«Καπνός» τα δισ. της πρώτης διάσωσης

Ούτε για «τραυμαπλάστ» δεν έφτασαν τα 25 δισ. ευρώ που έβαλαν οι Ελληνες φορολογούμενοι στις ελληνικές τράπεζες το 2013, για να καλύψουν τις κεφαλαιακές ανάγκες και να «διασώσουν» το χρηματοπιστωτικό σύστημα της χώρας. Από τα χρήματα αυτά που επένδυσε πριν από δύο χρόνια το Ταμείο Χρηματοπιστωτικής Σταθερότητας στις τράπεζες, έχουν «απομείνει» σήμερα μόλις 3 δισ. ευρώ και πλέον το ελληνικό κράτος ετοιμάζεται να δανειστεί άλλα 20-25 δισ. ευρώ για να ξανασώσει τις τράπεζες στις οποίες είναι ο μεγαλύτερος μέτοχος.

Απαιτούνται άλλα 25 δισ. ευρώ δάνειο στο πλαίσιο της συμφωνίας για την ανακεφαλαιοποίηση. Τα έχασαν όλα και οι ιδιώτες που επένδυσαν επιπλέον 8,3 δισ. ευρώ στις περσινές αυξήσεις κεφαλαίου

Η κατάρρευση των τραπεζικών αξιών στο Χρηματιστήριο τους προηγούμενους μήνες, αλλά κυρίως την τελευταία εβδομάδα όταν και εξαϋλώθηκαν εν ριπή οφθαλμού 8 δισ. ευρώ από την εναπομείνασα χρηματιστηριακή αξία των τραπεζών (από τα 13 δισ. ευρώ υποχώρησε μέχρι τα 4,6 δισ. ευρώ), σήμανε την ολοσχερή απώλεια των χρημάτων που επένδυσαν τόσο οι ιδιώτες επενδυτές πέρυσι (8,3 δισ. ευρώ) όσο κυρίως το ελληνικό κράτος μέσω του Ταμείου Χρηματοπιστωτικής Σταθερότητας.

The Little Anti-Corruption Agency That Could

 
December 10, 2010, former Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader was driving with his brother on an Alpine highway when Austrian police stopped his car and arrested him under an international warrant. Sanader had fled Croatia a day earlier, hours before his colleagues in parliament — still led by his own party — stripped him of legislative immunity. The Austrians extradited him back home, where he was facing charges of large-scale corruption. After a year-long trial, he was convicted and sentenced to 10 years’ imprisonment, shortened to eight and a half on appeal, for illegal kickbacks totaling 10 million euros. (In late July 2015, he was granted a retrial.)

China seeks to secure oil supply in the South China Sea

China’s land reclamation is not just rooted in erecting a military and political presence in the South China Sea, but in its desire to safeguard the security of its petroleum supply.

China’s land reclamation project among the disputed islands in the South China Sea has drawn extensive international attention. While focus has been on China’s military presence, there seems to be another implication of China’s provocative behaviour. In fact, erecting bases within the region is an extension of China’s oil supply security strategy.

Geopolitics come first, and the bailout deal follows

Egypt's President Sisi inaugurated today the "New Suez Canal" ordering a national celebration that drew the attention of international media. The reason is not that much the Canal itself, but the gathering of a handful of political leaders.

Egypt was looking to build on a new national narrative that would bring back sentiments of pride and a feeling of regional assertiveness for Sisi. In a tough and complex geopolitical environment, with the war against ISIS to intensify, Turkey and the United States to form a powerful alliance against the jihadists, Iran to transform from rogue state to Middle East regulator, and energy regional struggle to come back in the headlines, Egypt wanted to demonstrate that it remains in the center of global developments, able to construe that whatever geopolitical shifts occur, Cairo remains a center for decision-making in the Middle East and a power that can share global developments and preserve stability in a highly tumultuous environment. 

The 'sanitised narrative' of Hiroshima's atomic bombing

The US has always insisted that the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were necessary to end World War Two. But it is a narrative that has little emphasis on the terrible human cost.

I met a remarkable young man in Hiroshima the other day. His name is Jamal Maddox and he is a student at Princeton University in America. Jamal had just toured the peace museum and met with an elderly hibakusha, a survivor of the bombing.

Το χρέος της Ελλάδας μπορεί και πρέπει να μειωθεί εντός ευρώ

Ίσως η μεγαλύτερη ζημιά που προκλήθηκε από την αντιπαράθεση με την Ελλάδα, είναι μια γενική απώλεια της εμπιστοσύνης. Εάν θέλουμε να βάλουμε την Ελλάδα ξανά σε τροχιά ανάκαμψης, οι άνθρωποι, οι επιχειρήσεις και οι επενδυτές, πρέπει να ανακτήσουν την εμπιστοσύνη στη βιωσιμότητα της χώρας. Για να λειτουργήσει αυτό, είναι απαραίτητα μια νόμιμη και ικανή κυβέρνηση καθώς και μια αποτελεσματική διοίκηση και δικαστικό σώμα. Ωστόσο το θέμα της βιωσιμότητας του χρέους είναι ακόμη κεντρικής σημασίας, ακόμη και αν το κόστος εξυπηρέτησης χρέους είναι αμελητέο βραχυπρόθεσμα. Κανένας δεν αμφισβητεί την ανάλυση του ΔΝΤ ότι η βιωσιμότητα του ελληνικού κρατικού χρέους αποτελεί βασική προϋπόθεση για την ανάκαμψη.

Is Natural Gas As Clean As We Think?

This week U.S. President Barack Obama took aim at the American coal industry as part of a comprehensive climate change plan to limit air emissions from what many consider the country's worst polluter.

Under the plan, states will have until 2030 to cut CO2 levels by a third from what they were in 2005. Outside the United States, Europe is using less coal, the Canadian province of Ontario shut down its coal-fired power generation (albeit in favor of more expensive renewables), and the World Bank last week rejected the notion that coal can cure poverty.

5 things needed to turn the SDGs into reality

Now that the sustainable development goals are — in the main — agreed, what needs to happen to turn this global manifesto into a national policy agenda?

Members of development organizations, governments, private sector, civil society and academia work together at the WCMC Scenarios Workshop to outline ideas on future socio-economic drivers of change for food security, environments and livelihoods in Southeast Asia. Photo by: CGIAR / Elisabeth van de Grift / CC BY-NC-SA

The clock to SDG attainment will start ticking Jan. 1, 2016. Here are five things that will be important to ensure the much-debated goals and targets — and the overarching vision of a new future for everyone — actually start to be implemented.

Greece’s Refugee Crisis and Europe’s Failure

As if Greece didn’t have enough on its hands after its European creditors forced it to accept a damaging bailout deal last month, it is also trying to cope with more refugees crossing the Mediterranean to its shores than to any other country in Europe. It is unconscionable for Europe to expect Greece to shoulder this burden, yet that is exactly what is happening.

Refugees at a temporary camp on the Greek island of Lesbos. CreditSergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

More than 107,000 refugees and immigrants have landed in Greece this year, surpassing the 80,000 reaching Italy. More than half are Syrians fleeing the civil war.

Συμβουλές από την αρχαιότητα

Η δημοσιονομική και οικονομική κρίση στην Ελλάδα έχει οξύνει τις συζητήσεις μεταξύ οικονομολόγων, πολιτικών επιστημόνων και πολιτικών για τους πολιτικούς θεσμούς και την οικονομική ανάπτυξη. Προωθούν όντως οι καλοί θεσμοί -η δημοκρατία και το κράτος δικαίου- την ανάπτυξη; Ή οι καλοί θεσμοί κατέστησαν δυνατοί μόνο λόγω της προηγούμενης ανάπτυξης μιας ακμάζουσας οικονομίας; Σημαντικές αποφάσεις για το μέλλον της Ελλάδας είναι πιθανό να προκύψουν αρκετά διαφορετικές, ανάλογα με το πώς θα απαντήσουν οι πολιτικοί σε αυτήν την ερώτηση.

Το άγαλμα του φιλοσόφου Σωκράτη και η ελληνική σημαία στην Αθήνα, στις 23 Απριλίου 2010. YIORGOS KARAHALIS / REUTERS

Η ιστορία είναι το προφανές πεδίο δοκιμών για τις ανταγωνιστικές θεωρίες. Αλλά οι περισσότερες ιστορικές δοκιμές των βασικών ιδεών στην πολιτική οικονομία είχαν, μέχρι πρόσφατα, επικεντρωθεί στις τελευταίες αρκετές εκατοντάδες χρόνια της κυρίως ευρωπαϊκής ιστορίας. Ωστόσο, ο περιορισμός του δείγματος για την μελέτη της σχέσης ανάμεσα στην πολιτική και την οικονομική ανάπτυξη στα σύγχρονα κράτη είναι προβληματικός, επειδή άλλοι παράγοντες εκτός από την θεσμική καινοτομία, όπως η αξιοποίηση του Νέου Κόσμου και της τεχνολογικής προόδου, έχουν επηρεάσει τις σύγχρονες οικονομίες. Ίσως ειρωνικά, ο δρόμος προς μια λύση οδηγεί πίσω στην Ελλάδα -μάλιστα, πίσω στην αρχαία Ελλάδα, η ιστορία της οποίας προσφέρει μια λεπτομερή «εκτός δείγματος» επίδειξη του πώς οι καλοί θεσμοί προωθούν την οικονομική ανάπτυξη.

Bringing Turkey's Border Strategy Into Focus

Satellite images taken at the Turkey-Syria border corroborate what Stratfor predicted weeks ago: that Turkey, now partnered with the United States, will strike at Islamic State-controlled territory adjacent to the Turkish border. The Turks reportedly began to reinforce their southern border with troops and equipment as early as July 3. But according to these images, which were taken July 26, we now know that that equipment includes Turkish-made main battle tanks and support units poised in a defensive position on the Turkish side of the border.

Cameron’s renegotiation plans: The view from Warsaw

David Cameron aims to get a quick agreement on the EU’s reform agenda but parliamentary elections in Poland on October 25^th may complicate his plans. Although Law and Justice, the party leading in the opinion polls, belongs to the same political group as the Tories in the European Parliament, it may prove a tough negotiating partner in the European Council.

Soon after his election victory in May, British prime minister David Cameron toured Europe to discuss his plans to renegotiate the UK’s relationship with the EU. By making Warsaw one of the first stops on his trip Cameron hoped to improve relations with Poland, which deteriorated as his anti-migration rhetoric hardened. During his first term as prime minister, Cameron did not visit Warsaw at all.

Energy Security and the Cyprus Question: “Securitization” of Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean

In February 2014, Nikos Anastasiades, the President of the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) and Dervis Eroglu, the Turkish-Cypriot leader, signed a Joint Declaration establishing certain “ground-rules” upon which the then stalled peace talks -aiming at the island’s reunificationcould be revived. This evolution was arguably prompted by the discovery of new energy sources in the Eastern Mediterranean, and especially offshore the RoC. Gas had initially been portrayed as a potential catalyst for a restart of the long-standing peace process, and possibly for its successful conclusion. Nevertheless, a couple of months later, it seemed that these discoveries had worked against these aspirations and added chill to the Cyprus conflict. In October 2014, a Turkish navigational warning notified mariners that Turkey would soon perform its seismic surveys in sea areas that encroach on Cyprus’s EEZ, raising concerns on the escalation of the existing protracted conflict. Anastasiades withdrew from the negotiations, attributing his decision to these activities.

Chasing the dragon: Russia's courtship of China

Russian leaders talk of a pivot to Asia and a strategic partnership with China partly to frighten the West. But behind the warm rhetoric, many Russians worry about China dominating their bilateral relationship, and China worries that Russia’s confrontation with the West will get out of hand. What China wants from Russia is an open road to Europe; but that is not part of Russia’s plan. 

The Russian authorities like to claim that they have a lot in common with China: both emerging economic powers, both permanent members of the UN Security Council, but above all both non-Western and perhaps even anti-Western powers. A recent report by the influential and well-connected Russian International Affairs Council argues that “the bond between Moscow and Beijing…will serve as basis for creating a ‘non-American’ world”. As Russia’s relationship with the West has deteriorated as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, Russian officials have talked more about a Russian ‘pivot to Asia’.

The Geopolitics of the Syrian Civil War

International diplomats will gather Jan. 22 in the Swiss town of Montreux to hammer out a settlement designed to end Syria's three-year civil war. The conference, however, will be far removed from the reality on the Syrian battleground. Only days before the conference was scheduled to begin, a controversy threatened to engulf the proceedings after the United Nations invited Iran to participate, and Syrian rebel representatives successfully pushed for the offer to be rescinded. The inability to agree upon even who would be attending the negotiations is an inauspicious sign for a diplomatic effort that was never likely to prove very fruitful.

Out of the Bretton Woods

When China proposed the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in late 2013, it hoped to offer a regional alternative to the multilateral institutions of the Bretton Woods system that left Asia underrepresented. When 58 member nations bucked Washington’s warnings and joined the bank this year, including allies of the United States and G–7 stalwarts such as France, Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, China realized that it had a potential vanguard for an alternative economic world order.

The Company Getting Rich Off the ISIS War

For the Middle East, the growth of the self-proclaimed Islamic State has been a catastrophe. For one American firm, it’s been a gold mine.

Photo Illustration by Emil Lendof/The Daily Beast

The war against ISIS isn’t going so great, with the self-appointed terror group standing up to a year of U.S. airstrikes in Syria and Iraq.