The Next Front in the Saudi-Iran War

It looks like 2016 was born in violence. Saudi Arabia’s execution of popular Saudi Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr has led to an escalation with its regional nemesis, Iran. After Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Tehran was sacked by an angry Iranian mob, Riyadh severed diplomatic ties with the country and organized a regional coalition of countries to isolate it further — Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Djibouti, and Sudan have all cut or downgraded diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic in the incident’s aftermath. Iran accused Saudi Arabia of going even further Thursday, claiming that Saudi warplanes had launched airstrikes against its embassy in war-torn Yemen.

It’s Time for the United States to Start Worrying About a Saudi Collapse

As if there weren’t already enough problems to worry about in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia might be headed for trouble. From plummeting oil prices to foreign-policy missteps to growing tensions with Iran, a confluence of recent events is mounting to pose some serious challenges for the Saudi regime. If not properly managed, these events could eventually coalesce into a perfect storm that significantly increases the risk of instability within the kingdom, with untold consequences for global oil markets and security in the Middle East.

It’s Not Diplomacy, It’s an Arms Fair

The summit between President Barack Obama and representatives from the Persian Gulf countries that kicked off today at Camp David is meant to reassure Washington’s Arab allies. “Don’t worry about the nuclear deal with Iran,” Obama will say. “We’ve got your back.”

And what’s the best way to show your friends that you’ve got their back? Sell them billions of dollars worth of advanced weapons. In fact, it seems like arms sales are the Obama administration’s tool of choice these days for dealing with everything from counterterrorism to a lagging economy. And the consequences, unsurprisingly, are bloody.

Rally Round the Flag in Riyadh

On a recent Saturday morning, Saudi national guardsman Abdulaziz Al Omran and his friend Khaled bin Mohammed sat down at a cafe on Tahlia St. to discuss their country’s military operations in Yemen. The 30-somethings wore designer sunglasses, one with shorts and a t-shirt and other in the baggy pants of a Riyadh hipster. They blended in amid a handful of tables full of similarly dressed young men.

Saudi Arabia and Iran Compete in Yemen

Militiamen loyal to the government of Yemeni President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi sit on top of tanks in the southern city of Aden. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)

While the al-Houthi movement struggles to manage multiple regional challenges to its north, its rise to power in Yemen is a setback for Saudi Arabia on its southern flank. After the fall of the Yemeni government, Riyadh will have to capitalize on the al-Houthis' need for political and financial support to re-establish its influence in the country. But because Iran is trying to fill that support gap, too, Yemen has become another battleground where the two sectarian rivals will struggle against one another.

Money v. Principles: Sweden Turns Its Back on Saudi Arabia, Cancels Defense Deal

It’s not often one has the chance to write this sentence and have it actually be true: What a fascinating few months it’s been in Swedish foreign policy!

In the opening months of the country’s new leftist government, Swedenbecame the first in Europe to recognize the state of Palestine, leading Israel to withdraw its ambassador in protest, and Sweden’s military carried out a frantic hunt for what in all likelihood was a Russian submarine lurking outside Stockholm. The country is now embroiled in a diplomatic standoff with Saudi Arabia after cancelling an arms deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Riyadh has now also withdrawn its ambassador and joined the Israelis in venting a hollow kind of indignation over Sweden’s decisions.

In Saudi Arabia, Can an Adversary Become a Partner?

In spite of recent media leaks and statements, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will strategically alter its opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood. The rhetorical softening of the new monarch's position toward the Islamist movement is instead part of efforts to better manage Saudi Arabia's regional challenges. In order to effectively fight the Islamic State, Riyadh needs to build a regional anti-jihadi alliance — of which the Muslim Brotherhood could be a part. However, Saudi Arabia will need to ensure that the Muslim Brotherhood cannot threaten Arab states already weakened by the Arab Spring. If it loosens its tough stance, Saudi Arabia risks igniting worse regional problems.

On Feb. 17, Saudi King Salman held a meeting with Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, during the latter's visit to Riyadh. The meeting occurred only days after Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said, "We do not have a problem with the Muslim Brotherhood. Our problem is with a small group of people who demand allegiance from the people." The statement and the meeting made many observers speculate that the new king could change from a zero-tolerance policy toward the Qatar-backed Muslim Brotherhood to one of tepid engagement.

Shale Rivals OPEC As Swing Producer

Could U.S. shale rival Saudi Arabia when it comes to playing the role of swing producer?

Saudi Arabia has long been the only real oil producer in the world that could ramp up or down its production at a moment’s notice. This is due to its very large oil production capacity that is usually not fully utilized. In other words, Saudi Arabia has the ability to produce much more oil than it does in any given year, with this latent “spare capacity” reserved for times of need.

Saudi Arabia Faces Challenges in the New Year

The Middle East is one of the most volatile regions in the world — it is no stranger to upheaval. The 2009 uprisings in Iran and the brinksmanship of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government were followed by the chaos of the Arab Spring, the spillover of the Syrian conflict into Iraq and a potential realignment of the U.S.-Iranian relationship. Unlike recent years, however, 2015 is likely to see regional Sunni Arab interests realign toward a broader acceptance of moderate political Islam. The region is emerging from the uncertainty of the past half-decade, and the foundations of its future are taking shape. This process will not be neat or orderly, but changes are clearly taking place surrounding the Syrian and Libyan conflicts, as well as the region's anticipation of a strengthened Iran.

The Middle East enters 2015 facing several crises. Libyan instability remains a threat to North African security, and the Levant and Persian Gulf must figure out how to adjust course in the wake of the U.S.-Iranian negotiations, the Sunni-Shiite proxy war in Syria and Iraq, and the power vacuum created by a Turkish state bogged down by internal concerns that prevent it from assuming a larger role throughout the region. Further undermining the region is the sharp decline in global oil prices. While Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates will be able to use considerable cash reserves to ride out the slump, the rest of the Middle East's oil-exporting economies face dire consequences.

The UAE and Saudi War on the Muslim Brotherhood Could Be Trouble for the U.S.

The UAE Cabinet approved a list of 83 designated terrorist organizations on Saturday, including al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Much more significant, though, was the inclusion of many Muslim organizations based in the West that are believed to be allied with the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Prominent among them are two American Muslim groups: the Council on American Islamic Relations and the Muslim American Society.

The decision to put two mainstream U.S. Muslim groups on its list of terrorist organizations is part of an initiative, together with the Saudis, to undermine the Islamist movement known as the Muslim Brotherhood. The move is unlikely to succeed, but it could cause problems between the U.S. government and the American Muslim community.

Winners and Losers in the Syrian Civil War

By Mohammed Nuruzzaman

Photo: Freedom House/flickr.

The Syrian civil war, which has seen a stalemate for nearly three years, shows no signs of a negotiated political solution. The Geneva II peace talks, that opened on 22 January, are highly unlikely to result in a breakthrough, absent a miracle. There is irreconcilable tension between the oppositional Syrian National Coalitions’s (SNC) demand for a future Syria without President Bashar Al-Assad and Al-Assad government’s policy priority to secure international support to fight what it calls rebellious terrorists. That may well leave a military victory, either by the government or the opposition rebels, as the final option to break out of the deadlock.

World Citizen: U.S.-Saudi Ties Go From Bad to Worse

For almost 70 years, the foundation of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy rested on the kingdom’s relationship with the United States. America guaranteed Saudi security during a famous 1945 meeting between President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz ibn Saud aboard the USS Quincy in the Suez Canal. That commitment had stood the test of history.

Saudi Prince Criticizes Obama Administration, Citing Indecision in Mideast

MONACO — An influential Saudi prince blasted the Obama administration on Sunday for what he called indecision and a loss of credibility with allies in the Middle East, saying that American efforts to secure a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians would founder without a clear commitment from President Obama.

Israelis, Saudis and the Iranian Agreement

A deal between Iran and the P-5+1 (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany) was reached Saturday night. The Iranians agreed to certain limitations on their nuclear program while the P-5+1 agreed to remove certain economic sanctions. The next negotiation, scheduled for six months from now depending on both sides' adherence to the current agreement, will seek a more permanent resolution. The key players in this were the United States and Iran. The mere fact that the U.S. secretary of state would meet openly with the Iranian foreign minister would have been difficult to imagine a few months ago, and unthinkable at the beginning of the Islamic republic. 

The U.S. goal is to eliminate Iran's nuclear weapons before they are built, without the United States having to take military action to eliminate them. While it is commonly assumed that the United States could eliminate the Iranian nuclear program at will with airstrikes, as with most military actions, doing so would be more difficult and riskier than it might appear at first glance. The United States in effect has now traded a risky and unpredictable air campaign for some controls over the Iranian nuclear program. 

Why Saudi Arabia Hates the Iran Deal

By David Kenner

BEIRUT - As President Barack Obama pursues a historic deal with Iran over its nuclear program, he has already made history -- though perhaps not in the way he intended. For the first time since the United States emerged as a major power in the Middle East, all of its key allies -- Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia -- are in open revolt against its policies. 

Saudi Arabia said to have bought nukes from Pakistan

Saudi Arabia may be prepared to field nuclear bombs it has purchased from Pakistan in response to Iran’s alleged military nuclear program, and may already have deployed missile systems capable of delivering the bombs, the BBC reported on Wednesday.

Test launch of a Pakistan-made Shaheen ballistic missile (screen capture: Youtube/Al Jazeera English)

According to Mark Urban, diplomatic and defense editor for the BBC’sNewsnight, there are suggestions that the Saudis have paid for a number of nuclear weapons that are ready and waiting in Pakistan. If the reports are accurate, the kingdom could have atomic weapons on its missiles even before Iran has that capability.

The U.S.-Saudi Rift: Three Things to Know

Tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia have reached their highest point in the countries' decades-long alliance as Riyadh expresses its dissatisfaction with the Obama administration's handling of Middle East affairs. CFR's Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow Fred Kaplan highlights three things to know about the rift in the U.S.-Saudi relationship:

US on Saudi rejection of UNSC seat: ‘We don’t agree on every single issue’

The US does not agree with its allies on every single issue, the State Department said Friday, hours after Saudi Arabia announced it was rejecting a United Nations Security Council seat to which it was elected Thursday.

State Department Spokesperson Jen Psaki told reporters Friday that Saudi Arabia was going to “make their own decision” and that the US will continue to work with the Kingdom on “a range of issues.”

Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As The World's Top Oil Producer Within A Decade

There's still some debate about whether America's shale oil boom is  merely an overnight sensation or a true-blue gamechanger — we've featured both sides here.

In a new study published by Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, former oil company executive Leonardo Maugeri predicts that for America's three largest shale oil plays — the Bakken in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford and Permian Basin in Texas — the boom should last at least another decade.

Saudis offer extra oil to control prices

Saudi Arabia has offered its main customers in the US, Europe and Asia extra oil supplies through the end of the year, a sign the world’s largest exporter is worried about the impact of rising prices on the global economy.

The Group of Seven finance ministers last month called on oil exporters to expand production. Saudi Arabia initially reacted coolly to the request, saying that global supply and demand were balanced. But the kingdom has recently taken steps to bring down prices, consulting with large refiners and offering them extra oil.