanes will intensively bomb targets in Syria and may meet Russian warplanes in midair,” a ministry official said, according to the newspaper Izvestia.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The United States and Russia already have a “deconfliction” agreement to avoid collisions in the increasingly crowded Syrian skies.</span></div>
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<i style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">[<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/08/17/the-stunned-bloodied-face-of-a-child-survivor-sums-up-the-horror-of-aleppo/" shape="rect" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(213, 213, 213); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: 18px; text-decoration: none; zoom: 1;">Stunned, bloodied face of 5-year-old sums up horror of Aleppo</a>]</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Separate from the coordination deal, Russia has proposed a weekly, 48-hour pause in fighting in Aleppo that would allow aid deliveries to the rebel-held eastern part of the city along the Castello Road, the main rebel and aid supply line north to Turkey that was cut weeks ago by Russian and Syrian bombardment.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In response, a Front-led offensive pushed through government lines to the city’s rebel south and is now attacking government-held western Aleppo.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. special envoy for Syria, said U.N. aid convoys are loaded and ready to move into the city. “We want a pause for 48 hours,” he said. “The Russian Federation replied ‘yes.’ We will wait for others to do the same. But we are ready, trucks are ready, and they can leave anytime we get that message.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">But rebel groups have yet to agree to the proposal.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.6px;">By </span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/people/karen-deyoung" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer !important; line-height: 17.6px; outline: 0px; text-decoration: none;">Karen DeYoung</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Heba Habib in Stockholm contributed to this report.</span></div>
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sourche: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/kerry-meets-lavrov-in-geneva-in-bid-to-forge-truce-deal-in-syrian-war/2016/08/26/95aaf690-6af9-11e6-91cb-ecb5418830e9_story.html</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-48523408370462769742016-08-28T12:06:00.003+03:002016-08-28T12:06:51.579+03:00Η πολιτική ατζέντα της Κίνας για τη Σύνοδο της G20<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Η Κίνα θα φιλοξενήσει την επόμενη Σύνοδο Κορυφής της G20 στις 4-5 Σεπτεμβρίου στο Hangzhou. Με τον χρόνο να περνάει, ο κόσμος περιμένει να δει πώς θα εκμεταλλευτεί η Κίνα την συνάντηση για να προάγει την εσωτερική αναπτυξιακή της ατζέντα και να διαμορφώσει την παγκόσμια οικονομική διακυβέρνηση. Προβλέπω ότι η Κίνα θα έχει τρεις βασικούς στόχους: ενίσχυση του διεθνούς ρόλου της, προώθηση της απελευθέρωσης του εμπορίου και μια παγκόσμια ατζέντα διαρθρωτικών μεταρρυθμίσεων σε συνδυασμό με τη δημοσιονομική στήριξη της ζήτησης.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Καταλήγω σε αυτούς τους συγκεκριμένους στόχους από τα δηλωμένα θέματα της Κίνας για την προεδρία της G20, δηλαδή την ανάπτυξη, την διασυνδεσιμότητα και την ενσωμάτωση. Μια κινεζική παροιμία λέει ότι το "Hangzhou είναι σαν παράδεισος επί της γης", και οι κινεζικές αρχές πιθανώς θα επωφεληθούν από αυτόν τον "παράδεισο" για να πετύχουν τους πολιτικούς τους στόχους. Αλλά οι στόχοι τους, μήπως είναι ανέφικτοι; Η πρόοδος είναι δύσκολη, ιδιαίτερα σε μια εποχή που η παγκόσμια οικονομία είναι υποτονική και έχει κολλήσει σε έναν βάλτο όπου η νομισματική πολιτική φαίνεται να έχει χάσει την αποτελεσματικότητά της. Μόνο τα δημοσιονομικά όπλα έχουν μείνει, αλλά αυτό είναι μόνο για τις λίγες τυχερές οικονομίες που έχουν ακόμη περιθώριο. Για να κρίνουμε πόσο ρεαλιστικοί μπορεί να είναι οι στόχοι της Κίνας για την συνάντηση της G20 του Σεπτεμβρίου, εδώ είναι μερικές λεπτομέρειες για το κάθε ένα από αυτά.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Πρώτον, το εξωτερικό εμπόριο είναι ζωτικής σημασίας για την στήριξη της παγκόσμιας ανάπτυξης –αλλά ιδιαίτερα της ανάπτυξης στην Κίνα. Είναι δύσκολο να βρεθεί μια χώρα που έχει επωφεληθεί περισσότερο από το εμπόριο, από την Κίνα. Ακόμη κι αν το Πεκίνο επανεξισορροπείται προς μια οικονομία βασισμένη στην κατανάλωση, η Κίνα χρειάζεται ακόμη να εξάγει σε πλήρη δυναμικότητα για να διατηρήσει την ανάπτυξη σε ένα αρκετά υψηλό επίπεδο. Ο προστατευτισμός είναι συνεπώς ένας από τους μεγαλύτερους κινδύνους για την επιτυχημένη οικονομική μετάβαση της Κίνας. Μετά από τη διάλυση του γύρου της Ντόχα και με την σημαντικά αυξημένη διαπραγματευτική ισχύ της Κίνας, οι διμερείς εμπορικές συμφωνίες φαίνεται να έχουν γίνει βασικό εργαλείο πολιτικής της Κίνας για να αποφευχθεί ο προστατευτισμός. Σε κάθε περίπτωση, η G20 είναι ένα καλό μέρος για να υπενθυμίσει στους παγκόσμιους ηγέτες τη σημασία της πολυμέρειας και να διευρύνει τα κέρδη από το διεθνές εμπόριο, κάτι που είναι ακόμη σαφώς προς το συμφέρον της Κίνας.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Δεύτερον, η έντονη επιθυμία της Κίνας να ενισχύσει την ήπια ισχύ της θα είναι στο προσκήνιο στη Σύνοδο της G20. Στην πραγματικότητα, η κινεζική κυβέρνηση θα διεκδικήσει την συμμετοχή της Κίνας στις παγκόσμιες υποθέσεις και θα αμφισβητήσει το status quo. Η Σύνοδος της G20 είναι ένας ιδανικός χώρος για να γίνει αυτό, διότι οι αναδυόμενες χώρες αποτελούν αναπόσπαστο μέρος της ομάδας και αυτό φυσικά αποδυναμώνει την αμερικανική κυριαρχία. Οι αναδυόμενες οικονομίες πιθανότατα θα υποστηρίξουν τον ευρύτερο παγκόσμιο ρόλο της Κίνας στη συνάντηση της G20, ιδιαίτερα διότι δύο από τα βασικά θέματα της ατζέντας (η Συμφωνία του Παρισιού για την κλιματική αλλαγή και η χρηματοδότηση του παγκόσμιου χάσματος των υποδομών) θα ενώσει τις αναδυόμενες χώρες. Είναι αυτονόητο ωστόσο ότι η νέα ένταση στην Ανατολική Θάλασσα της Κίνας μπορεί να επισκιάσει ένα τέτοιο κοινό συμφέρον. Υπάρχει κίνδυνος οι χώρες να φοβούνται μια ολοένα και πιο ρεβιζιονιστική Κίνα. Έτσι, η Κίνα πιθανώς θα χρησιμοποιήσει την Σύνοδο Κορυφής για να αναδείξει τα νέα διεθνή της θεσμικά όργανα, την Ασιατική Επενδυτική Τράπεζα Υποδομών και τη Νέα Αναπτυξιακή Τράπεζα. Το Πεκίνο θα θέλει επίσης να προάγει την ιδιαίτερα φιλόδοξη Πρωτοβουλία Ζώνη και Δρόμος. Τα τεράστια ποσά των κινεζικών άμεσων επενδύσεων, τα οποία έχουν αυξηθεί από τις αρχές του 2016, αποτελούν μια ακόμη ένδειξη της ταχέως αυξανόμενης επιρροής της Κίνας στον κόσμο, κάτι που υποστηρίζει έναν μεγαλύτερο ρόλο στην διεθνή οικονομική αρχιτεκτονική.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Τέλος, ο τρίτος βασικός στόχος της Κίνας θα είναι να υποστηρίξει την ανάγκη για διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις, διατηρώντας παράλληλα την υψηλή ανάπτυξη. Από την άποψη της κινεζικής κυβέρνησης, η υψηλή ανάπτυξη μπορεί να διατηρηθεί μέσω πολιτικών χαλαρής ζήτησης. Σε περίπτωση απουσίας του νομισματικού χώρου σε επίπεδο G7, η συνταγή είναι δημοσιονομική επέκταση για όσο καιρό υπάρχει χώρος. Για τις αναδυόμενες οικονομίες, η Κίνα θα πιέσει και για τα δύο. Σχετικά με τις διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις, η τελευταία προσπάθεια του προέδρου Xi για μια μεταρρυθμιστική ατζέντα, τουλάχιστον κατ’ όνομα, περιγράφηκε λεπτομερώς στο 13ο πενταετές σχέδιο. Αυτό θα πρέπει επίσης να λειτουργήσει ως μια βάση για την πρόσκληση της Κίνας για διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις στη Σύνοδο της G20, έτσι ώστε να αυξηθεί η παραγωγικότητα σε διεθνές επίπεδο. Αυτό μου φαίνεται εξαιρετικά σημαντικό, διότι ο αναπτυγμένος κόσμος αντιμετωπίζει αρκετές προκλήσεις, όπως το υψηλό χρέος, τις χαμηλές αποδόσεις στις επενδύσεις και ένα γηρασμένο πληθυσμό, κάτι που μόνο η ενίσχυση της παραγωγικότητας μπορεί να ξεπεράσει.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Με λίγα λόγια, θα πρέπει να περιμένουμε ότι η Κίνα, ως οικοδεσπότης της επερχόμενης Συνόδου Κορυφής της G20, θα πιέσει για τρεις στόχους, δηλαδή για την απελευθέρωση του εμπορίου, για έναν μεγαλύτερο διεθνή ρόλο και για διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις με πολιτικές χαλαρής ζήτησης. και οι τρεις στόχοι θα πρέπει να τύχουν επαρκούς στήριξης από όσους συμμετέχουν στη Σύνοδο της G20, και ως εκ τούτου να εμφανιστούν και στο ανακοινωθέν. Το πραγματικό ερώτημα ωστόσο είναι πώς θα χειριστεί πραγματικά η G20 αυτούς τους στόχους στο μέλλον. Εδώ είναι που η Κίνα ίσως έχει πολύ μικρότερο περιθώριο ελιγμών, δεδομένης της διακυβερνητικής δομής της G20 και της έλλειψης λειτουργικής ανεξαρτησίας που απολαμβάνει ένα τέτοιο όργανο.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 22.9608px;">Της </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; line-height: 22.9608px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Alicia Garcia-Herrero</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">© Copyright Bruegel. Η μετάφραση του κειμένου έγινε από το Capital.gr. Η δημοσίευση της ελληνικής μετάφρασης δεν αποτελεί προϊόν επίσημης συνεργασίας</span></div>
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Μπορείτε να δείτε το κείμενο εδώ: http://bruegel.org/2016/08/chinas-political-agenda-for-the-g20-summit/</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-79261549865444647822016-08-28T12:01:00.000+03:002016-08-28T12:01:18.841+03:00Shockwatch report: sub-Saharan Africa’s economic downturn and its impact on financial development<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The current economic climate is causing a slowdown in financial development in sub-Saharan Africa. Credit is contracting, savings have declined, cross-border capital is less available and more costly, while indicators of financial soundness have deteriorated.</span></div>
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<img alt="Infographic: Africa facing credit crunch, with private sector growth contracting sharply" height="200" src="https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/paragraph-images/shockwatch_social_1-01_0.png" width="400" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />There have also been failures in governance of private and public institutions, including corruption and fraud that have deepened these problems. These have also undermined the public trust that is essential for long-term formal financial development.</span><a name='more'></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While it seems unlikely that these condition will develop into a financial crisis unless there are further significant economic shocks, they are negative for economic growth – and especially given the on-going ‘credit crunch’ – in an economic environment that is already difficult. In this context, policy needs to counterbalance the short-term negative effects. However, it also needs to address the long-term needs to maintain and balance financial sector development and stability.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Key messages</span></h2>
<ul style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; list-style-position: outside; margin: 0px 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a deterioration in financial markets including a ‘credit crunch’ in the banking sector, reduced availability and increased expense of international finance – which has been made worse by the ‘Brexit’ shock – and increased financial fragility. On-going governance problems are making these issues worse.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Importantly for the region’s long-term growth prospects, scarce banking finance is being used in sectors with little or no transformational effect such as extractives or middle class consumer finance.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is starving sectors that would transform the economy – such as manufacturing, trade and agri-processing – of the financing they need to grow, reducing the prospects for structural changes that would diversify the economy and create employment.</span></li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Policy suggestions include tailored macro prudential policy for sub-Saharan Africa, more robustly directing credit into priority sectors and international cooperation to tackle corruption.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">read more:</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/10724.pdf" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2e7572; display: inline-block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; width: 783px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Shockwatch Bulletin: sub-Saharan Africa’s economic downturn</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="last" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By </span><a href="https://www.odi.org/experts/1320-judith-tyson" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2e7572; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Judith Tyson</a></span></div>
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sourche: https://www.odi.org/publications/10492-shockwatch-report-sub-saharan-africa-s-economic-downturn-and-its-impact-financial-development</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-35316637952533501972016-08-28T11:55:00.001+03:002016-08-28T11:55:41.107+03:00China’s Growing Arms Sales to Latin America<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In recent years China has asserted itself as a key player in the global arms trade. Not only have both export volume and weapons quality increased rapidly, the range of customers China has been supplying has also expanded greatly over the course of the past decade. Latin America is one of the key regions into which Chinese arms have begun to pour. Yet while commentators of the past have doubted the strategic significance of China’s arms sales to this region — pointing to their relatively meager quantity and the fact that most Latin American states still rely on more established suppliers for their most important military hardware (see <a href="http://www.americasquarterly.org/Marcella" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">here</a>, for instance) — there are signs that things may be changing.</span></div>
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<img alt="China’s Growing Arms Sales to Latin America" height="182" src="http://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/thediplomat_2016-08-23_20-13-40-386x176.jpg" width="400" /></div>
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Members of the Venezuelan army fly a Chinese-made K-8 jet in Barquisimeto (March 13, 2010).</div>
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Image Credit: REUTERS/Miraflores Palace/Handout</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With next to no arms sales to the region before 2005, China is now a key supplier to Latin America. Venezuela continues to lead in China’s Latin American arms sales, with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimating that between 2011 and 2015 Venezuela purchased $373 million of Chinese weaponry. A $500 million deal in 2012 for weaponry including armored personnel carriers and self-propelled artillery ensures that this arms relationship is set to continue flourishing into the future.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yet China has also made significant inroads into many other countries in the region. The socialist-leaning “ALBA” states (<em>Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América</em>, or “Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America”) have shown a particular interest in Chinese military hardware. Bolivia, for example, has secured deals worth $58 million and $108-113 million in 2009 and 2012, respectively, for China’s Karakorum trainer jets and Panther helicopters. Non-ALBA states, too, have been increasingly interested in procuring Chinese armaments in recent years. Interestingly, in 2009, Peru — a key economic partner for the United States in the region and supporter of the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership — purchased 15 of China’s FN-6 portable surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) in a $1.1 million deal, along with ten more of its SAMs. Then, in 2013, it bought 27 multiple rocket launchers in a $39 million deal.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While the upward trend in sales to the region may suggest a growing trust in Chinese military hardware in the region, sales outside of the well-established Venezuelan arms sales relationship have still been made up of mostly small deals for secondary equipment, such as radars and trainer jets. Yet a crucial juncture came early last year, when then-President of Argentina Christina Fernández de Kirchner announced that her government<a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Argentina-turns-to-China-for-arms-supply" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">intended to purchase almost $1 billion in Chinese weapon systems</a> during her visit to China in February 2015. The equipment the Kirchner administration intended to buy included 110 armored personnel carriers, five Malvinas-class ocean patrol vessels, and 14 JF-17 Thunder multi-role fighters — a stark change in the volume and quality of equipment normally sought by China’s Latin American buyers. However, with Kirchner’s defeat in the November 2015 election to Mauricio Macri and the likelihood that <a href="http://latinamericagoesglobal.org/2015/11/what-does-macris-election-in-argentina-mean-for-the-region/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Macri will want to pull Argentina away</a>from his predecessor’s geopolitical alignment with Russia, China, and the ALBA alliance, the status of these and other potential orders is currently unknown and perhaps now unlikely to go through.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While these sales to Argentina may not come into fruition, they may nevertheless signal a turning point. There is little doubt that <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/06/china-wants-to-reform-its-defense-industry/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">China remains behind its competitors</a> in a couple of key military production areas — an indigenously-produced turbo fan engine for its fighter jets constituting a notable persisting failure. Yet this Argentinian interest in China’s premium military equipment suggests that Chinese equipment is nonetheless reaching a level of sufficient quality to draw bigger and more lucrative Latin American deals in the future. Further, with their low prices and the fact that arms deals with Chinese defense companies notoriously come with very few strings attached (unlike their American counterparts), purchasing arms from China could prove an increasingly enticing prospect for countries in the region.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Why China’s defense companies are so vehemently seeking to expand into this region is not readily apparent. Of course, the prestige of being a “top tier” arms supplier aids China’s long-term goal of securing great power status. The goal of boosting sales revenue certainly play a part, too. Yet with Latin America making up only around 6 percent of the total global arms transfers from 2011-2015, it is unlikely that sales revenue is the central motivating factor, here. Instead, the attainment of strategic economic goals and building Chinese influence through “soft power” image-building are more likely the key motivating factors behind these sales.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at China’s arms sales relationship with sub-Saharan Africa, a number of striking similarities are evident. Like Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa is a relatively new market for Chinese arms; both regions, until recently, have historically played a relatively minor role in Chinese foreign policy considerations due to their geographical remoteness to China. Also, at under 8 percent of total global arms sales, sales revenue from sub-Saharan African nations is inevitably limited, too. Nevertheless, these factors have not stopped Chinese defense companies from embarking on a mammoth campaign of scattering its weaponry across sub-Saharan Africa in recent years.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Indeed, SIPRI estimates that Chinese sales in the region from 2011-2015 made up 22 percent of the total arms sales to the region during that period. Further, the Aviation Corporation of China (AVIC), one of China’s largest state-owned defense enterprises, <a href="http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-space/support/2015/10/10/chinese-company-builds-growing-african-presence/73438724/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">stated last year</a> that at least 80 percent of the trainer aircraft fleet operated by African air forces now are Chinese-made. And while the vast majority of these sales have been for less sophisticated equipment (such as its armored personnel carriers and trainer aircraft), these sales have nevertheless helped China secure a key strategic goal in the region of developing and diversifying its energy imports from many resource-rich nations in the region. These sales have also helped China’s successful attainment of another strategic goal of building influence in the region through “soft power” image-building (a poll in 2014 showed that China’s favorability among sub-Saharan nations is higher than in any other region in the world, with <a href="http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/country-rating-poll.pdf" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">no surveyed country in the region having less than 65 percent of respondents reporting positive views</a>).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Accordingly, in light of China’s strategic interests in Latin America of <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/chinas-goals-in-south-america/" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">enhancing its economic ties and building its soft power to boost its political influence</a>, a similar arms sales strategy seems to be in operation in Latin America. However, with Latin American states generally having larger defense budgets than those in sub-Saharan Africa, China’s defense companies will have to sell more than simply trainer jets and armored personnel carriers if Beijing is to build a similar level of influence over its Latin American partners.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If Chinese defense companies are able to convince more Latin American leaders like Kirchner that even their most advanced export hardware is of a sufficient quality, their low prices and unobtrusive arms deal conditions may help them pry a number of key deals out of the grasp of the United States, Russia, and other key suppliers in the region, allowing China to take even greater chunks of the market share. In the long run, this could pave the way for China to reap the benefits of enhanced diplomatic relations and economic ties, such as helping secure the lucrative energy deals it so doggedly seeks. Perhaps more worryingly for the United States, China’s influence-building endeavors through these sales would likely negatively impact U.S. influence over the long term in the process.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With Chinese officials typically tight-lipped over their arms sales activities and goals, it remains unclear the extent to which these sales to Latin America are a product of calculated Chinese strategy, or merely a highly advantageous byproduct of their defense companies’ successful engagement with the global arms trade. Nevertheless, whether these trends are out of strategy or serendipity, what is clear is that the sizable benefits to both China and its defense companies suggest that China is set to continue eating its way into the Latin American arms market — and into the United States’ influence in the region — into the future.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: bold; line-height: 18px;">By </span><span itemprop="author" style="font-weight: bold; line-height: 18px;">Allan Nixon</span></span></div>
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<em>Allan Nixon has a master’s in International Relations from the International University of Japan, specializing in East Asian security studies and arms proliferation.</em></div>
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<em style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px;">sourche: </em><span style="background-color: transparent; line-height: 20px;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, serif;"><i>http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/chinas-growing-arms-sales-to-latin-america/</i></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-85953025136770832242016-08-28T11:45:00.003+03:002016-08-28T11:45:54.218+03:00The Stimulus Our Economy Needs<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Future policymakers might choose to consider some additional tools that have been employed by other central banks,” Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20160826a.htm" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">said</a> in a widely watched speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. She was referring to a number of possible monetary steps to help the economy, including potentially the much-debated notion of “helicopter money.” So what is helicopter money? It’s a basic, important policy concept with a truly awful name.</span></div>
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<img alt="The Stimulus Our Economy Needs " height="191" src="https://foreignpolicymag.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/gettyimages-51481254-1.jpg" width="400" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The term essentially refers to a fiscal stimulus that is explicitly funded by newly created money from the central bank, a permanent new injection of funds directly into immediate government spending. Now, the idea that governments, with or without the help of central banks, should spend substantial resources on creating jobs, both directly and through private sector incentives, is widely accepted among economists across the political spectrum. However, calling what might be a perfectly justified period of direct cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities during a period of acute economic weakness “helicopter money,” as <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/helicopter-money-political-control-by-adair-turner-2016-05" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">proponents of the policy have done</a>, almost certainly dooms it to failure.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Former Fed Vice Chairman and Princeton University economist Alan Blinder recently <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/those-money-laden-helicopters-hovering-on-the-horizon-1467846361" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">referred</a> to it, rightly, as an “infelicitous term [that] keeps popping up in the financial press.” Talk of helicopter money has been aroused most recently by the United Kingdom’s disastrous decision to part ways with the European Union and by the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-helicopter-idUSKCN0ZV16H" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">apparent failure</a> of Japan’s expansive monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts to deliver a sustained rise in inflation, much less growth and wages.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The underlying policy idea is <a href="http://bruegel.org/2016/05/the-abandonment-of-counter-cyclical-fiscal-policy/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">sound</a>, even instinctive. When push comes to shove and a majority of the country’s population is struggling to improve its lot, it behooves the economic authorities — from both a social and economic standpoint — to proactively, and perhaps jointly, counter the slump. The difference between the proverbial helicopter drops and the ordinary stimulus of either the monetary or fiscal kind is, in the former, that money is explicitly printed to fund a new round of budget spending, thereby not increasing the Treasury’s debt.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yet the term “helicopter money,” the idea of which was coined by the Nobel Prize-winning monetary economist Milton Friedman in a 1969 paper and<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">revived</a> by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in 2002, when he was member of the board of governors, conjures up images of desperation, rescue, irresponsibility, and even debauchery. After all, what institution values money so little that it would simply dump it from the sky as if it held no value at all?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The dilemma is not dissimilar from the counterintuitive problem of inflation that remains persistently below central banks’ targets, now a pervasive issue in the world’s rich economies. Although inflation is generally seen as hurting consumers, price increases that are too anemic <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/01/27/a-midsummer-disinflation-nightmare-for-the-fed/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">tend to reflect</a> stagnant wages, a poor use of the economy’s resources, underemployment, and a deteriorating standard of living. Yellen said in her speech Friday that the Fed still sees inflation trending back toward 2 percent over the “next few years.” But that’s hardly a ringing endorsement for an inflation-targeting central bank that has missed its goal to the downside for several years running.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In their defense, Friedman and Bernanke were drawing on extreme scenarios to make the point that what at the time was seen as a highly unlikely and occasional economic outcome — deflation in the United States — would not leave the monetary authorities helpless. Indeed, Bernanke’s <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">speech</a> was titled “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here,” in reference to Japan’s prolonged experience with falling prices that signaled a deeper economic malaise.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bernanke regrets using the term. It muddled his message and eventually morphed into a rather glib nickname that stuck: <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2016/04/11-helicopter-money" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Helicopter Ben</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“[U]nder certain extreme circumstances—sharply deficient aggregate demand, exhausted monetary policy, and unwillingness of the legislature to use debt-financed fiscal policies—such programs may be the best available alternative,” Bernanke <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2016/04/11-helicopter-money" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">wrote</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That was 14 years ago. Yet today, in the wake of the Great Recession, isn’t this just where the U.S. economy finds itself? Inflation has fallen short of the Fed’s 2 percent target for several years now while underemployment and long-term joblessness remain pervasive. The world facing American minorities is considerably, and consistently, grimmer, with black unemployment nearly double the white rate.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bernanke’s successor, Yellen, was similarly cautious but also open to the idea of fiscal-monetary cooperation. Asked about the notion of helicopter money in a recent press conference, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20160615.pdf" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">she said</a>, “Normally, you would hope, in an economy with those severe downside risks, monetary and fiscal policy would not be working at cross purposes … but together. Now, whether or not in such extreme circumstances there might be a case for, let’s say, coordination — close coordination with the central bank playing a role in financing fiscal policy — this is something that academics are debating, and it is something that one might legitimately consider.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="pull-quote has-quote" data-pullquote="So how to rescue the policy while jettisoning its ill-conceived name? Calling it “employment insurance” is a potential start." style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So how to rescue the policy while jettisoning its ill-conceived name? Calling it “employment insurance” is a potential start.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So how to rescue the policy while jettisoning its ill-conceived name? Calling it “employment insurance” is a potential start. Everyone is used to the notion of unemployment insurance benefits, which workers receive for a temporary period after they lose their jobs. Why not pay people to work instead? The idea would be to create jobs that are sufficiently low-paying that they don’t compete significantly with private sector alternatives while still giving workers a means of survival and a sense of dignity during a period of transition. For those who need only part-time work, such jobs might fulfill their needs in terms of participation in the labor force. This would take away the usual bout of widespread consumer and market insecurity that comes, after all, from recessions’ impacts on labor markets. And let’s not forget which economic indicator tends to garner the biggest monthly reaction on Wall Street: jobs.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although periodic recessions appear inevitable, U.S. authorities — in particular, the administration (with the power to take big actions) and legislators (with control over budget outlays) — have absolutely no standing arrangement for how to deal with slumps, specifically the large employment losses that always ensue.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Great Recession of 2007-2009 was a case in point. Here was the worst downturn since the Great Depression, and one that came with a fair amount of warning given the persistent troubles in the housing and credit markets that preceded it, yet Congress and the White House had to race to scrape together a $800 billion fiscal stimulus package that was seen, rightly or wrongly, as filled with special favors and far from ideally targeted to boost growth at such a crucial time.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Importantly, spending wasn’t directly targeted at the poorest households despite widespread research showing that group would be most likely to spend the money quickly, for rather obvious reasons. The monetary stimulus, of course, was by design directed at the banks that got us into the financial mess — and that didn’t lend the money quickly but rather hoarded it away. The rich tend to save any stimulus dollars directed at them, especially when economic uncertainty is high and they can afford to wait things out. In the end, critics blamed the Fed’s stimulus policy for exacerbating inequality by boosting the prices of stocks owned primarily by rich Americans while doing little to jolt median wages out of a three-decade slumber.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All told, nearly 9 million jobs were lost during the 2007-2009 slump, not counting the new jobs that were needed to keep up with population growth. The unemployment rate more than doubled to a peak of <a href="http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2009/ted_20091110.htm" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">10.2 percent</a> in October 2009 and took seven years to get back to around 5 percent, seen as normal. Even the current <a href="http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/unemployment-rate-unchanged-at-4-point-9-percent-in-july-2016.htm" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">4.9 percent</a> rate is seen as a poor depiction of the U.S. labor market’s <a href="http://em-views.com/2016/06/29/the-federal-reserve-cant-be-the-worlds-central-bank/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">actual ongoing weakness</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So what would a constructive pro-jobs policy of employment insurance look like? It could take many forms, and, despite any central bank role in funding the stimulus, the decision on how to spend the money would remain fully accountable to the democratic process — in the hands of elected lawmakers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One approach might see Congress adopt a mandate similar to the one it assigned the Fed itself — to maintain low and stable prices while striving for maximum sustainable employment. Such a goal would offer clearer guidelines for when a program of budget spending aided by central bank intervention might be needed, like determining what thresholds of economic pain might trigger its launch.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rather than relying on a spotty, limited system of jobless benefits that can leave the unemployed in or close to poverty, wouldn’t it be better to directly create government jobs in areas where the private sector appears to be falling short? Employer-of-last-resort-type <a href="http://www.cfeps.org/elm07-5.pdf" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">policies</a>, as proposed by the economist Hyman Minsky, where the government generates employment in socially useful sectors that are underserved by the private sector alone — including infrastructure, education, health care, child and elderly care, and the arts — could be optimal.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After all, most people would agree instinctively with Article 23 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the U.N. in 1948, which<a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/UDHR/Documents/UDHR_Translations/eng.pdf" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">states</a>, “Everyone has the right to work, to free choice of employment, to just and favourable conditions of work and to protection against unemployment.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A more conservative, potentially less bureaucratic, way to implement an aggressive employment insurance policy is through a negative income tax like the one proposed by Friedman himself. This would involve a significant expansion of the earned income tax credit that would guarantee a basic stream of income for those earning under a certain threshold.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Whatever the preferred approach, the benefits of an employment insurance policy are fairly clear. “[H]elicopter money of the variety proposed by Milton Friedman some three decades ago does not involve central bank asset purchases. Rather, it involves permanent central bank financing of a government cash grant to the general public,” <a href="https://www.aei.org/publication/the-distinction-is-clear-between-helicopter-money-and-quantitative-easing/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">explains</a> Desmond Lachman, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This would overcome a major weakness of monetary policy, he says: “[B]y directly stimulating aggregate demand rather than by working indirectly through asset price inflation and through encouraging risk-taking … it would spare us from yet another destructive round of asset price booms to be followed by asset price busts.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Opponents of a more active economic policy might reasonably argue that given the low level of public trust in both Congress and the Fed, it might be wishful thinking to get them working in concert. Images of corrupt, wasteful government spending and pet projects are sure to be raised.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, an alternative view is that trust in such institutions is low exactly because they are not doing something like this — not serving constituents in any palpable way or protecting them from the vagaries of an increasingly volatile and uncertain economy. Maybe doing the right thing for once could help turn that perception around. Or, you know, we could just fund <a href="http://gizmodo.com/according-to-airbus-a-flying-car-reality-is-just-aroun-1785545526#_ga=1.126785293.1072841080.1467404094" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">this</a>.</span></div>
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<span class="image-credit" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Photo credit: Alex Wong/Getty Images</span></span></div>
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<span class="image-credit" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #262526; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 24px; text-transform: uppercase;">BY </span><span class="author" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #262526; display: inline-block; font-stretch: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="author" href="http://foreignpolicy.com/author/pedro-nicolaci-da-costa" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Pedro Nicolaci da Costa">PEDRO NICOLACI DA COSTA</a></span></span></span></div>
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<span class="image-credit" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-family: Solido, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">sourche: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/26/the-stimulus-our-economy-needs-helicopter-money-yellen-federal-reserve/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2AEditors%20Picks</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-86971587582614662132016-08-28T11:35:00.000+03:002016-08-28T11:35:07.448+03:00Οι ξεχασμένοι πρόσφυγες της Ευρώπης: Η ανθρωπιστική κρίση στην Ουκρανία<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Τα τελευταία χρόνια, οι διεθνείς τίτλοι έχουν παρουσιάσει ιστορίες και εικόνες της συνεχιζόμενης κρίσης των προσφύγων στην Μέση Ανατολή και τις επιδράσεις της στην Δυτική Ευρώπη [2]. Λίγοι γνωρίζουν, όμως, ότι η τέταρτη μεγαλύτερη πηγή εσωτερικών προσφύγων το 2015 [3] ήταν στην ίδια την Ευρώπη.</span></div>
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<img alt="Αποτέλεσμα εικόνας για Οι ξεχασμένοι πρόσφυγες της Ευρώπης: Η ανθρωπιστική κρίση στην Ουκρανία" height="271" 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" 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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', 'Bitstream Vera Serif', serif; font-size: 10.998px; font-style: italic; line-height: 15.0013px;">Πρόσφυγες φεύγουν από την ανατολική ουκρανική πόλη Ντεμπαλτσέβε, τον Φεβρουάριο του 2015. GLEB GARANICH / REUTERS</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Η Ουκρανία είναι τώρα συντροφιά με το Ιράκ, την Συρία και την Υεμένη ως μια από τους κορυφαίους παραγωγούς εσωτερικών προσφύγων στον κόσμο. Οι αριθμοί ποικίλλουν, αλλά σύμφωνα με τις περισσότερες εκτιμήσεις υπάρχουν περίπου 1,7 εκατομμύρια εσωτερικά εκτοπισμένοι στην Ουκρανία και άλλα 1,4 εκατομμύρια Ουκρανών που ζουν ως πρόσφυγες στην Δυτική Ευρώπη και την Ρωσία. Οι πρόσφυγες πρώτα έφυγαν από την Κριμαία μετά την προσάρτησή της από την Ρωσία στις αρχές του 2014, αλλά ο αριθμός τους αυξήθηκε μετά από τον εμφύλιο πόλεμο που ξέσπασε, ακολουθώντας την υποστηριζόμενη από την Ρωσία διακήρυξη [4] των αυτονομιστικών Λαϊκών Δημοκρατιών του Ντόνετσκ και του Λουάνσκ [5] στην ανατολική Ουκρανία. Οι δύο συμφωνίες κατάπαυσης του πυρός μετά από διεθνή διαμεσολάβηση -Μινσκ και Μινσκ ΙΙ [6]- έκτοτε απέτυχαν να παραγάγουν μια διαρκή ειρήνη.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Δύο από τους συν-συγγραφείς αυτού του άρθρου έχουν μόλις επιστρέψει από επί τόπου έρευνα στην Ουκρανία, όπου ερευνήσαμε το πώς οι εσωτερικοί πρόσφυγες έχουν αναπτύξει στρατηγικές για να επιβιώσουν και πώς η ουκρανική κυβέρνηση τους υποστηρίζει -ή αποτυγχάνει να τους υποστηρίξει.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ΠΟΥΘΕΝΑ ΝΑ ΠΑΣ</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ένα από τα σημαντικότερα προβλήματα που αντιμετωπίζουν οι πρόσφυγες είναι ότι υπόκεινται σε βία και από τις δύο πλευρές της σύγκρουσης. Μια έκθεση του Ιουλίου 2016 από την Διεθνή Αμνηστία [7] και το Παρατηρητήριο Ανθρωπίνων Δικαιωμάτων, για παράδειγμα, καταδίκασε τόσο την ρωσική όσο και την ουκρανική κυβέρνηση [8] για παραβιάσεις των ανθρωπίνων δικαιωμάτων και την χρήση βασανιστηρίων στα αμφισβητούμενα εδάφη. Εκείνοι που είχαν διαφύγει από τις ζώνες των συγκρούσεων, μας είπαν τρομακτικές ιστορίες για φίλους, γείτονες, και μέλη της οικογένειάς τους που απλά εξαφανίστηκαν, συχνά ποτέ να επιστρέψουν. Άλλοι μίλησαν για αρσενικά μέλη της οικογένειάς τους που έφυγαν για να αποφύγουν την υποχρεωτική στράτευση από τους αυτονομιστές. Μια γυναίκα εξιστόρησε με δάκρυα την δολοφονία του συζύγου της και την καταστροφή του σπιτιού της, αλλά δεν γνώριζε ποια πλευρά ήταν υπεύθυνη. Μερικοί, αντίθετα, αφηγήθηκαν μικρές πράξεις ανθρωπισμού, όπως η γυναίκα που περιέγραψε αυτονομιστές στρατιώτες να βοηθούν για να μεταφερθούν τα παιδιά της στην ασφάλεια καθώς κειτόταν σε μια δημόσια πλατεία, τραυματισμένη σοβαρά από βομβαρδισμούς.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Αλλά ακόμα και στους εκτοπισμένους οι οποίοι είναι σε θέση να φτάσουν στην ασφάλεια, η ουκρανική κυβέρνηση προσφέρει ελάχιστη βοήθεια. Οι περισσότεροι πρέπει να βρουν την δική τους κατοικία και συχνά παλεύουν για να το πράξουν. Στους πρόσφυγες λένε να ζουν με οικογένειες εθελοντών οικοδεσποτών ή σε μακρινούς συγγενείς, αλλά στην συνέχεια αισθάνονται υποχρεωμένοι να προχωρήσουν μετά από ένα-δυο μήνες, είτε επειδή δεν ήθελαν να επιβαρύνουν είτε επειδή ήταν σαφώς ο καιρός να προχωρήσουν. Συχνά καταλήγουν σε δαπανηρές αλλά εξαθλιωμένες και υπερπλήρεις ενοικιαζόμενες κατοικίες. Μια γυναίκα, αφότου τελικά αποφάσισε να μεταφέρει την οικογένειά της από την αυτονομιστική πρωτεύουσα του Ντόνετσκ στην ελεγχόμενη από την κυβέρνηση πόλη του Dnipropetrovsk, δεν βρήκε πουθενά για να ζήσουν κατά την άφιξή τους. Ένας φίλος τής έδωσε τον αριθμό τηλεφώνου ενός άνδρα ο οποίος ήταν γνωστός για την παροχή στέγης στους πρόσφυγες. Μετά από μια τηλεφωνική συνέντευξη, πήρε την μητέρα της και τον γιο της και μετακόμισαν στο καταφύγιο Χάρκοβο, μια θερινή παιδική κατασκήνωση που έχει μετατραπεί και έχει φιλοξενήσει 5.000 πρόσφυγες από την έναρξη του πολέμου.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Για να στηρίξει τους εκτοπισμένους, η ουκρανική κυβέρνηση δημιούργησε μια μικρή δεξαμενή κοινωνικών παροχών για να βοηθήσει με την ενοικίαση, τα τρόφιμα και τα φάρμακα για όσους εγγράφονται στο κράτος και μπορούν να αποδείξουν το καθεστώς του πρόσφυγα. Αυτές [οι κοινωνικές παροχές] περιλαμβάνουν κονδύλια που προορίζονται για ειδικές ομάδες, όπως οι μεγάλες οικογένειες, οι μονογονεϊκές οικογένειες, καθώς και τα άτομα με ειδικές ανάγκες. Ωστόσο, ένας πρόσφυγας με τον οποίο μιλήσαμε -μια μητέρα με δύο μικρά παιδιά- ισχυρίστηκε ότι δεν μπορούσε να καρπωθεί τα οφέλη μιας μητέρας, επειδή δεν είχε καμία τεκμηρίωση για τον θάνατο του συζύγου της. Αν και δεν παρείχε λεπτομέρειες, ο σύζυγός της μπορεί να σκοτώθηκε πολεμώντας για τους αυτονομιστές των οποίων οι οικογένειες αποκλείονται από την κρατική στήριξη.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Πολλοί πρόσφυγες διηγούνται ιστορίες ταπείνωσης, ενώ προσπαθούν να εγγραφούν επισήμως ως pereselenets, ή αλλιώς «μέτοικοι» -ένας προσβλητικός όρος που χρησιμοποιείται συνήθως για να περιγράψει τους πρόσφυγες, ο οποίος αγνοεί την έλλειψη της επιλογής τους και το τραύμα της εκτόπισης. Μια νεαρή γυναίκα, η «Ιρίνα», περιέγραψε το πώς ξόδεψε ημέρες για να πηγαίνει από το ένα γραφείο στο άλλο σε μια προσπάθεια να εγγραφεί για παροχές, μόνο και μόνο για να αμφισβητηθεί από έναν γραφειοκράτη με την αιτιολογία ότι είχε μια δουλειά και δεν χρειαζόταν την υποστήριξη της κυβέρνησης. Δεν είχε κανένα τρόπο να ασκήσει έφεση.</span></div>
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<a href="http://foreignaffairs.gr/article-images/26082016-1.jpg" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="26082016-1.jpg" height="426" src="http://foreignaffairs.gr/article-images/26082016-1.jpg" style="border: 0px;" title="26082016-1.jpg" width="626" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ένα αγόρι φεύγει από τις συγκρούσεις στην ανατολική Ουκρανία, τον Φεβρουάριο του 2015. STRINGER / REUTERS<br />------------------------------------------------</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Οι δυσκολίες της εγγραφής, συμπεριλαμβανομένης μιας χαοτικής γραφειοκρατίας και αδιαφανών κανόνων γύρω από τα οφέλη, στερούν πολλούς από την πρόσβαση όχι μόνο σε κυβερνητική βοήθεια (όσο κι αν είναι πενιχρή), αλλά και σε βασικές ανάγκες, όπως η στέγαση, η εκπαίδευση και η ιατρική περίθαλψη, για τις οποίες απαιτείται επίσημη καταχώριση. Μετά την εγγραφή, ωστόσο, οι εσωτερικοί πρόσφυγες στερούνται το δικαίωμα ψήφου στις τοπικές εκλογές αν δεν εγκαταλείψουν το καθεστώς του πρόσφυγα.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Τα ζητήματα αυτά επιδεινώνονται από την προφανή υποψία της ουκρανικής κυβέρνησης σχετικά με τους εσωτερικούς πρόσφυγες, περισσότερο από το ήμισυ των οποίων είναι ηλικιωμένοι. Τον περασμένο Φεβρουάριο, το Υπουργείο Κοινωνικής Πολιτικής [9] ανέστειλε τις πληρωμές προς όφελος των εκτοπισμένων μέχρι να μπορέσουν να επαληθευθούν οι διευθύνσεις τους, παρά την έλλειψη ενός συστήματος επαλήθευσης. Οι συντάξεις έκτοτε δεν έχουν δοθεί στους ανθρώπους που ζουν στα «προσωρινά κατεχόμενα εδάφη» της Ανατολής, καθώς και από εκείνους σε περιοχές που ελέγχονται από την κυβέρνηση και δεν μπορούν να αποδείξουν τον τόπο κατοικίας τους. Ωστόσο, οι ιδιοκτήτες συχνά αποφεύγουν την έκδοση μισθωτηρίων και άλλων εγγράφων, προκειμένου να αποκρύψουν εισοδήματα από ενοίκια, και μεταξύ των δεκάδων προσφύγων που μας μίλησαν, μόνο μια χούφτα θα μπορούσαν να μας δείξουν τα συμφωνητικά ενοικίασης. Πολλοί ηλικιωμένοι Ουκρανοί απλά επιλέγουν να μείνουν στα κατεχόμενα εδάφη και να υπομείνουν τους βομβαρδισμούς καθώς το σπίτι τους είναι ο μόνος τους πόρος.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ΜΙΑ ΧΕΙΡΑ ΒΟΗΘΕΙΑΣ</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Αλλά εκεί όπου η κυβέρνηση έχει αποτύχει, οι απλοί πολίτες της Ουκρανίας έχουν παρέμβει: Είναι εκείνοι που έχουν εγκαταλείψει τις δουλειές τους για να εργαστούν για ανθρωπιστικούς λόγους ή εργάζονται εθελοντικά στον ελεύθερο χρόνο τους, μερικές φορές με σημαντικό κίνδυνο για τον εαυτό τους. Μερικοί, μέχρι που έχουν ιδρύσει μη κυβερνητικές οργανώσεις (ΜΚΟ). Μια τέτοια, η Proliska [10] -τώρα εταίρος της Ύπατης Αρμοστείας των Ηνωμένων Εθνών για τους Πρόσφυγες- παρέχει ανθρωπιστική βοήθεια και στις δύο πλευρές της σύγκρουσης, μέχρι ο ηγέτης της, ο Evgeny Kaplin, να μπει στην μαύρη λίστα της κυβέρνησης, προφανώς για την προσφορά βοήθειας προς τους αυτονομιστές. Άλλοι, όπως η CrimeaSOS [11] και η Station Kharkiv (Σταθμός του Χάρκοβο) [12], παρέχουν νομική βοήθεια, τρόφιμα, ρούχα, ψυχολογική υποστήριξη, υπηρεσίες απασχόλησης, και άλλες μορφές βοήθειας. Διεθνείς κυβερνήσεις και ΜΚΟ έχουν προσφέρει περαιτέρω στήριξη.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Άτυπα δίκτυα ανθρωπιστικής βοήθειας, που αποτελούνται από ιδιώτες και ΜΚΟ, έχουν αναπτυχθεί αυθόρμητα για να γίνουν το μοναδικό μέσο υποστήριξης για πολλούς από τους εσωτερικά εκτοπισμένους. Κραυγές για βοήθεια -που γίνονται μέσω τηλεφώνου και Facebook- απαντήθηκαν από απλούς Ουκρανούς, οι οποίοι προσέφεραν γεύματα επί μήνες για τους εκατοντάδες χιλιάδες ανθρώπους που προσπαθούν να ξεφύγουν από την βία και την ρωσική επιθετικότητα. Αυτή η ηρωική γενναιοδωρία ξεπέρασε κατά πολύ ό,τι η ουκρανική κυβέρνηση έχει προσφέρει στους ανθρώπους της.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ωστόσο, αν και η ουκρανική κυβέρνηση δεν έχει εθνική στρατηγική για την διαχείριση της ανθρωπιστικής κρίσης, υπάρχουν τουλάχιστον κάποιες ενδείξεις μιας αλλαγής στην προσέγγισή της. Τον Απρίλιο του 2016, η κυβέρνηση δημιούργησε ένα νέο Υπουργείο για τα Προσωρινά Κατεχόμενα Εδάφη και τους Εσωτερικά Εκτοπισμένους της Ουκρανίας. Το Υπουργείο είναι επιφορτισμένο με τον συντονισμό της διεθνούς και τοπικής βοήθειας, την βελτίωση των συνθηκών για τους εκτοπισμένους, την επανένταξή τους στην κοινωνία της Ουκρανίας, και την προστασία των νομίμων δικαιωμάτων τους. Το Κίεβο συνεργάζεται επίσης με τον Διεθνή Οργανισμό Μετανάστευσης για την ανάπτυξη ενός συστήματος ελέγχου (που σύντομα θα υλοποιηθεί [13]) για την κατανομή συντάξεων και άλλων πληρωμών αρωγής σε μια εποχή που η κυβέρνηση αντιμετωπίζει οικονομική κρίση.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Οι Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες, η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, και οι διεθνείς κυβερνητικοί οργανισμοί θα πρέπει να χρησιμοποιήσουν την υποστήριξή τους για την Ουκρανία ως μέσο για να πιέσουν το Κίεβο να σταματήσει τις παραβιάσεις των ανθρωπίνων δικαιωμάτων και να αρχίσει να οικοδομεί μια στρατηγική για την ενίσχυση των εσωτερικών προσφύγων του. Τόσο οι Βρυξέλλες όσο και η Ουάσινγκτον έχουν ήδη αφιερώσει εκατομμύρια για να βοηθήσουν στην ανοικοδόμηση της χώρας, με σχέδια για ακόμη περισσότερα -ο Αμερικανός γερουσιαστής Τζον Μακέιν [14], για παράδειγμα, ανακοίνωσε πρόσφατα ότι το ποσό της Γερουσίας από τον νόμο περί Εξουσιοδότησης Εθνικής Άμυνας παρέχει στην Ουκρανία έως και 500 εκατομμύρια δολάρια σε στρατιωτική βοήθεια κατά το οικονομικό έτος 2017. Περαιτέρω βοήθεια στην Ουκρανία, ωστόσο, θα πρέπει να εξαρτάται από την βελτιωμένη συμπεριφορά τόσο προς τους πολίτες της όσο και τους εσωτερικά εκτοπισμένους.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Οι ηγέτες στην Ουάσιγκτον και αλλού θα πρέπει να ενεργούν νωρίτερα παρά αργότερα για την αντιμετώπιση της ανθρωπιστικής κρίσης στην Ουκρανία. Έχουν την δύναμη να επηρεάσουν το Κίεβο, και το να επιτρέπουν σε αυτή την κρίση να φουντώνει θα φέρει μαζί του την απειλή επίμονης αστάθειας στην άκρη μιας Ευρώπης που δείχνει εύθραυστη.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://foreignaffairs.gr/author/beth-mitchneck" style="line-height: 15.0013px;">Beth Mitchneck</a><span style="line-height: 15.0013px;">, </span><a href="http://foreignaffairs.gr/author/jane-zavisca" style="line-height: 15.0013px; text-decoration: none;">Jane Zavisca</a><span style="line-height: 15.0013px;"> και </span><a href="http://foreignaffairs.gr/author/theodore-p-gerber" style="line-height: 15.0013px; text-decoration: none;">Theodore P. Gerber</a></span></div>
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ΠΗΓΗ: http://foreignaffairs.gr/articles/70943/beth-mitchneck-jane-zavisca-kai-theodore-p-gerber/oi-ksexasmenoi-prosfyges-tis-eyropis?page=show</div>
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Στα αγγλικά: <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2016-08-24/europes-forgotten-refugees-0" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2016-08-24/europes-forgotten-refugees-0">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2016-08-24/europes-forgo...</a></div>
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Σύνδεσμοι:<br />[1] <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100924090" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100924090">http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100924090</a><br />[2] <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjRjJzXwtrOAhVGlx4KHXytBMoQFggqMAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignaffairs.com%2Farticles%2Feurope%2F2016-03-29%2Feuropes-lousy-deal-turkey&usg=AFQjCNGf0IRhL1hzaTE1on2fJ2qMqTBYYg&sig2=RpOP7n3HlK_d6MqJTCakgQ&bvm=bv.129759880,d.dmo" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjRjJzXwtrOAhVGlx4KHXytBMoQFggqMAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignaffairs.com%2Farticles%2Feurope%2F2016-03-29%2Feuropes-lousy-deal-turkey&usg=AFQjCNGf0IRhL1hzaTE1on2fJ2qMqTBYYg&sig2=RpOP7n3HlK_d6MqJTCakgQ&bvm=bv.129759880,d.dmo">https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&...</a><br />[3] <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/database/" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="http://www.internal-displacement.org/database/">http://www.internal-displacement.org/database/</a><br />[4] <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2015-09-09/forcing-kiev-s-hand" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2015-09-09/forcing-kiev-s-hand">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2015-09-09/forcing-kiev-...</a><br />[5] <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/eastern-europe-caucasus/2015-03-17/broken-ukraine" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/eastern-europe-caucasus/2015-03-17/broken-ukraine">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/eastern-europe-caucasus/2015-03-...</a><br />[6] <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/24/europe/ukraine-russia-violence/index.html" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/24/europe/ukraine-russia-violence/index.html">http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/24/europe/ukraine-russia-violence/index.html</a><br />[7] <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/07/torture-and-secret-detention-on-both-sides-of-the-conflict-line-in-ukraine/" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/07/torture-and-secret-detention-on-both-sides-of-the-conflict-line-in-ukraine/">https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/07/torture-and-secret-detent...</a><br />[8] <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjuuIuXw9rOAhXLWx4KHeM6ANUQFggrMAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignaffairs.com%2Farticles%2Fukraine%2F2016-06-21%2Fukraines-fog-war&usg=AFQjCNFvagIswrrQVJ7wUiXVlHBiGyaurw&sig2=MvVExKY7tiFAejTNNN7xtA&bvm=bv.129759880,d.dmo" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjuuIuXw9rOAhXLWx4KHeM6ANUQFggrMAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignaffairs.com%2Farticles%2Fukraine%2F2016-06-21%2Fukraines-fog-war&usg=AFQjCNFvagIswrrQVJ7wUiXVlHBiGyaurw&sig2=MvVExKY7tiFAejTNNN7xtA&bvm=bv.129759880,d.dmo">https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&...</a><br />[9] <a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/protection-cluster-fact-sheet-march-2016-enruuk" style="color: #004276;" title="http://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/protection-cluster-fact-sheet-march-2016-enruuk">http://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/protection-cluster-fact-sheet-march-...</a><br />[10] <a href="https://www.facebook.com/proliskamission/" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="https://www.facebook.com/proliskamission/">https://www.facebook.com/proliskamission/</a><br />[11] <a href="http://krymsos.com/en/" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="http://krymsos.com/en/">http://krymsos.com/en/</a><br />[12] <a href="http://novaukraine.org/station-kharkiv/" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="http://novaukraine.org/station-kharkiv/">http://novaukraine.org/station-kharkiv/</a><br />[13] <a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/single-register-idps-operate-test-mode-next-week" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="http://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/single-register-idps-operate-test-mode-next-week">http://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/single-register-idps-operate-test-mo...</a><br />[14] <a href="http://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=5FF9EE8F-3DE2-472B-80E6-E7B378E6A88D" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="http://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=5FF9EE8F-3DE2-472B-80E6-E7B378E6A88D">http://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=5FF9EE8F...</a></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-46788612216862268902016-08-28T11:27:00.000+03:002016-08-28T11:27:07.140+03:00Greece to foster close partnership of European South<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On <strong>September 9</strong>, leaders of Greece, Italy, Malta, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal and France will meet in Athens invited by Greek PM Alexis Tsipras to discuss on a new vision for Europe. The <strong>"Athens Summit"</strong>, as it is called, aims to set the pace for the challenges EU and Eurozone are faced with, especially after Brexit and the dire effects of austerity. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <strong>agenda</strong> will focus on the need for a new strategy for Europe, a <strong>new social mode</strong>l that will emphasize on the need to get away with catastrophic austerity, the <strong>refugee issue</strong>, which is about to come back to news headlines as the EU-Turkey deal and the relocation program are not efficiently developed. Each one of these countries has its own national interest and concerns for the coming period, but there is one strong component that brings them together: the aim to <strong>strategically change the course of events in Europe</strong> and stimulate sustainable growth.</span><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />For <strong>Greece</strong> and the ruling <strong>Syriza</strong> party it is more than necessary to <strong>build wide alliances with progressive and democratic forces in Europe</strong>, even if it takes to get deep into the seas of socialist political powers to extract these parts that have achieved to keep distances from neoliberalism and the conservative devour of the European People's Party (EPP). The <strong>European Socialist Party has been struggling to identify itself</strong> in the last seven years with many fractions surfacing and pressing for a growth-oriented model in Eurozone<strong>. For Syriza it is of vital importance to shift negative balances in Eurozone</strong>, the European Council and the European Parliament, and try to influence the essence and topics of the agenda of the coming months and years.<br /><br />Matteo Renzi and François Hollande are both squeezed electorally. <strong>Renzi has a referendum -over the constitutional reform- to win </strong>while Beppe Grillo and his Movement of Five Stars are dynamically entering the stage waiting Renzi in the corner. For <strong>Hollande</strong>, his popularity is shrinking day by day, especially after passing a<strong>controversial labor law and facing a mounting pressure on security issues</strong>after the bomb attacks in Paris and Nice. The race for the presidential candidacy in his party seems to be a lost case for the moment, but we should not be that certain as the French political scene has a unique way to give Presidents (and former Presidents) an unexpected second chance. For the time being, the biggest problem in French politics is the <strong>consistent rise of Le Pen</strong> and of Front National, a once reactionary, populist and anti-migrant party that has turned to be a overly systemic one with strong presence in urban centers and the periphery.<br /><br />On the other side, it is not yet certain if <strong>Mariano Rajoy</strong> will come in Athens. If he is smart enough, he will do so, aiming at engulfing parts of the electorate in Spain that vie for a different political and social model for Europe, <strong>taking clear advantage in the domestic political scene</strong>, given the fragile balances that have been created for all parties after the national elections and the <strong>possibility for another, third round of elections later this year</strong>.<br /><br />By accepting Greek PM's proposal, Rajoy will gain significantly in these parts of the society that support the Socialist Party,<strong> further weakening the role of Sanchez within his party's rivalries</strong>. At the same time, the arrival of Rajoy would also be a positive development for Alexis Tsipras making it less difficult for him to prove two things: that he is literally willing <strong>to give a fresh air in Europe seating at the same table with socialists and conservatives</strong>, the ones that have fiercely fought him until 2015 and abandoned him (many times) diplomatically during the last 1,5 years. Furthermore, he will also have the chance to achieve<strong> a major blow to the conservative family of EPP</strong> that has so faithfully endorsed austerity politics since 2010, by taking Rajoy into an ideological field of policy that conservatives have never felt comfortable before, i.e. how to create "another Europe" with jobs, growth and social justice. <br /><br />The "Athens Summit" seems to be a <strong>great opportunity for everyone invited</strong> to develop and serve their personal, political agenda under a common cause: to fight against austerity and foster a close partnership of the European South toward that end. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-align: left;">by</span><span style="text-align: left;"> Miguel Coelho and Jo</span><span style="text-align: left;">ão</span><span style="text-align: left;">Texeira</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="position: relative; text-align: left;"><strong>Miguel Coelho and João</strong><strong>Texeira </strong></em><em style="position: relative; text-align: left;"><strong>are</strong></em><strong style="text-align: left;"><em style="position: relative;"> Policy Analysts at Bridging Europe</em></strong></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-20869170563196689952016-08-28T11:23:00.002+03:002016-08-28T11:23:25.022+03:00Protests threaten China’s nuclear energy plans<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">NIMBYism is on the rise in China, and without better dialogue between stakeholders, threatens to undermine Beijing’s nuclear plans and efforts to meet its COP21 goals.</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">Over the past two weeks, thousands of residents of Lianyungang, a town in Jiangsu province, have gathered,</span><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-nuclearpower-idUSKCN10L0CX" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">halting preparations</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> for a proposed nuclear waste reprocessing plant. Lianyungang is one of six sites under consideration for the </span><a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/999724.shtml" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">project</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">, but the two companies developing the plant, China National Nuclear Co. (CNNC) and France’s Areva, have not yet decided on a final location.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">China’s ambitious nuclear plans</span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">The proposed fuel reprocessing center would recycle spent fuel to create new fissile material. This process also reduces the final volume of nuclear waste that needs to be stored. Currently, spent fuel is stored onsite at the power plant, usually first in cooling pools and then in dry casks. Long term storage facilities, such as the controversial Yucca mountain repository in Nevada, have been unsuccessful in gaining regulatory approval. However, on-site waste storage is not viable in the long term, and fuel reprocessing centers, like the proposed $15 billion CNNC-Areva project, will be critical to the viability of </span><a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/02/forecasting-chinas-nuclear-industry-growth-in-2016/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">nuclear energy in China.</span></a></span></div>
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<a href="http://i1.wp.com/globalriskinsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/china-vs-us-nuclear-power.jpg" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><img alt="china-vs-us-nuclear-power" class="aligncenter wp-image-22824" height="329" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" src="http://i1.wp.com/globalriskinsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/china-vs-us-nuclear-power.jpg?resize=600%2C329" srcset="http://i1.wp.com/globalriskinsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/china-vs-us-nuclear-power.jpg?w=607 607w, http://i1.wp.com/globalriskinsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/china-vs-us-nuclear-power.jpg?resize=300%2C165 300w" style="background: transparent; border: none; display: block; height: auto !important; margin: 5px auto; max-width: 100%; opacity: 1; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;" width="600" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">China currently has the </span><a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">fastest growing</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> civil nuclear program in the world, with 34 reactors online and 20 under construction. The 13th Five Year Plan, released in March 2016, outlined a goal of reaching 58 GWe of nuclear power capacity by 2020. To meet this goal, China will have to build reactors at a rate of eight new reactors per year between now and 2020.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">The town of Lianyungang is already home to the Tianwan power plant, a complex that houses two 1,000 MW reactors. Phase II (Tianwan 3 and 4) are currently under construction, and Phase III (Tianwan units 5 and 6) gained approval in December 2015; approval that had been suspended after the </span><a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/03/five-years-after-fukushima-japans-nuclear-sector-still-frozen/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">Fukushima</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> Daiichi meltdowns. Tianwan 3 is expected to come online this year and Tianwan 4 in 2017. Tianwan 5 should enter commercial operation in 2021, if construction proceeds as planned.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">Chinese state media has attributed the movement in Lianyungang to </span><a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/999952.shtml" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">“nimbyism.”</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> The NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) mentality has led to the suspension or cancellation of other industrial projects in China, such as praxylene or waste incinerator plants.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lack of public input fuels opposition</span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">There is growing advocacy in China for an expanded role for public input in planning these projects – currently decisions at the planning stages are made with little input from residents: “f</span><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">or many local residents, there is no absolute guarantee that those projects, if built in their neighborhood, can be 100 percent safe. If there is some harm, they will bear the brunt of the costs and risks. The best way to defuse their suspicions is to make the projects transparent and involve the public.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">The nimbyism surge is due to increased awareness on the part of the public of the </span><a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/01/meet-the-companies-cashing-in-on-chinas-pollution-crisis/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">environmental issues</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">facing China, as well as a lack of appreciation for the public good that would be provided by these industrial projects.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">As revealed by the Lianyungang’s protests, a sticking point for China’s nuclear development moving forward will be local opposition to the industry in affected communities. </span><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235987647_Public_participation_and_trust_in_nuclear_power_development_in_China" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">A study</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> carried out in 2012, in Shandong province, surveying residents living within the vicinity of the Haiyang power plant found that residents were largely uninformed on nuclear power in their area, the concentration of decision making within national agencies and industry, which when compounded by a lack of accessible information, resulted in a low level of trust in the decision making apparatus.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">Similarly, a 2012 </span><a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3399216/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">survey</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> of residents near the Tianwan power plant found widespread concern about the safety of nuclear power plants, particularly in the event of a nuclear accident. While the degree of public acceptance may vary, China’s nuclear industry and regulation process needs to work to create more platforms on which they can promote engagement and make information more accessible to the public.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">China has made it clear that nuclear power will play a significant role in the country’s </span><a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/06/chinas-energy-deregulation-overshadows-aramco-ipo/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">energy mix</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">. Indeed, the incorporation of nuclear power is China’s integral to Beijing keeping its COP21 commitments, as it provides a low-carbon replacement for coal-fired electricity.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, the key to success for nuclear energy in China is effective communication between the nuclear industry and the communities within which it operates, to ensure that residents and community stakeholders are given sufficient information to understand the benefits of nuclear power. Given China’s infamous problems with air pollution, residents should have an interest in protecting a stable source of zero-carbon energy in their communities.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Advocates of nuclear power need a better vehicle to reach and work with community stakeholders; without dialogue between communities and industry representatives, public opinion and irrational safety fears could impede the continued development of nuclear energy in China.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/author/rosalind-reischer/" rel="author" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; line-height: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Posts by Rosalind Reischer"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">by Rosalind Reischer</span></a></span></div>
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sourche: http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/08/nimbyism-threatens-china-nuclear-plans/</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-85512113669403212222016-08-14T15:15:00.000+03:002016-08-14T15:16:10.662+03:00Gazprom Soldiers on With Nord Stream II<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<img alt="Αποτέλεσμα εικόνας για Gazprom Soldiers on With Nord Stream II" height="320" 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" 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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Poland has achieved a significant victory in its battle against German and Russian energy collaboration. Daunted by Polish regulations, five international giants in the natural gas industry announced Aug. 12 that they had pulled out of an agreement to join Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom in the <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/nord-stream-ii-gazprom-promotes-new-pipeline" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">Nord Stream II AG consortium</a>. The consortium — which <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/russias-natural-gas-giant-falters" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">Gazprom</a><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"> </strong>currently owns in its entirety — will oversee the construction and operation of the <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/nord-stream-ii-divisive-pipeline" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">controversial Nord Stream II pipeline</a>, which is set to enter service in 2019. The pullout leaves Gazprom to move forward with the 55 billion-cubic-meter natural gas pipeline project, estimated to cost between $8 billion and $11 billion, by itself, and it could have serious consequences across Northern and Central Europe. Even so, Gazprom will persevere.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Analysis</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Germany has been one of the strongest supporters of the Nord Stream II project. The proposed pipeline would replace the transit agreement between Kiev and Gazprom, which expires in 2019, <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090113_russian_gas_trap" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">moving natural gas from Russia to Europe</a> while skirting the aging infrastructure and politically delicate situation in Ukraine. To do this, it will traverse Germany to supply natural gas to the Austrian hub of Baumgarten. For Poland, this is a problem. As it stands, Germany and Russia are Poland's only options for natural gas. A closer relationship between those two countries would give them greater leverage over Poland. Moreover, the country does not want Gazprom to be able to send more natural gas to Germany without it first passing through its borders, since otherwise, Gazprom could then conceivably cut off natural gas supplies to or negotiate harder terms with Poland. Gazprom has argued that building new pipelines would be cheaper than rehabilitating and modernizing the Ukrainian route, a claim that many of Nord Stream II's opponents, including Poland, find suspect.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.stratfor.com/interactive/interactive-veins-influence" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img alt="" height="207" src="https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/stratfor_small/public/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-13%20at%2010.03.21%20AM.png?itok=nmsW1peF" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; display: block; height: auto; max-width: 100%; outline: none;" typeof="foaf:Image" width="300" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><a href="https://www.stratfor.com/interactive/interactive-veins-influence" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">Interactive: Veins of Influence</a><span class="free-tag" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background: rgb(217, 109, 0); border-radius: 3px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.77778em; margin: 0px 0.55556em; outline: none; padding: 0px 0.66667em; text-shadow: none; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;">FREE</span></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Though the consortium was registered outside Poland, it was nevertheless subject to the country's anti-competition rules, since the companies involved all do considerable business there. For months, Gazprom and its former partners have worked to get the approval for their consortium from Urzedu Ochrony Konkurencji i Konsumentow (UOKiK), the government body in charge of regulating competition in Poland. Originally scheduled to rule on the partnership agreement in June, UOKiK delayed the decision until Aug. 31 before issuing a statement of objections to the consortium's prospective members in July. According to the statement, UOKiK found that the agreement and resulting consortium would strengthen Gazprom's advantage in the Polish natural gas market and limit competition in the sector. UOKiK gave the partners four weeks (until Aug. 19) to respond to the objections, but the Western companies — Uniper<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;">, </strong>Engie, OMV, Royal Dutch/Shell and Wintershall — evidently felt as if they could not meet the regulators' demands under the current agreement and decided to pull out.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">A Series of Hurdles</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Despite the uncertainty surrounding the project, Gazprom has prioritized the Nord Stream II, diverting money toward it even at the expense of other projects, such as the extension of the Power of Siberia pipeline into China. The company must now decide whether to proceed with the pipeline project on its own or to try to build another consortium with a different structure to implement it. In the meantime, it has been moving forward, issuing tenders for pipe and discussing financing options internally and with the Kremlin. (Nord Stream II AG was likely planning to fund about 30 percent of the project by itself, borrowing the rest from financial institutions.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Even if it does not find other partners quickly, Gazprom can afford to keep going with the project on its own for now. Though pipe deliveries are set to begin in September, construction on the two pipelines that will form Nord Stream II is not scheduled to start until 2018. By then, Gazprom's resolve to build Nord Stream II may have wavered, depending on whether it feels that other projects, for instance, the <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/image/russia-new-strategy-new-pipeline" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">TurkStream pipeline</a>, are more important. The <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/russia-keeps-its-friends-close-and-turkey-closer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">recent reconciliation</a><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"> </strong>between Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin has revived talks over TurkStream, which were derailed in late 2015 when Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As big an obstacle as Poland's UOKiK has been for Gazprom, the company faces even greater ones. The European Commission is currently deciding whether offshore pipelines fall under the Third Energy Package (TEP) regulations, which prohibit companies from owning the pipeline through which they transmit and sell their own natural gas. The German government, Gazprom and its former Western partners have all argued that the existing TEP legislation does not apply to offshore pipelines, but the European Commission has no official position (it was supposed to make a ruling in July). If the commission decides that that the TEP regulations apply to Nord Stream II, the project will be even more difficult to advance. (Germany will likely continue to pressure the European Commission to avoid such an outcome.) Securing downstream infrastructure to support the Nord Stream II will also pose a challenge. The Nord Stream I pipeline, which follows roughly the same route, is currently limited to roughly 75 percent capacity because of the TEP and similar regulations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Risks Worth the Reward</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">These complications stand to stymie Russia's efforts in Northern and Central Europe. New supplies from global liquid natural gas markets, including Central Asia, and EU regulators' <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/building-european-energy-market" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">success in preventing monopolies</a> from developing in any single country has made the European natural gas market more competitive. Facing growing competition, Gazprom is working to improve its capacity to deliver natural gas to Europe, at a lower cost and with more flexibility than it has now with the Ukrainian pipeline. Much of the Nord Stream II's intent was to supply Germany and its neighbors with natural gas using a more direct, and potentially cheaper, route than the one through Ukraine.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Beyond its economic benefits, the proposed pipeline has political implications, too. Now that Ukraine can source nearly all of its natural gas from European countries, Moscow no longer enjoys the <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/russia-natural-gas-losing-its-potency-political-weapon" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">power that it once had over Kiev</a> (though, ultimately, the natural gas is still Russian). Russia does not want to do any favors for a Ukrainian government that is not under its influence. Unless Gazprom builds an <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russias-prospects-pipeline-europe-look-bleak" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">alternative pipeline to Europe</a>, Ukraine can use the existing route as leverage in negotiating with Russia. This is a political and financial vulnerability that neither Moscow nor Gazprom can afford.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Poland has fought long and hard against Nord Stream II. And though its competition regulations have driven Gazprom's Western partners out of the deal, it appears that progress on the pipeline will continue, for now. For Gazprom, the project's difficulties are just another in a series of challenges that it has faced in the last decade as it tries to shed its reputation as Moscow's political pawn in Europe.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; line-height: 19.6001px; outline: none;">Editor's Note:</strong><span style="line-height: 19.6001px;"> </span><em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; line-height: 19.6001px; outline: none;">Stratfor closely monitors the ebbs and flows of world energy. Aside from production, the transportation of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products is of paramount concern for oil-producing nations. For energy consumers, transit routes are indispensable lifelines. A huge amount of the world's energy is transited through pipelines, across the Eurasian landmass in particular. In this periodic series we will examine some of the most geopolitically significant pipelines running through Europe and Asia.</em></span></div>
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<em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; line-height: 19.6001px; outline: none;">sourche: https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/gazprom-soldiers-nord-stream-ii?utm_source=LinkedIn&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=article</em></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-60161244328690759852016-08-13T22:22:00.000+03:002016-08-13T22:22:33.815+03:00Russia Launches Naval Exercises in Black Sea Amid Escalating Standoff with Ukraine<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<img alt="Russia Launches Naval Exercises in Black Sea Amid Escalating Standoff with Ukraine " height="191" src="https://foreignpolicymag.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/gettyimages-452778532.jpg" width="400" /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">One day after Russia accused Ukraine of </span><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/10/the-olympics-are-back-and-tensions-between-russia-and-ukraine-are-heating-up-crimea-putin-poroshenko/" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">attempted </a><span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">incursions across the de facto border into Crimea, the territory annexed by Moscow in 2014, Kiev put its military on high alert and the Kremlin announced the start of war games in the Black Sea, raising fnars </span><span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">of a return to open war in the country for the first time in more than a year.</span></span></div>
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<div style="-webkit-margin-after: 1em; -webkit-margin-before: 1em; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 2.05rem; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 615.047px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian President Vladimir Putin met with members of his Security Council on Thursday to discuss mounting tensions with Kiev in Crimea. </span><a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52685" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">According</a><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to the Kremlin’s press service, the Russian leader pledged to take countermeasures “along the land border, offshore, and in Crimean airspace” against Ukraine, which he accused on Wednesday of sending intelligence agents into Crimea to carry out terrorist acts and provoke a conflict with Moscow. The Russian Defense Ministry also announced that it will hold </span><a href="http://tass.ru/en/defense/893704" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">naval exercises</a><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> in the Black Sea — off the coast of Crimea — to practice countering underwater attacks by “saboteurs.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Russian drills — which will last from August 11 to 13 — are part of the already planned Caucasus-2016 naval exercises by the Russian Defense Ministry in the region, but their timing has left Ukrainian officials worried that the heightened military activity could escalate quickly into a direct conflict with Moscow.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-margin-after: 1em; -webkit-margin-before: 1em; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 2.05rem; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 615.047px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ordered his country’s army to be on combat alert near Crimea and along the front line in eastern Ukraine, which has seen an uptick in fighting in recent weeks. Oleh Slobodyan, a spokesman for the Ukrainian border guards, </span><a href="http://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/2065397-number-of-armed-russian-soldiers-increases-significantly-at-crimean-checkpoints.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">told reporters</a><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> on Thursday that Russia has massed troops near Crimea’s northern border with mainland Ukraine.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“These troops are coming with more modern equipment and there are air assault units,” Slobodyan said during a briefing in Kiev.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The chain of events that have resulted in the current standoff remain murky. On Wednesday, the FSB announced that two different incidents had taken place: a raid on a terror cell in Crimea over the weekend that left one FSB officer and an accused Ukrainian intelligence officer dead, and an exchange of gunfire across the Crimean border that left one Russian soldier dead. Kiev, however, has denied any involvement in a terrorist plot or in a firefight with the Russian military, calling the FSB’s claims “false information” and accusing the Kremlin of using the scenario as a pretext for war.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt also disputed Moscow’s version of events, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/GeoffPyatt/status/763648049004552193" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">saying</a><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> on Twitter that “Russia has a record of frequently levying false accusations at Ukraine to deflect attention from its own illegal actions.”</span></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-margin-after: 1em; -webkit-margin-before: 1em; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 2.05rem; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 615.047px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Adding to the confusion on the ground, Valery Kondratyuk, the head of intelligence at Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, </span><a href="https://meduza.io/en/news/2016/08/11/ukrainian-intelligence-says-there-was-an-armed-skirmish-in-crimea-between-russian-soldiers-and-russian-federal-agents" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">said</a><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> during a meeting with Poroshenko on Thursday that a skirmish had taken place over the weekend in Crimea between the Russian military and border guards in Russia’s Federal Security Service, the FSB — not with Ukrainian forces as alleged by the Russian agency.</span></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-margin-after: 1em; -webkit-margin-before: 1em; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 2.05rem; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 615.047px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kiev took further measures on Thursday, with Vadim Troyan, the acting head of Ukraine’s National Police Force, announcing that a kidnapping investigation has been launched into the disappearance of Evgeny Panov, the alleged Ukrainian intelligence officer the FSB has in custody. The security service says that Panov tried to infiltrate Crimea in order to carry out a series of terrorist attacks. According to reports in Ukrainian media, Panov is a former volunteer in the Ukrainian armed forces who fought in the war in eastern Ukraine against pro-Russian separatists. His family says that he went missing over the weekend and his brother </span><a href="https://meduza.io/en/news/2016/08/11/ukrainian-police-say-russia-s-captured-terrorist-is-an-abduction-as-president-poroshenko-orders-troops-on-high-alert" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">reportedly</a><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> believes he was kidnapped.</span></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-margin-after: 1em; -webkit-margin-before: 1em; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 2.05rem; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 615.047px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Amid the growing accusations, insults, and aggressive rhetoric from Moscow and Kiev, Poroshenko </span><a href="http://www.president.gov.ua/ru/news/prezident-doruchiv-privesti-v-posilenu-bojovu-gotovnist-vijs-37851" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">instructed</a><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to arrange a phone conversation with Putin to discuss the mounting tensions. However, it remains to be seen how receptive the Russian leader will be to talking with his Ukrainian counterpart. During </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7OpSeOtYnU" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">comments</a><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to the press on Wednesday, Putin accused Ukraine of resorting to terrorism and that continuing in internationally backed talks on the war in eastern Ukraine — slated to pick up in a few weeks during the G20 summit in China — were “pointless.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Both the European Union and the United States have tied the decision to remove economic sanctions on Russia to the success of the Minsk deal — the peace process brokered in the capital of Belarus in February 2015. However, both Moscow and Kiev have become frustrated with the stalled and often violated agreement. Russia has accused the Ukrainian government of refusing to live up to the terms of the truce, exchanging fire in eastern Ukraine, and denying elections in the separatist held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. Kiev has rebuffed the charges and insisted that Russia has no interest in observing the peace deal or preserving the status quo.</span></span></div>
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<span class="image-credit" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Photo credit: YURI LASHOV/AFP/Getty Images</span></span></div>
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<span class="image-credit" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #262526; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 24px; text-transform: uppercase;">BY </span><span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #262526; font-stretch: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="author" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="author" href="http://foreignpolicy.com/author/reid-standish" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Reid Standish">REID STANDISH</a></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span class="image-credit" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-family: "solido" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #262526; font-family: "solido" , "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.86px; font-stretch: inherit; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;">sourche: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/11/russia-launches-naval-exercises-in-black-sea-amid-escalating-standoff-with-ukraine-putin-crimea/</span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-28542195967998347082016-08-11T22:19:00.000+03:002016-08-11T22:19:20.871+03:00The Limits of a Southern European Alliance<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<img alt="Αποτέλεσμα εικόνας για The Limits of a Southern European Alliance" height="320" src="data:image/jpeg;base64,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" width="400" /></h2>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Forecast</span></h2>
<ul style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #4a4a4a; line-height: 19.6001px; list-style: square; margin: 1rem 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px 0px 0px 3.33333rem;">
<li style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"><em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the wake of the Brexit referendum, EU member states are searching for regional solutions to Continental problems, an approach that will make it more difficult for the bloc to reach a consensus.</span></em></li>
<li style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"><em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although Southern European countries share similar views on Continental integration, domestic interests and constraints will keep them from forming a coherent group.</span></em></li>
<li style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"><em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because of its status as both a Mediterranean and Northern European country, France will be trapped in the middle of conflicts between Europe's north and south, putting increasing strain on Paris' alliance with Berlin.<a name='more'></a></span></em></li>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Analysis</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Only seven weeks <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/making-sense-brexit" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">after British voters elected to leave the European Union</a>, the bloc has begun to<a href="https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/europe-without-union" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">fracture along regional lines</a>. According to Greek media reports, the government in Athens is attempting to organize a summit of Southern European countries in early September, just days before a scheduled EU-wide conference in Bratislava. So far, Greece has sent invitations to the leaders of France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Malta.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Greek initiative is only one indicator of a trend emerging across the European Union. The Brexit decision has <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/what-expect-after-brexit" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">raised questions about the bloc's future</a>, and its members are turning to their neighbors, not to Brussels, for answers. Countries in Central Europe — Visegrad Group members Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic — held their own meeting in July to assess the referendum's impact and craft proposals for EU reform. Their solutions, which they will present at the Bratislava summit, will likely center on a request to repatriate some powers from Brussels to national governments. Thus, the Greek meeting will be the second attempt by a European region to solidify a common position before the entire bloc meets in September — a troubling sign for the Continent's ability to reach consensus on the issues threatening its existence.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">For Southern Europe, Unity Is Not Enough</span></strong></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Broadly speaking, Greece and its southern counterparts <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/gap-widens-between-europes-north-and-south" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">share similar views</a> of what the European Union's path should look like. All are supportive of Continental integration, if taken to mean that the bloc <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/british-agriculture-hangs-balance-brexit" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">finances agriculture</a> and development subsidies, <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/european-banks-struggles-will-continue" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">shares banking and public debt risk</a>, and supports the European Central Bank's expansionary monetary policy to increase the Continent's competitiveness. Most southern states, having been at the center of Europe's financial crisis and having introduced unpopular austerity measures, also want Brussels to give individual governments more leeway to spend and borrow as they see fit.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Southern European countries have an interest in the events that take place in the Mediterranean as well. Instability in North Africa and the Middle East is a concern for these states, many of which have been <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/why-germany-cannot-stop-flow-migrants" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">deeply affected by the Continent's migration crisis</a>. Greece, Italy and Malta, for example, are primary entry points for the asylum seekers and economic migrants seeking a better life in the European Union. Unsurprisingly, Southern European countries are also some of the most vocal advocates for a proposal to distribute refugees across the Continent.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For the states lining the Mediterranean, the Brexit has created an opportunity to push their agendas by <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/how-brexit-would-undermine-europes-balance-power" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">taking control of the bloc's political process</a>. When the United Kingdom leaves, the European Union will lose a market-friendly and reformist member that historically has supported tightening the bloc's budget and preserving its internal market over creating a federal Europe. Germany will no longer have one of its most important allies in keeping EU spending in check or reining in Southern Europe's protectionist tendencies. Likewise, non-eurozone states of Central and Eastern Europe, which have long resisted ceding more sovereignty to Brussels, will no longer have one of their staunchest defenders.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The problem for Southern Europe, though, is that sharing similar positions on EU issues will not be enough to challenge the status quo. Many of the region's states are coping with issues at home that have weakened their positions in the bloc. Popular support for France's Socialist government has hit an all-time low, boding ill for the administration's chances of securing a victory in the country's approaching presidential election. To the east, the Italian government has linked its political future to a <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/referendum-italian-governments-future" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">constitutional referendum in November</a> that it has a moderate chance of losing. Meanwhile, Spain's political parties are still struggling to form a government after two elections yielded inconclusive results, and a third vote cannot be ruled out. The Greek and Portuguese administrations are not faring much better, and their economies are too small to guarantee Athens or Lisbon much clout in Brussels. Cyprus' and Malta's contributions to EU decision-making are even more negligible.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To make matters worse, Southern European states are sure to encounter stiff opposition from their EU peers to any proposals for substantial reform. Northern Europe, for one, would undoubtedly resist any measures that would transfer wealth to the Continent's south, and Central and Eastern Europe are unlikely to be amenable to granting Brussels more power.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And so, during the Bratislava summit, EU members <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/european-union-not-security-union" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">may discuss counterterrorism measures</a> and perhaps even debate Continental programs to fight unemployment, but any meaningful change to how the bloc works and what its priorities are will be extremely unlikely. Instead, the best Southern Europe can hope for within the next year or so are small tactical victories whose impact is limited at best. The European Commission's recent <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/brief-reprieve-spain" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">decision not to sanction Spain and Portugal</a> for failing to meet their deficit targets, for example, is the type of outcome that Southern European states can expect to achieve through collaboration. (In the face of French and Italian opposition, Germany decided that punishing EU member states only a month after the Brexit vote would do little to quell dissent within the bloc.) Such outcomes are temporary, however, and do not prevent the same issues from re-emerging later.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">France's Dilemma</span></strong></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In fact, far-reaching reform can take place in the European Union only after France and Germany have held elections in 2017. But even then, Southern Europe will have a hard time imposing its point of view on the bloc. <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100910_geopolitics_france_maintaining_influence_changing_europe" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">France's biggest geopolitical imperative</a> is to keep Germany in check. After World War II, this meant maintaining close political and economic ties with Berlin through the formation of the European Economic Community, the European Union's predecessor. In the wake of Germany's reunification in 1990, the introduction of a common currency served as a way to bind France and Germany even more tightly together, forcing them to coordinate policies and find compromises with each other.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="" src="https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/stratfor_large__s_/public/main/images/southern-europe-alliance-gdp-growth-080916.png?itok=P3a1WwPa" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; height: auto; max-width: 100%; outline: none; width: 640px;" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is not to say that Paris is satisfied with <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/french-conundrum" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">the present state of Europe</a>. The introduction of the euro has robbed France of its ability to use monetary policy to address crises, while the country's sluggish economic growth, insufficient structural reforms and political limitations have affirmed Germany's role as the bloc's most powerful actor. But Paris is not yet willing to side with the camp of politicians and economists who have floated the possibility of splitting the eurozone in two — a northern half led by Germany and a southern half led by France — since Europe's financial crisis began nearly a decade ago.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From a purely financial standpoint, such a move could make sense for France. Breaking the currency area into two smaller blocks would give Paris the chance to devalue its currency, regaining its competitive edge and reverting its trade deficit in the process. But from a geopolitical perspective, dividing the eurozone would be more dangerous for France than dissolving it altogether. Though the Franco-German alliance would not necessarily fall apart, it would certainly weaken as Germany shifted its attention to its partners in the north. Berlin would have a less pressing need to cooperate with Paris, and over time, mutual distrust and fear would rebuild between the two. At the same time, France would become responsible for leading the Mediterranean's politically unstable and financially fragile states, which will probably require additional economic assistance down the road.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The main contenders for France's upcoming presidential election reflect this dilemma. On one hand, the center-right Republican Party is divided on the European Union. Some factions advocate moving forward with Continental integration so long as it is on France's terms, while others have called for reducing the bloc's mandate to a core group of competencies and returning other powers to its member states. Both groups, however, agree on France's need to preserve its partnership with Germany, even if it means losing some EU members in the process.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the other hand, the National Front, France's second-most popular party, has taken a different approach to EU issues. It has proposed holding referendums on France's EU and eurozone membership, arguing that the country must recover the power to control its currency and protect its industry with trade barriers. Even the National Front, though, has not gone so far as to suggest replacing the Franco-German alliance with a union of Mediterranean nations. The party has joined like-minded movements such as Italy's Northern League in opposing immigration, criticizing EU policy on Greece and bashing bureaucrats in Brussels. But in its view, cooperation in Europe should happen among sovereign states, not among the members of a federation — even one of Mediterranean countries with similar goals.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; outline: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Europe's Leaders Pull Further Apart</span></strong></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the years ahead, France will continue to rely on its rapport with its Southern European neighbors to shape EU policymaking — and twist Germany's arm — as best it can. But this strategy has its risks. There are forces in Germany that want Berlin to become more isolationist, working only with <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/considering-northern-european-alliance" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">an exclusive group of "trustworthy" partners in the north</a>. These forces will make it more difficult for Paris to influence the bloc's direction by leaning on the south without alienating Germany in the process.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, as Euroskepticism becomes more prominent in French and German politics, topics such as the reintroduction of border controls or the repatriation of powers from Brussels will be raised more frequently in talks between France and Germany. Even so, neither country is ready to end their alliance, in spite of the emerging points of contention that threaten to drive them apart. But preventing a rupture in the relationship will become more difficult as Euroskeptic forces gain surer footing with each election. While Europe's biggest players work to keep their strained partnership together, tension between their Northern and Southern European associates will steadily increase. And France, both a Northern European and Mediterranean state, will be trapped in the middle.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lead Analyst: <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/content/adriano-bosoni" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #0e357b; outline: none; text-decoration: none;">Adriano Bosoni</a></span></div>
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sourche:https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/limits-southern-european-alliance?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=article </div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-12184887694963478682016-08-11T21:45:00.000+03:002016-08-11T21:45:07.753+03:00India’s ‘Rexit’: central bank uncertainty raises risk<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<strong style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="Αποτέλεσμα εικόνας για Outgoing Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Rajan" height="266" 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" width="400" /></strong></h2>
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<strong style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Key messages</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">• India is a significant player in the global financial system, given its large and liquid markets. It is a concern at the present moment of global uncertainty because its macroeconomic policy leadership is in transition.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">• Outgoing Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Rajan had started to address key challenges, such as inflation and non-performing loans in the Indian banking system. But there is more to do.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">• The Government of India should not delay in appointing a new RBI governor. It should also reaffirm its central bank’s independence.</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Shock absorber or shock amplifier?</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan resigned on 18 June 2016, India’s ‘Rexit’, he emphasised that his key objectives of establishing firm foundations for domestic financial and macroeconomic stability had not yet been fully achieved. But as he leaves, the global macroeconomic situation is fragile, in the context of Brexit, a slowing China, weaker commodity and oil prices and, now, Italy’s banking vulnerability.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As policy-makers try to maintain monetary and financial stability, the leadership transition at RBI could help – or make things worse.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">India is a significant player in global markets, given its large and <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20493" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">liquid financial market.<span class="icon-weblink_icon" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px 5px; padding: 0px; speak: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></a> India is also the fastest-growing G20 economy right now, with 7.6% GDP growth, and a critical regional player vis-à-vis neighbouring low-income countries in South Asia. But Indian growth is mainly domestically driven, and it runs ‘twin’ structural fiscal and current account deficits. This leads to inflation risk (though low oil prices are currently offsetting this, given that India is an oil-importing economy). And, to use its government’s own phrase, India also faces ‘twin balance sheet challenges’ for public and private sector banks with high non-performing loans (NPLs).</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">High NPLs discourage inflows</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Governor Rajan had started to address key challenges, such as inflation (5.8% in June) and NPLs in its banking system. But, by his own account, there is more to do. India’s NPLs have risen since 2013, and are reported to be <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-14/day-of-reckoning-coming-for-india-s-pigs-with-lipstick-lenders" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">as high as 18%<span class="icon-weblink_icon" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px 5px; padding: 0px; speak: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></a>. With public sector banks holding <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">76% of total assets<span class="icon-weblink_icon" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px 5px; padding: 0px; speak: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></a>, this group is most in need of reform. Although the <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Rajans-exit-will-not-hurt-bank-reforms-World-Bank/articleshow/52842851.cms" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">World Bank<span class="icon-weblink_icon" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px 5px; padding: 0px; speak: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></a> is optimistic on reform prospects, the vulnerability of Indian non-financial corporations (relating to liquidity, profitability and leverage) is at its highest level <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42548.0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">since the early 2000s.<span class="icon-weblink_icon" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px 5px; padding: 0px; speak: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></a> The private sector credit and investment environment is difficult. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Inflation pressures are a key macroeconomic risk. And yet the central bank might be avoiding systematic currency intervention, as the rupee has depreciated and supported exports. If that’s their intention, their timing is good. India is a significant commodity and oil importer, and the low commodity price environment means slower price rises which offset ‘pass-through’ inflationary pressure from currency depreciation. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With the RBI’s financial reforms unfinished, India is particularly vulnerable to global financial instability that could disrupt capital inflows. This could slow domestic growth and possibly worsen domestic financial risks. And that might, in turn, have not only regional growth implications but also wider global financial consequences. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have been very strong for some time, yet this could change on account of domestic financial vulnerability.</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Appoint a new governor soon</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Given India’s macroeconomic uncertainties, the circumstances surrounding Governor Rajan’s departure are worrying. Six weeks on and there has been no successor named. And, just as importantly, his departure apparently resulted from <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/e679f86a-36f0-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html#axzz4FHAfgPQt" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">political pressure<span class="icon-weblink_icon" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px 5px; padding: 0px; speak: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></a> (to reduce interest rates, which would contribute to increased NPL risk concerns). The delay over appointing a successor suggests that political wrangling may be continuing,which is a risk in its own right. In the wake of Rajan’s resignation, the government tried to reassert policy soundness by increasing FDI openness. But these steps were unconvincing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is a lot at stake for India and for its trading partners. India’s $500 billion in currency reserves will help it stabilise its currency; the RBI acted in the wake of the Brexit vote. Its bilateral swap facilities, including for its oil importers, are also important as a buffer against shocks. Its energy import demand growth (forecast by sector experts to <a href="http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2035/country-and-regional-insights/india-insights.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">grow by 161% to 2035<span class="icon-weblink_icon" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px 5px; padding: 0px; speak: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></a>) will bolster export growth for its resource-exporting trading partners. Notwithstanding all of this, India needs, crucially, to restore macroeconomic and financial institutional stability if it is to sustain its growth path and its trade and investment relationships. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Government of India should not delay in appointing a new RBI governor, who should continue the work on its inflation framework and on cleaning up public sector bank balance sheets. Progress on both would also reaffirm central bank independence.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By <a href="https://www.odi.org/staff/phyllis-papadavid" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 21px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Phyllis Papadavid</a><span style="line-height: 21px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.odi.org/experts/1616-stephen-gelb" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 21px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Stephen Gelb</a></span></div>
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sourche: https://www.odi.org/publications/10509-india-s-rexit-central-bank-uncertainty-raises-risk</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-73419079346000255792016-08-11T21:41:00.000+03:002016-08-11T21:41:03.373+03:00Iraq’s Deal With Oil Majors Could Crush OPEC’s Output Freeze Plans<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Iraq and oil majors BP (<a href="https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BP&ei=k1usV_CYMdbesgG9ooyIAg" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NYSE:BP</a>), Shell (<a href="https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:RDS.A&ei=ZlysV5nuLJbBsAHEr5-wDg" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">NYSE:RDS.A</a>) and Lukoil have agreed to resume investments in oil fields the foreign groups are developing, which is expected to raise the country’s crude output by 250,000-350,000 barrels per day in 2017, Reuters <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iraq-energy-oil-idUKKCN10M0R8?rpc=401" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">reported</a> on Thursday, quoting Iraqi officials—a move that has the potential to aggravate the supply glut and muddy the waters of the additional OPEC meeting in September, which some were glass-half-fulling might end with a production cap of some sort.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The recently reached accords actually push projects that the companies had originally planned for the first half of 2016 to the second half. The projects had been previously put on hold due to the low crude prices.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BP, Shell and Lukoil have agreed to spend in the second half this year around half the budgets they had planned for 2015, Reuters said, citing documents it has seen. BP will be spending US$1.8 billion at the Rumaila field, Shell will spend US$742 million, and Lukoil - US$1.08 billion.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“Many vital projects that foreign firms were forced to halt due to lower oil prices will be brought online after the recent budget cuts agreements,” Basim Abdul Kareem, the deputy chairman of South Oil Co, told Reuters.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Iraq approves every year the investments of foreign companies to develop its oilfields, and repays the companies with the proceeds from exporting crude from existing fields. Since the oil prices crashed, however, the country has seen its coffers depleting, and it is struggling to pay, especially after big spends on fighting ISIS in the north.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In early 2016, oil majors started <a href="http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Security-Woes-Threaten-OPECs-Second-Largest-Producer.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">scrapping</a> investments for this year at some of Iraq’s fields in the south. Most of Iraq’s largest oilfields are located in the south.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Iraq—OPEC's second biggest producer after Saudi Arabia—is trying to keep its total output at some 4.8 million bpd until the end of the year, Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister Fayyad Al-Nima <a href="http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Exxon-Petrochina-Table-Plan-To-Ramp-Iraqi-Oil-Output-By-500000-Bpd.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">said</a> last month.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With Iraq expected to pump more crude and Iran seeking to <a href="http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Irans-Crude-Output-Hits-5-Year-High-in-June.html" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0000ee; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">regain</a> market share that it lost due to sanctions, it will be increasingly difficult to have consensus within OPEC on how to act or whether production should be capped. <br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />By Tsvetana Paraskova </span></div>
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sourche: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iraqs-Deal-With-Oil-Majors-Could-Crush-OPECs-Output-Freeze-Plans.html</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-82398779994230579212016-08-11T21:17:00.000+03:002016-08-11T21:17:01.585+03:00Οι κανόνες του προσφυγικού: Η προσφυγική κρίση βάζει σε δοκιμασία την ενωμένη Ευρώπη<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">«Κανένας δεν αφήνει την πατρίδα του εκτός αν πατρίδα είναι το στόμα ενός καρχαρία» (Ουαρσάν Σάιρ)</span></div>
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<span class="field-content">Μια σκηνή στημένη στο παλιό αεροδρόμιο του Ελληνικού όπου πρόσφυγες και μετανάστες διαμένουν προσωρινά. 13 Ιουλίου 2016. . REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Το 2015 περισσότεροι από 1.000.000 πρόσφυγες εισήλθαν στην Ευρώπη πυροδοτώντας, σύμφωνα με τον ΟΗΕ, τη «χειρότερη προσφυγική κρίση μετά τον Δεύτερο Παγκόσμιο Πόλεμο» [1] και θέτοντας, τελικά, υπό αμφισβήτηση την ενότητα της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης.<br />Σύμφωνα με τον Διεθνή Οργανισμό Μετανάστευσης, από το 2015 μέχρι σήμερα ο αριθμός των θαλάσσιων και χερσαίων αφίξεων προσφύγων στην Ευρώπη υπερβαίνει το 1,18 εκατομμύριο [2]. Κύρια πύλη εισόδου αποτελεί η Ελλάδα, αφού ο αριθμός των προσφύγων που καταφτάνει σε αυτή από την Τουρκία είναι εξαιρετικά υψηλός, ενώ δεύτερη ακολουθεί η Ιταλία, η οποία σημειώνει πολύ μικρότερο αριθμό αφίξεων. Από τους πρόσφυγες αυτούς οι περισσότεροι ζητούν άσυλο κυρίως στην Γερμανία, στην Αυστρία, στην Σουηδία και στην Ολλανδία [3].</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Κυριότερη αιτία του προσφυγικού ζητήματος συνιστά ο εμφύλιος πόλεμος της Συρίας, ο οποίος ξεκίνησε το 2011 στον απόηχο της «Αραβικής Άνοιξης» -με σκοπό την αποκαθήλωση του δικτάτορα Άσαντ- και σύντομα πήρε την μορφή θρησκευτικής διαμάχης στην οποία έχουν εμπλακεί πολλές περιφερειακές δυνάμεις [4] αλλά και διάφορα ισχυρά κράτη. Σήμερα, σύμφωνα με εκτιμήσεις, έχουν προκληθεί πάνω από 270.000 θάνατοι [5], ενώ το τέλος του πολέμου δε φαίνεται να είναι κοντά. Επιπρόσθετα αίτια του προσφυγικού κύματος αποτελούν οι γενικευμένες -ή λιγότερο γενικευμένες- ένοπλες συγκρούσεις σε συνδυασμό με τις βιαιότητες εξτρεμιστικών ομάδων στο Αφγανιστάν, στη Νιγηρία, στην Σομαλία, στο Πακιστάν και στο Ιράκ, η εμπόλεμη κατάσταση στο Ν. Σουδάν και το καταπιεστικό δικτατορικό καθεστώς στην Ερυθραία [6].</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Σε κάθε μία από τις περιοχές αυτές καταγράφονται συνεχείς παραβιάσεις θεμελιωδών δικαιωμάτων του ανθρώπου, όπως αυτά κατοχυρώνονται τόσο στην ΟΔΔΑ [7] όσο και στα ευρωπαϊκά κείμενα (ΕΣΔΑ [8] και ΧΘΔΕΕ [9]). Το δικαίωμα στην ζωή [10], στην ανθρώπινη αξιοπρέπεια [11], στην ελευθερία έκφρασης [12] και στην μη υποβολή σε βασανιστήρια [13] αποτελούν μερικά παραδείγματα τέτοιων παραβιάσεων.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ποιοι είναι, όμως, οι πρόσφυγες και ποια η προστασία που τους παρέχεται;</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Με βάση την Σύμβαση της Γενεύης [14] ως πρόσφυγας ορίζεται «κάθε άτομο, που εγκαταλείπει την χώρα καταγωγής του/ης ή τον τόπο της τελευταίας ή συνήθους διαμονής του/ης εξαιτίας δικαιολογημένου φόβου δίωξης λόγω της φυλής, της θρησκείας, της εθνικότητας, της συμμετοχής του/ης σε ιδιαίτερη κοινωνική ομάδα ή των πολιτικών του/ης πεποιθήσεων (πραγματικών ή αποδιδόμενων) και για τον λόγο αυτό, δεν μπορεί ή δεν επιθυμεί να επιστρέψει στη χώρα του/ης». Στο πλαίσιο της Ε.Ε. [15] κάθε πρόσφυγας δύναται να αιτηθεί διεθνούς προστασίας [16], ώστε να του αναγνωριστεί το καθεστώς του πρόσφυγα (μέσω της χορήγησης ασύλου) [17] ή της επικουρικής προστασίας [18] και να λάβει άδεια διαμονής η χρονική διάρκεια της οποίας είναι 3 χρόνια με δυνατότητα ανανέωσης.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ωστόσο, αν και στον κανονισμό Δουβλίνο III [19] προβλέπεται ότι οι αιτήσεις διεθνούς προστασίας εξετάζονται από την πρώτη χώρα εισόδου των προσφύγων στην Ε.Ε., σήμερα, η ρύθμιση αυτή έχει ανασταλεί λόγω των συνθηκών υποδοχής και κράτησης των αιτούντων άσυλο στην Ελλάδα και της –μέχρι το 2011- έλλειψης ενός δίκαιου συστήματος ασύλου [20] σε αυτήν. Αυτό διαφαίνεται και μέσα από τις καταδίκες της Ελλάδας από το ΕΔΔΑ [21] για επανειλημμένη καταπάτηση της ανθρώπινης αξιοπρέπειας [22] και της ελεύθερης ανάπτυξης της προσωπικότητας [23], όπως επίσης και των άρθρων 3 & 5 της ΕΣΔΑ.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Αξίζει, βεβαίως, να σημειωθεί ότι το 2011 ιδρύθηκε στην Ελλάδα η νέα υπηρεσία ασύλου [24], η οποία διακρίνεται από αυξημένη ποιότητα σε σχέση με το προηγούμενο καθεστώς αστυνομικής υπηρεσίας, καθώς διασφαλίζει τα εχέγγυα προστασίας των δικαιωμάτων των αιτούντων άσυλο. Εντούτοις, παρά τα θετικά της στοιχεία, η υπάρχουσα ρύθμιση δεν κρίνεται επαρκής για την αποτελεσματική διαχείριση του αυξημένου αριθμού προσφύγων που βρίσκεται στην Ελλάδα αυτήν τη στιγμή. Το γεγονός αυτό καθίσταται εντονότερο δεδομένου ότι βάσει του κανονισμού Δουβλίνο III δεν προβλέπεται η κατανομή ευθυνών μεταξύ των κρατών της Ε.Ε. ως προς την διαχείριση των αιτημάτων ασύλου, με αποτέλεσμα να συσσωρεύεται μεγάλος αριθμός προσφύγων στην ελληνική επικράτεια.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Για τον παραπάνω λόγο προκύπτει η ανάγκη για την Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, ως κοινότητα δημοκρατικών αξιών, να αντιμετωπίσει αυτό το έλλειμμα. Για το σκοπό αυτό έχει υιοθετήσει δύο κύριες πολιτικές, το relocation [25] και το resettlement [26]. Η πρώτη εξ αυτών προβλέπει την επανεγκατάσταση προσφύγων από την Ελλάδα και την Ιταλία σε κάποια άλλη ευρωπαϊκή χώρα -χωρίς να υπάρχει η δυνατότητα επιλογής συγκεκριμένου κράτους από τους αιτούντες άσυλο- ενώ η δεύτερη την απευθείας μετεγκατάστασή τους από μια τρίτη σε κάποια ευρωπαϊκή. Ταυτόχρονα στο πλαίσιο της Ε.Ε. υπάρχει μέριμνα για την κοινωνική ένταξη των προσφύγων μέσω της εφαρμογής αναπτυξιακών προγραμμάτων, όπως το GAMΜ (Global Approach on Migration and Mobility) [27] και το Europe 2020 [28].</span></div>
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<a href="http://foreignaffairs.gr/article-images/11082016-1.jpg" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="11082016-1.jpg" height="456" src="http://foreignaffairs.gr/article-images/11082016-1.jpg" style="border: 0px;" title="11082016-1.jpg" width="626" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ο πρόεδρος της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής, Ζαν Κλοντ Γιουνκέρ (αριστερά), απευθύνεται στο ευρωκοινοβούλιο στο Στρασβούργο, στις 5 Ιουλίου 2016. Δεξιά, το επίτροπος της ΕΕ για την μετανάστευση, Δημήτρης Αβραμόπουλος. REUTERS/Vincent Kessler<br />-----------------------------------------</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Επιπλέον, στην πολιτική διαχείρισης της προσφυγικής κρίσης εκ μέρους της Ε.Ε. περιλαμβάνεται και η πρόσφατη Συμφωνία της με την Τουρκία [29], η οποία προβλέπει την ισότιμη ανταλλαγή προσφύγων μεταξύ Τουρκίας και ευρωπαϊκών χωρών, καθώς και την καταπολέμηση της δράσης των διακινητών στα τουρκικά παράλια. Ωστόσο, εκφράζονται επιφυλάξεις για το κατά πόσο η Τουρκία αποτελεί ασφαλή χώρα για την επιστροφή προσφύγων, όσο και για το αν η Ελλάδα πληροί τις διαδικαστικές εγγυήσεις που απαιτεί μια αναγκαστική επιστροφή σε τρίτη χώρα. Παράλληλα, παρατηρείται απουσία πρόβλεψης από τν συμφωνία για άλλους προσφυγικούς πληθυσμούς πέραν των Σύρων («Για κάθε Σύρο που θα γίνεται εκ νέου δεκτός στην Τουρκία από τα ελληνικά νησιά, ένας άλλος Σύρος θα επανεγκαθίσταται από την Τουρκία στα κράτη μέλη της ΕΕ») [30]. Σε ένα γενικότερο πλαίσιο, η ευρωπαϊκή πολιτική αναφορικά με το προσφυγικό εδράζεται, κυρίως, στην διάσωση των μεταναστευτικών πληθυσμών και στην ασφάλεια των θαλάσσιων συνόρων μέσω της αντιμετώπισης των διακινητών.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Στην εξέλιξη και διαχείριση του προσφυγικού ζητήματος ουσιώδους σημασίας κρίνεται και ο ρόλος των ισχυρών κρατών, ως πρωταγωνιστών στον καθορισμό των διεθνών συνιστωσών. Η τάση αυτή αντικατοπτρίζεται -inter alia- στη δήλωση [31] του Γεν. Γραμματέα του ΝΑΤΟ, Stoltenberg, περί ουδετερότητάς του ως διαιτητή-επιτηρητή αναφορικά με την ευρω-τουρκική Συμφωνία.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Βέβαια, πέρα από τους διακηρυγμένους στόχους της Συμφωνίας της 18.03.2016, υπάρχουν και πιόνια στη διεθνή σκηνή που δρουν βάσει εθνικών συμφερόντων. Το προϋπάρχον κουρδικό ζήτημα, καθώς και η στάση των χωρών του Κόλπου, ειδικότερα δε της Σαουδικής Αραβίας, επηρεάζουν σημαντικά, αφενός την αύξηση των προσφυγικών ροών προς τη Δύση [32] αφετέρου την τάση επικράτησης της τουρκικής εξωτερικής πολιτικής στην περιοχή του Αιγαίου. Αξίζει να σημειωθεί ότι η Σαουδική Αραβία έχει αποκλείσει κάθε πιθανότητα φιλοξενίας Σύρων προσφύγων [33].</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ο συσχετισμός δυνάμεων επηρεάστηκε καταλυτικά από την διακοπή των ρωσοτουρκικών σχέσεων το Νοέμβριο του 2015 [34], που οδήγησε σε αναθέρμανση του ψυχροπολεμικού κλίματος και ενίσχυση της συνεργασίας μεταξύ Πούτιν και Άσαντ. Μάλιστα, το καθεστώς του τελευταίου βρίσκεται σε αδιάκοπη ρήξη με το νεοπαγές φαινόμενο του Ισλαμικού Κράτους (ISIS).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Όσον αφορά στο αντίπαλο δέος, την Αμερική, ενώ μέχρι το 2014 εμφανιζόταν κυρίαρχη υπερδύναμη στο συριακό μέτωπο, σήμερα, εφαρμόζει «πολιτική απάθειας» έναντι στην ισλαμική φονταμενταλιστική απειλή. Βέβαια, η πολιτική αυτή πρόκειται να αλλάξει άρδην σε περίπτωση που οι διακηρύξεις μίσους του Ρεπουμπλικάνου υποψηφίου Τράμπ απέναντι στον μουσουλμανικό κόσμο επαληθευθούν -στις προσεχείς αμερικανικές εκλογές- θέτοντας το διακύβευμα μεταξύ ελευθερίας και ασφάλειας.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ΤΕΛΙΚΑ ΥΠΑΡΧΕΙ «ΕΝΩΜΕΝΗ» ΕΥΡΩΠΗ;</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Παρά τη δραματικά αυξανόμενη ένταση της προσφυγικής κρίσης τους τελευταίους μήνες, η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση επιδεικνύει ολοένα και μεγαλύτερη αδυναμία στον σχεδιασμό και την υλοποίηση μιας ενιαίας-συλλογικής πολιτικής [35] για την αντιμετώπισή της. Με την σειρά της, η αδυναμία αυτή θέτει σε κίνδυνο την ενότητα του ευρωπαϊκού οικοδομήματος. Η επιδίωξη για μια ευρωπαϊκή λύση στο προσφυγικό ζήτημα έχει δώσει την θέση της σε μονομερείς ενέργειες των κρατών-μελών με φαινόμενα όπως το κλείσιμο των εθνικών συνόρων και η επιβολή αυστηρών συνοριακών ελέγχων [36]. Χαρακτηριστικό παράδειγμα αποτελεί η στάση των χωρών Βίζενγκραντ [37] (Τσεχική Δημοκρατία, Πολωνία, Σλοβακία, Ουγγαρία), οι οποίες αρνούμενες να δεχθούν πρόσφυγες, ακολουθούν την πολιτική των κλειστών συνόρων και επιδιώκουν την εφαρμογή ενός «ευρωπαϊκού σχεδίου Β» [38] για την προσφυγική κρίση. Το σχέδιο αυτό περιλαμβάνει οριστικό κλείσιμο των συνόρων σε ΠΓΔΜ [39] και Βουλγαρία, προκειμένου οι προσφυγικές ροές να μην μπορούν να αξιοποιήσουν την «βαλκανική οδό [40]» στην πορεία τους προς την Κεντρική και Βόρεια Ευρώπη. Παράλληλα, Γερμανία, Αυστρία, Γαλλία, Σουηδία και Δανία έχουν επαναφέρει τους ελέγχους στα σύνορά τους [41][42], ενώ Κροατία και Σλοβενία έχουν αποφασίσει το κλείσιμό τους.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Τα πρόσφατα τρομοκρατικά χτυπήματα σε Παρίσι [43] και Βρυξέλλες [44] έφεραν στο προσκήνιο το ζήτημα της εθνικής ασφάλειας και της προάσπισης των εθνικών συμφερόντων των κρατών-μελών υποβαθμίζοντας κάθε προσπάθεια αναζήτησης ευρωπαϊκής λύσης. Όπως και στο παρελθόν [45], μια περίοδος γενικευμένης κρίσης (οικονομικής-πολιτικής-προσφυγικής), κατά την οποία οι λαοί στρέφονται στον εθνικισμό δεν θα μπορούσε να μη σημαδευτεί από την έκφραση και διάδοση ακροδεξιάς και μισαλλόδοξης ρητορικής. Ρατσιστικά, ξενοφοβικά και ισλαμοφοβικά κόμματα, πολλά εκ των οποίων εκπροσωπούνται στα εθνικά τους κοινοβούλια, σημειώνουν ραγδαία άνοδο σε όλη την Ευρώπη, ασκώντας πίεση στις ευρωπαϊκές κυβερνήσεις και ωθώντας τις σε ολοένα πιο συντηρητικές θέσεις [46]. Αντίστοιχα, σοβαρά περιστατικά ισλαμοφοβίας και ξενοφοβίας σημειώνονται και σε επίπεδο κοινωνίας των πολιτών. Χαρακτηριστική περίπτωση αποτελεί ο εμπρησμός του κέντρου προσφύγων στην Δρέσδη από εξτρεμιστικές ομάδες της περιοχής [47].</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Στον αντίποδα των ρατσιστικών αυτών εκδηλώσεων, αξίζει να σημειωθεί ότι στην Ελλάδα μεγάλη μερίδα του πληθυσμού έχει κινητοποιηθεί –ιδιαίτερα τον τελευταίο χρόνο- προς την παροχή ανθρωπιστικής βοήθειας στους προσφυγικούς πληθυσμούς είτε μέσω αυτο-οργανωμένων ομάδων αλληλεγγύης είτε μέσω Μη Κυβερνητικών Οργανώσεων [48]. Άξιο αναφοράς είναι ότι πολλές από αυτές τις δράσεις, αν και δεν λαμβάνουν οικονομική βοήθεια, παρέχουν ανθρωπιστικό υλικό, ενημέρωση και υποστήριξη. Η προσφορά τους αυτή βραβεύθηκε από το Συμβούλιο της Ευρώπης [49]. Μάλιστα, λόγω κρατικής απουσίας [50], οι Μ.Κ.Ο. έχουν επωμισθεί ένα μεγάλο μέρος της ευθύνης κάλυψης των αναγκών των αιτούντων άσυλο, ενώ παράλληλα η Ύπατη Αρμοστεία του Ο.Η.Ε για τους πρόσφυγες [51] συμβάλλει με την οργάνωση δράσεων προστασίας. Χρήζει μνείας ότι -στον απόηχο της προαναφερθείσας συμφωνίας Ε.Ε-Τουρκίας- η Ύπατη Αρμοστεία και οι Μ.Κ.Ο. αποχώρησαν από συγκεκριμένες δράσεις των «hotspots», αντιτιθέμενες στην μετατροπή τους σε κέντρα κράτησης [52]. Η εν λόγω κίνηση δημιούργησε περαιτέρω έλλειμμα στην ήδη πιεστική κάλυψη βασικών αναγκών. Η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή, ωστόσο, αντιλαμβανόμενη την συμβολή των ΜΚΟ έχει εγκρίνει από το Μάρτιο του 2016 υψηλά ποσοστά χρηματοδότησης σε βάθος τριετίας για την εντατικοποίηση και το συντονισμό της δράσης τους [53].</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ΜΕΤΡΑ ΑΛΛΗΛΕΓΓΥΗΣ</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Καταλήγοντας, η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση στέκεται σήμερα στα όρια μιας πολύπλευρης κρίσης, πολιτικής και ανθρωπιστικής, αλλά και μιας κρίσης νομιμοποίησης, βρίσκοντας, πλέον, τον εαυτό της μακριά από τις δημοκρατικές της βάσεις και χωρισμένο από σύνορα και εθνοκεντρικές πολιτικές ανακοπής των προσφυγικών ροών.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Η αντιμετώπιση της κατάστασης αυτής απαιτεί την εμβάθυνση της ενοποίησης των κρατών-μελών της ένωσης, αλλά και την χάραξη μιας ισχυρής κοινής πολιτικής βασιζόμενης στην αρχή της αλληλεγγύης. Στο πλαίσιο αυτό απαιτείται η λήψη μιας σειράς βραχυχρόνιων και μακροχρόνιων μέτρων για την αποτελεσματική διαχείριση των προσφυγικών ροών, όπως η θέσπιση ενιαίου δικαίου ασύλου –μέσω της αναθεώρησης του Κανονισμού Δουβλίνο ΙΙΙ βάσει αρ.78/3 ΣΛΕΕ - στην κατεύθυνση του σεβασμού και της προστασίας των ανθρωπίνων δικαιωμάτων και η ενίσχυση του κοινωνικού χαρακτήρα των κρατών μέσω της προώθησης της κοινωνικής ένταξης των προσφύγων, με στόχο την αφομοίωση τους. Καταλυτική κρίνεται επίσης η εφαρμογή των ειλημμένων αποφάσεων για ανακατανομή τους (re-allocation) μεταξύ των κρατών-μελών της με δίκαιο και αναλογικό τρόπο, η ίδρυση ευρωπαϊκής ακτοφυλακής για την περιοχή της Μεσογείου για την διάσωση ζωών στην θάλασσα, αλλά και η ενίσχυση του κοινωνικού κράτους και της κοινωνίας των πολιτών.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Μπροστά, λοιπόν, σε μια από τις μεγαλύτερες δοκιμασίες με τις οποίες έχει έρθει αντιμέτωπη, η ΕΕ είναι απαραίτητο να σταθεί στο ύψος των περιστάσεων και να επωμιστεί τις ευθύνες που τη βαρύνουν, αφού η απάθεια αποτελεί μια πολυτέλεια που δε χωράει σε εποχές κρίσης.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">* Το κείμενο αυτό συντάχθηκε από προπτυχιακούς φοιτητές νομικών, οικονομικών, διεθνών & ευρωπαϊκών και πολιτικών επιστημών από όλη την Ελλάδα, στο πλαίσιο διεξαγωγής του 20ου Πανελλήνιου Κοινοβουλίου Νέων, που διοργανώνεται από την Student Association For International Affairs από το 1996. Η προσομοίωση έλαβε χώρα από τις 7-10 Απριλίου 2016 στις εγκαταστάσεις των DEREE-The American College of Greece και Φιλολογικού Συλλόγου «Παρνασσός», με την αιγίδα του Ευρωπαϊκού Κοινοβουλίου και την υποστήριξη της Αμερικανικής Πρεσβείας στην Αθήνα, του Γαλλικού Ινστιτούτου Ελλάδας, της Εθνικής Επιτροπής για τα Δικαιώματα του Ανθρώπου και της Ελληνικής Αντιπροσωπείας της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής. Οι φοιτητές που συμμετείχαν για την σύνταξη του κειμένου αυτού, εκτός της επικεφαλής που αναφέρεται ανωτέρω, είναι οι: Μαρία Καλοχριστιανάκη, Δήμητρης Φρούντζας, Βασιλική Παπαγιαννοπούλου, Αγγελική Μιχαλιτσιάνου, Μαίρη Βαρζακάκου, Βασιλική Χαλαζιά, Αλεξία-Νεφέλη Δούμα, Κυράτσα Πουλίδου, Ευάγγελος Σούλτης-Αβαγιάννης, Κωνσταντίνα-Δέσποινα Σωτηροπούλου, Μαρία Τριανταφύλλου, Μαρία Γιαννακοπούλου.</span></div>
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<a href="http://foreignaffairs.gr/author/athina-simatoy" style="line-height: 15.0013px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Αθηνά Σιμάτου</span></a></div>
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ΠΗΓΗ: http://foreignaffairs.gr/articles/70924/athina-simatoy/oi-kanones-toy-prosfygikoy?page=show</div>
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ΠΑΡΑΠΟΜΠΕΣ:</div>
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Belgium and Greece», Appl.no.30696/09, ECtHR, 21.01.2011<br />[22] Σύνταγμα, άρθρο 2 παρ.1<br />[23] Σύνταγμα, άρθρο 5 παρ.1<br />[24] Ν.3907/2011, όπως τροποποιήθηκε με το ν.4251/2014 και ενσωμάτωσε την Ευρωπαϊκή Οδηγία 2008/115/ΕΚ<br />[25] Συμβούλιο της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης. «Απόφαση (ΕΕ) 11131/15». 22/07/2015 [online]<a href="http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-11131-2015-INIT/el/pdf" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-11131-2015-INIT/el/pdf">http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-11131-2015-INIT/el/pdf</a> [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 09/04/2016]<br />[26] Συμβούλιο της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης. «Απόφαση (ΕΕ) 2015/1601». 22/09/2015 [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 09/04/2016]<br />[27] The Global Approach to Migration and Mobility, [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 08/04/2016]<br />[28] Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή. “H «Ευρώπη 2020» με λίγα λόγια”. [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 08/04/2016]<br />[29] Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή-Αντιπροσωπεία στην Ελλάδα (Υπηρεσία Τύπου και ΜΜΕ). “Συμφωνία ΕΕ-Τουρκίας: Ερωτήσεις-Απαντήσεις”. 21/03/2016 [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 08/04/2016]<br />[30] Aamann, Preben. “Δήλωση των αρχηγών κρατών και κυβερνήσεων της ΕΕ”. 08/03/2016 [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 09/04/2016]<br />[31] Dahlburg, Jhon-Thor. What we will do is to support, assist, help the Turkish and the Greek authorities and the EU Καθημερινή, 07/03/2016 [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[32] Hay, Andrew, Bellon, Tina. “'No Bashar al-Assad in the future', says Saudi foreign minister: report”. Reuters, 12/02/2016. [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[33] Bershidsky, Leonid, “Why don’t Gulf States accept more refugees?”. Bloombergview, 03/09/2015 [online] <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-04/why-don-t-gulf-states-accept-more-refugees-" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-04/why-don-t-gulf-states-accept-more-refugees-">www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-04/why-don-t-gulf-states-accept-m...</a>[τελευταία πρόσβαση 09/04/2016]<br />[34] Κατάρριψη ρωσικού πολεμικού αεροσκάφους κατόπιν εντολής των τουρκικών αρχών.<br />[35] Κουρούπης, Κ. “Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση ή ευρωπαϊκός διχασμός”. The Huffington Post, 01/04/2016 [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[36] European Comission. “Temporary Reintroduction of Border Control”. 08/04/2016 [online:] [τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[37] Thorpe, N. (2016). ”Visegrad: The castle where a Central European bloc was born”. BBC, 21/02/2016 [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[38] Τζίμας, Σ. “Σχέδιο για νέους φράχτες στα σύνορα”. Καθημερινή, 03/02/2016 [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[39] European Comission. “The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia”. [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[40] Έθνος. “«Η βαλκανική οδός έκλεισε για πάντα», βεβαιώνει η αυστριακή υπ. Εσωτερικών”. Έθνος On Line, 08/03/2016. [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[41] European Comission. “Temporary Reintroduction of Border Control”. [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[42] "Όταν υφίσταται σοβαρή απειλή για τη δημόσια…υπερβαίνει τις 30 ημέρες", (άρθρο 23 Συνθήκη Σένγκεν)[πηγή: Eur Lex. «Κώδικας συνόρων του Σένγκεν», τελευταία τροποποίηση: 14/03/2014, online, (τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016)]<br />[43] 13 Νοεμβρίου 2015 [πηγή: BBC. “Paris attacks: What happened on the night.”, 09/12/2016 , τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[44] 22 Μαρτίου 2016 [πηγή: Euro2day. «Τρομοκρατική επίθεση με νεκρούς στο αεροδρόμιο των Βρυξελλών». 22/03/2016 (oniline) τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[45] Stratfor. «Europe Rediscovers Nationalism». 11/01/2016 [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[46] Π.χ. Αυστρία [Κουναλάκη, Ξ. “Ευρωφοβικά, ακροδεξιά σύνδρομα στην Ευρώπη”. Καθημερινή 26/03/2016 [online]<a href="http://www.kathimerini.gr/854533/article/epikairothta/kosmos/eyrwfovika-akrode3ia-syndroma-sthn-eyrwph" style="color: #004276; text-decoration: none;" title="http://www.kathimerini.gr/854533/article/epikairothta/kosmos/eyrwfovika-akrode3ia-syndroma-sthn-eyrwph">http://www.kathimerini.gr/854533/article/epikairothta/kosmos/eyrwfovika-...</a>), τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016] και Γαλλία [Κύρτσος, Γ. «Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση: Τρεις χώρες, οι εξής δύο υπέρ των προσφύγων». The Huffington Post, 09/03/2016 [online] τελευταία πρόσβαση 7/4/2016]<br />[47] ΤΑ ΝΕΑ.GR. “Σοκ στην Γερμανία:Χειροκροτούσαν μπροστά από φλεγόμενο κέντρο προσφύγων”. TANEA 22/02/2016 [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 08/04/2016]<br />[48] Σωτήρχου, Ιωάννα, «Αλληλέγγυοι και εθελοντές: οι αφανείς ήρωες «ήρωες» του προσφυγικού». Εφημερίδα των Συντακτών. 25 Φεβρουαρίου 2013 [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 08/04/2016]<br />[49] Huffington post Greece-Newsroom. «Το Συμβούλιο της Ευρώπης βράβευσε τις ΜΚΟ «Αγκαλιά» και «Μετάδραση» για την προσφορά τους στο προσφυγικό.». Huffington Post, 17/01/2016. [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 08/04/2016]<br />[50] Κυβέρνηση ή ΜΚΟ, Το Βήμα, Γνώμες, 24/03/2016, [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 08/04/2016]<br />[51] Ύπατη Αρμοστεία του Ο.Η.Ε. για τους πρόσφυγες στην Ελλάδα. [ ]<br />[52] Guardian: Πλήγμα για τη συμφωνία ΕΕ-Τουρκίας η αποχώρηση της Ύπατης Αρμοστείας, ΤΑ ΝΕΑ, 24/03/2016. [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 08/04/2016]<br />[53] Χρηματοδότηση στην Ελλάδα αποφασίστηκε στο Κολέγιο των Επιτρόπων, 02/03/2016, [online] [τελευταία πρόσβαση: 08/04/2016]</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-61290105800854351872016-08-11T21:10:00.001+03:002016-08-11T21:10:36.391+03:00The Quiet Tajik Refugee Crisis: A crackdown in Tajikistan has led to a little noticed surge in Tajik asylum seekers in Europe — particularly Poland.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While the refugee crisis triggered by the Syrian conflict has gotten wall-to-wall news coverage in Europe, Poland has been barely a blip on the migration radar. Unlike other EU border states such as Greece, Hungary, and Italy, Poland has not seen a major spike in asylum seekers from places like Syria, Afghanistan, and Eritrea, due to a large extent to its geographical location away from the main migration routes.</span></div>
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<img alt="The Quiet Tajik Refugee Crisis" class="wp-post-image" height="239" itemprop="image" src="http://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/thediplomat_2016-08-11_13-28-15-386x239.jpg" style="border: 0px; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; width: 385px;" width="386" /></div>
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A Belarussian border guard opens the gate at a border crossing with Poland, near the village of Pererov, some 320 km (200 miles) southwest of Minsk (October 20, 2013).</div>
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Image Credit: REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yet the comparatively low numbers of Syrians and Afghans arriving in Poland mask a rather dramatic and largely obscured development: the increase in the number of asylum seekers from Tajikistan.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the first half of 2016, 660 Tajiks sought asylum in Poland, already surpassing the total of 527 Tajik asylum applicants in all of 2015. If the current arrival rate continues, the number of Tajik asylum seekers may well surpass the 1,000 mark by the end of the year. To put things in perspective, there were just 105 asylum seekers from Tajikistan in 2014 and they were virtually unheard of in years prior.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Within just a year and a half, Tajiks have overtaken Ukrainians as the second largest group of asylum seekers in Poland. The numbers would arguably be even higher given the fact that Polish border authorities prevented more than 3,000 Tajik nationals from entering the country in 2015. While Poland has been a traditional country of transit and destination for Chechen asylum seekers, who continue to comprise by far the largest refugee group in Poland, the surge in arrivals from Tajikistan is a new development.</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fleeing an Unprecedented Crackdown</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The timing for the arrival of Tajik asylum seekers at Poland’s borders coincides with Dushanbe’s crackdown on the political opposition, which kicked into full gear in September 2015. There had already been signs of mounting repression in the month prior marked by the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31760810" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">assassination of Umarali Kuvvatov</a>, a prominent Tajik opposition leader in exile, on March 5, 2015 in Istanbul and the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/08/17/moldova-activist-faces-extradition-tajikistan" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">attempted extradition of Sobir Valiev,</a> a member of the same Group 24 opposition group as Kuvvatov<a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/08/17/moldova-activist-faces-extradition-tajikistan" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">,</a> in early August 2015, from Moldova to Tajikistan based on trumped up charges of extremism.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By September 2015 Tajikistan’s leading opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party, had been shut down, followed by a flurry of arrests on September 16. The arrests targeted members of Tajikistan’s civil society — from human rights activists to journalists and members of the opposition. Described by Steven Swerdlow of Human Rights Watch as the “worst political and religious crackdown since the end of the country’s civil war,” the Tajik government’s repressive campaign has turned into a full-fledged <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/05/16/time-get-tough-tajikistans-human-rights-crisis" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">human rights crisis</a> with the prospect of imprisonment and torture hanging over alleged government critics and their families.</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tajik Refugees Headed to the Polish Border</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since Tajiks can travel to Belarus and Russia without a visa, Poland is the closest EU member state within reach for those seeking to find protection as asylum seekers. A large number of Tajiks have made their way to the <a href="http://www.asylumineurope.org/news/22-07-2016/poland-access-asylum-denied-eastern-borders" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Brest/Terespol border crossing</a>, where they attempt to cross into Poland by train, following in the footsteps of the much more numerous <a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/chechen-refugees-belarus-border-town-dream-reaching-eu/27841366.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Chechen refugees</a>. Most Tajiks try to claim asylum at the border as few have managed to obtain Schengen visas given <a href="http://news.tj/en/news/financial-restraints-do-not-allow-poland-open-embassy-tajikistan" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">the absence of a Polish embassy in Dushanbe</a> and many had to leave the country in a hurry, often after receiving a court summons, the precursor to a possible arrest.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Once at the Polish border, however, most Tajik asylum seekers never get the chance to ask for asylum. According to the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights, Tajik refugees have been <a href="http://programy.hfhr.pl/uchodzcy/files/2016/07/Access-to-asylum-denied-in-Poland.pdf" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">systematically prevented from applying for asylum at the border</a> by Polish border guards who send Tajik asylum seekers back to Belarus on a daily basis, in violation of the 1951 Refugee Convention. As a result, Tajik asylum seekers try their luck multiple times, with some making upwards of <a href="http://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/962842,polska-nie-przyjmuje-uchodzcow-ze-wschodu-zakaz-wjazdu-dla-tadzykow.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">40-50 unsuccessful attempts</a> to lodge their asylum claims at the border. A community of Tajik refugees has formed in the border town of Brest, staying in hotels and temporary apartments under the close watch of Belarusian security forces. Locals are profiting from their protracted stay at the border by renting out apartments at above-market prices.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tajik refugees are anxious to leave Belarus, fearing the very real threat of being extradited back to Tajikistan. These fears are by no means unfounded: Shabnam Khudoydodova, a Tajik migrant living in Russia who made online posts critical of her country’s government, was <a href="http://www.nhc.no/no/nyheter/Shabnam+Khudoydodova+released+from+detention.b7C_wlvS1o.ips" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">detained for eight months in Belarus awaiting extradition to Tajikistan </a>after being pushed back by Polish border guards. Her eventual release in February 2016 occurred as a result of international outcry, spearhead by major human rights organizations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tajiks fleeing persecution are wary of seeking protection in Russia and other CIS countries given the precedent of extra-judicial extraditions, the close cooperation between Russian and Tajik security services, and the high levels of xenophobia toward Tajiks in Russia. In November 2014, Maksud Ibragimov — the leader of the Russian-based “Youth of Tajikistan for Revival” organization — was stabbed outside his Moscow home before <a href="http://www.ahrca.eu/tadjikistan/torture-prevention/807-tajikistan-officially-reported-that-maksud-ibragimov-is-sentenced-to-17-years-of-imprisonment" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">being arrested by Russian authorities and subsequently smuggled out of the country</a> and back to Dushanbe in the baggage hold of an aircraft – all this despite him being a Russian citizen. In Tajikistan, Ibrgamiov was sentenced to 17 years in prison for extremist activities.</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Persecution at Home, Barriers in Poland</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Those who do manage to cross into Poland — on average just two to three Tajik asylum seekers are let in per day, according to Polish NGOs — find themselves in a difficult and precarious situation. Poland has a very poor track record of granting protection; out of more than 6,000 asylum applicants since the beginning of 2016, <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/asylum-and-managed-migration/data/database" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">only 45 were granted refugee status by Polish authorities</a>. Out of the 541 Tajik asylum applicants in 2015, just one individual managed to obtain asylum.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Judging by Polish asylum statistics, a vast majority of Tajiks move on to countries in Western Europe after filing their asylum applications at the border. In 2015, over 92 percent of all asylum applications filed by Tajik citizens were withdrawn due to the absence of the applicant, presumably due to the refugees having migrated onward to Germany. Though some are sent back to Poland on the basis of the EU Dublin Convention — which prescribes for asylum seekers to be sent back to the country where they first filed their application — most end up slipping through the cracks, living as undocumented refugees in other EU countries rather than remaining in Poland.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With the election of a right-wing government in Poland in late 2015 boasting an openly anti-migrant platform, things are looking increasingly bleak for Tajik refugees headed to Europe. While the Polish Border Guard insists that it is merely <a href="http://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/962842,polska-nie-przyjmuje-uchodzcow-ze-wschodu-zakaz-wjazdu-dla-tadzykow.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">upholding Schengen regulations and “fighting illegal migration,”</a> Polish NGOs and human rights organizations accuse the Polish authorities of engaging in illegal push-backs of Tajik asylum seekers in particular in the buffer zone between the Polish and Belarusian checkpoints, away from the eyes of UNHCR and other outside observers. In an open letter to the European Ombudsman and a number of international agencies, the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights called on the international community to “pressure the Polish government to act in accordance with its international obligations” and allow asylum seekers to file their claims in accordance with the law.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite the dramatic increase in their numbers, the plight of Tajik asylum seekers on the Polish border remains on the margins of the broader European refugee crisis. Poland may be witnessing an unprecedented spike in arrivals, but the Tajik influx is overshadowed by the much larger flows fleeing violence and persecution in Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East. There is also little evidence to suggest that Tajik migration to Poland may turn into a broader exodus from Central Asia as the numbers of asylum seekers from neighboring countries has been close to zero. Should the type of political crackdown seen in Tajikistan emerge in other Central Asian countries, we could well see more Central Asian refugees making their way to the Polish border. For the time being, Tajik refugees are stuck in limbo between persecution from an authoritarian government at home and the unwillingness of Polish authorities to provide them the protection they are so desperately searching for.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: bold; line-height: 18px;">By </span><span itemprop="author" style="font-weight: bold; line-height: 18px;">Yan Matusevich</span></span></div>
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<em><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yan Matusevich is a migration researcher and analyst with an MSc in Migration Studies from the University of Oxford. His work focuses on migrant rights in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.</span></em></div>
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<em style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px;">sourche: </em><span style="background-color: transparent; line-height: 20px;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, serif;"><i>http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/the-quiet-tajik-refugee-crisis/</i></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-44042926575375527262016-08-11T21:07:00.001+03:002016-08-11T21:07:41.230+03:00Impact of France’s evolving terrorist threat<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The wave of terrorist attacks that hit France in the last 18 months underscores that the country is a primary target for radical Islamist militants, while also having a deep political and economic impact.</span></span></i></div>
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="Impact of France’s evolving terrorist threat" height="250" src="http://globalriskinsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Eiffel-Tower-800x500_c.jpg" width="400" /></span></i></div>
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<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Two deadly terrorist attacks made July 2016 one of the bloodiest months so far in France’s modern history. A lone-wolf radical Islamist militant rammed his heavy lorry truck into crowds participating in Bastille Day events along the coastline of Nice, killing 85 people. The attack came only a day after President Hollande had hinted at a possible end to the state of emergency under which France has been since November 2015. The special legal measure has now been extended until January 2017.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">Less than two weeks after the Nice attack, two Islamic State-linked militants assaulted a </span><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-hostages-idUSKCN1060VA" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">Catholic church</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> in the northern city of Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray near Rouen. The perpetrators assassinated the local priest. The killing shocked the French public opinion and marked the first terrorist attack in the country specifically targeting Christian personnel.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The two aforementioned Islamic State inspired attacks highlight the fact that France is constantly exposed to an elevated terrorist threat. The reactions after these incidents also came as a stern reminder of the growing political tensions in a country that has experienced major attacks in its territory over the last 18 months.</span></span></div>
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<b style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Expansion of lone-wolf attacks</span></b></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">While much attention has rightfully been given to the radical Islamists’ operational </span><a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2015/11/a-strategic-shift-in-the-terrorist-threat-to-france/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">strategic shift </span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">following the complex and coordinated attacks that hit Paris in January and November 2015, recent months have exposed the enhanced risk posed by lone-wolf terrorist attacks.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">In June, as France was under </span><a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/06/france-euro-2016-security-conundrum/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">tight security</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> surveillance for the Euro 2016 football championship, a Sunni extremist killed two police officials in their residence in the Paris region. The attack underscored the issues linked with the increased presence in the French territory of radical Islamists willing to carry out individual attacks. This was later confirmed by the Nice assault.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As the Islamic State repeatedly called for all Muslims to wage attacks wherever they live, there is a heightened risk that radicalized individuals may try to conduct further terrorist acts in the country in the coming months. While these may not be as sophisticated as more complex operations, by nature they are more difficult to prevent and may still have a high impact.</span></span></div>
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<b style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A prime target for terrorists</span></b></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">The last 18 months have confirmed that France is among the Islamic State’s </span><a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/07/nice/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">top priority</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> international targets. The Middle East-based terrorist organisation has repeatedly used its vast francophone militant base to issue calls for attacks against the French territory, the national government and French oversea interests. The latest to date was a propaganda message issued from Iraq in which French speaking militants called for attacks in Paris, Nice and Marseille.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Islamic State has a two-tier strategy in regards to France. On the one hand, it relentlessly tries to plan and carry out complex terrorist attacks similar to the ones that hit Paris on November 2015. On the other hand, the group aims at increasing the number of lone-wolf assaults in a bid to portray itself as having far-reaching power projection capabilities and instilling a greater feeling of insecurity in the country.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The stated objective of the Islamic State for Western Europe, and especially for France, is to create a larger divide between Muslim and non-Muslim populations in order to fuel sectarian tensions within which radical Islamism may find fertile ground to prosper.</span></span></div>
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<b style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Loss of confidence in government action</span></b></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">The ongoing terrorist threat comes against the backdrop of greater political uncertainties. The Nice attack shocked the French public and further drove a wedge between the government and the French people. According to a </span><a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2016/07/17/01002-20160717ARTFIG00144-sondage-les-francais-ne-font-pas-confiance-au-gouvernement-pour-lutter-contre-le-terrorisme.php" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">Le Figaro poll</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> issued on July 17</span><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">th</span><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">, 67% of people asked do not trust the government in the ongoing fight against terrorism. The feeling was clearly echoed when Prime Minister Manuel Valls was met by a booing crowd at the Nice memorial service.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">This rift between the government and the French people is symbolic of the ongoing political crisis that France is facing. The ruling Parti Socialiste (PS) is </span><a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/07/uncertainty-parti-socialiste/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">torn</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> by the prospect of the 2017 presidential elections, and President Francois Hollande became the </span><a href="http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/04/hollande-politically-finished/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">most unpopular</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> president the country has ever had since the beginning of the Fifth Republic.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In this climate, it is increasingly difficult for the government to push forward much needed security and judicial reforms that are required to adapt to the evolving terrorist threat.</span></span></div>
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<b style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A weakened tourist sector</span></b></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">The wave of terrorist attacks that hit France in the last 18 months is not only having an impact on the country’s political sphere, but it is also </span><a href="http://www.metronews.fr/info/terrorisme-les-attentats-font-chuter-le-tourisme-en-france/mphg!kaP1SXjpX4jtM/" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.2s; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">negatively affecting</span></a><span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"> its economy. In the first semester of 2016, France reported a decrease of 10% of the overall number of hotel bookings in comparison to the same period last year. Over the summer season, there has been 20% drop in bookings of international flights to the country. The tourism sector is likely to remain the most affected by the ongoing terrorist threat. However, a decrease in international tourists to France would have greater structural impact to the country’s economy, as it would result in an overall decrease in the demand for tourism related services. Given the current economic risk, the government is putting forth a tourism promotion plan aimed at solidifying France’s international attraction, regardless of the ongoing security risk.</span></span></div>
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sourche: http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/08/impact-france-evolving-terrorist-threat/</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01797859259900214786noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2176815464513475528.post-64006087699324329652016-08-11T21:02:00.003+03:002016-08-11T21:02:45.328+03:00Γιατί η Κίνα δεν μπορεί να λύσει το πρόβλημα του χρέους της<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Για πολύ καιρό επιβίωνε ένα στερεότυπο για την οικονομία της Κίνας: πως εάν η ανάπτυξη επιβραδυνόταν σημαντικά οι συνετοί τεχνοκράτες του Πεκίνου θα μπορούσαν πάντα να τη στηρίζουν με δημοσιονομικά μέτρα και να κρατούν τα χρηματοπιστωτικά ιδρύματα της χώρας εν ζωή. Σε συνδυασμό με τα αισιόδοξα επίσημα στοιχεία για τα ελλείμματα, το επιχείρημα αυτό ακουγόταν για λίγο καιρό καθησυχαστικό.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ωστόσο, τώρα η πραγματικότητα παρεμβαίνει με σκληρό τρόπο. Τα δημόσια οικονομικά της Κίνας είναι σε χειρότερη κατάσταση από το κοινώς αντιληπτό. Και καθώς τα επίπεδα του χρέους αυξάνονται και η οικονομία παραμένει υποτονική, η ικανότητα της κυβέρνησης να ενισχύσει την ανάπτυξη μοιάζει όλο και πιο επισφαλής. Χωρίς μεταρρυθμίσεις, θα υπάρξουν δυσάρεστες συνέπειες.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Σύμφωνα με το Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο, η Κίνα αναμένεται να εμφανίσει ένα μέτριο έλλειμμα προϋπολογισμού ύψους 3% του ΑΕΠ το τρέχον έτος, με ένα διαχειρίσιμο φορτίο χρέους -ίσο με το 46,8% της οικονομίας- που την κατατάσσει στην 100η θέση μεταξύ 184 χωρών. Εκ πρώτης όψεως, λοιπόν, η κινεζική οικονομία δείχνει να βρίσκεται σε καλή θέση για να διαχειριστεί οποιαδήποτε επιβράδυνση.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Αλλά υπάρχουν πράγματα που δεν βλέπει το "γυμνό μάτι". Το νούμερο στο οποίο καταλήγει το ΔΝΤ αφορά μόνο το χρέος της κεντρικής κυβέρνησης και όχι αυτό των επαρχιών και των δήμων. Δεδομένου ότι περισσότερο από το 80% των δημοσίων δαπανών στην Κίνα πραγματοποιούνται από τις τοπικές κυβερνήσεις, η παράλειψη είναι σημαντική. Αν υποθέσουμε απλά ότι οι κυβερνήσεις αυτές άγγιξαν το μέγιστο θεσμοθετημένο όριο χρέους το περασμένο έτος -συνολικά 16 τρισεκατομμύρια γουάν – ο συνολικός δημόσιος δανεισμός διπλασιάζεται, καθώς αυξάνεται κατά 47% του ΑΕΠ.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ωστόσο, ακόμη και η υπόθεση αυτή είναι αισιόδοξη. Έρευνα της Εθνικής Ελεγκτικής Υπηρεσίας της Κίνας το 2013 εντόπισε εκκρεμείς οφειλές 18 τρισ. γουάν. Με άλλα λόγια, το χρέος είχε ήδη υπερβεί το νόμιμο όριο του 2015 πριν από τρία χρόνια. Και έκτοτε, τα τοπικά οικονομικά καταγράφουν μόνο επιδείνωση. Το ΔΝΤ εκτίμησε το περασμένο έτος πως το συνολικό δημοσιονομικό έλλειμμα φτάνει το 10% του ΑΕΠ. Η Goldman Sachs το τοποθέτησε πρόσφατα σε περίπου 15%. Τα μεγέθη αυτά είναι τεράστια: δείχνουν ένα επίπεδο ελλείμματος αντίστοιχο με αυτό που εμφάνισαν οι ΗΠΑ κατά τη διάρκεια της οικονομικής κρίσης του 2008 - ίσως και χειρότερο.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Και παρ'ολ'αυτά εξακολουθούν να συγκαλύπτουν το πραγματικό ποσό. Οι τοπικές κυβερνήσεις που προσπαθούν να αποφύγουν τους περιορισμούς στο χρέος παρέχουν συχνά εγγυήσεις για εξωισολογιστικά δάνεια (ρητά ή μη) και συστήνουν δημόσιες επιχειρήσεις που εκτελούν έργα για λογαριασμό τους. Πέρυσι, η αύξηση των υποχρεώσεών τους ήταν τόσο εξόφθαλμη που το Πεκίνο αναγκάστηκε να "κατασκευάσει" ένα πακέτο διάσωσης επιβάλλοντας μια συμφωνία ανταλλαγής χρέους με τις κρατικές τράπεζες.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Επιπλέον, οι επενδυτές και οι οίκοι αξιολόγησης δυσκολεύονται να διαχωρίσουν το ιδιωτικό από το δημόσιο χρέος. Στην Κίνα πιστεύεται ευρέως ότι η κυβέρνηση βρίσκεται πίσω από το περισσότερο χρέος που οφείλουν οι κρατικά ελεγχόμενες επιχειρήσεις σε στρατηγικής σημασίας ή άλλες ευνοούμενες επιχειρήσεις. Και οι επενδυτές έτειναν να πιστεύουν ότι η κυβέρνηση είναι εκεί για να στηρίξει κάθε μεγάλη εταιρεία ή έργο.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Μέχρι στιγμής είχαν δίκιο: Παρά την αύξηση των χρεοκοπιών, η κυβέρνηση δεν έχει επιτρέψει σε καμία σημαντική επιχείρηση να καταρρεύσει υπό το φόβο πως αυτό θα πυροδοτούσε μια κρίση. Ωστόσο, οι πιέσεις αυξάνονται για το τραπεζικό σύστημα της Κίνας και με το δημόσιο χρέος να αποτελεί πιο σοβαρό πρόβλημα από ό,τι δείχνουν τα επίσημα στοιχεία -και να συνεχίζει να διογκώνεται- τα περιθώρια ευελιξίας της κυβέρνησης στενεύουν σημαντικά. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Υπάρχουν μια σειρά από βήματα που το Πεκίνο θα μπορούσε να κάνει για να αντιμετωπίσει αυτό το χάλι. Η απομόχλευση θα πρέπει να είναι το πρώτο. Η επιβολή περιορισμών στην ποσότητα που μπορούν να δανειστούν οι τοπικές κυβερνήσεις απλά ενθαρρύνει την εύρεση νέων και δημιουργικών μεθόδων να απκρύπτουν τα χρέη τους, καθιστώντας ακόμη πιο δύσκολο τον έλεγχό τους. Πιο αποτελεσματικό –αν και λιγότερο ελκυστικό πολιτικά- θα ήταν να επιτραπεί στις επιχειρήσεις ζόμπι να καταρρεύσουν, επιβραδύνοντας το ρυθμό των επενδύσεων σε αποδοχή βραδύτερης αύξησης του ΑΕΠ.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Αντ' αυτού, το Πεκίνο φαίνεται να προσεύχεται στο δημοσιονομικό πολλαπλασιαστή, ελπίζοντας ότι με ακόμη περισσότερα μέτρα στήριξης θα μπορέσει να δραπετεύσει από τα προβλήματά του, όπως περίπου έκανε πριν από μια δεκαετία. Όμως, η περίοδος μετά το 2000 είχε μοναδικά χαρακτηριστικά, καθώς η Κίνα εντάχθηκε στον Παγκόσμιο Οργανισμό Εμπορίου, η παγκόσμια ανάπτυξη ώθησε τα έσοδα από εξαγωγές και οι προϋπολογισμοί αυτό-επιδιορθώνονταν με μαγικό τρόπο. Η κυβέρνηση πρέπει να αποδεχθεί ότι η ιστορία είναι απίθανο να επαναληφθεί.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Αν δεν το κάνει, τα αυξανόμενα επισφαλή δάνεια, τα διψήφια ελλείμματα και το ασταθές χρηματοπιστωτικό σύστημα θα δημιουργήσουν έναν ολοένα πιο ασταθή συνδυασμό. Οι bearish επενδυτές που αναμένουν υποτιμήσεις μεγάλης κλίμακας και τραπεζικές κρίσεις διακρίνουν τους κινδύνους που ιστορικά συνόδευαν τέτοιες σπατάλες. Παίρνοντας ως δεδομένο ότι η πιστωτική ικανότητα της Κίνας δεν μπορεί να επεκτείνεται για πάντα, τότε πρέπει να σταματήσει -είτε από επιλογή είτε με τη βία.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 22.9608px;">Του </span><a data-reactid=".1y45fjrhs74.0.3.0.1.2.1.$OBK5P46JTSEB01.0.5.1.$ASlOEsJOMrg/christopher-balding" data-tracker-action="click" data-tracker-category="nav" data-tracker-events="click" data-tracker-label="article.byline" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/view/contributors/ASlOEsJOMrg/christopher-balding" rel="author" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #00b9e7; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Christopher Balding</a></span></div>
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ΠΗΓΗ: http://www.capital.gr/bloomberg-view/3147156/giati-i-kina-den-mporei-na-lusei-to-problima-tou-xreous-tis</div>
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