ADRIFT: THE IMPACT OF THE ECJ'S SAFE HARBOUR RULING

The Court's decision to invalidate a transatlantic agreement on data flows could fragment the internet, harm Europe's digital single market and threaten the EU's geopolitical interests.

On October 6th, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) suspended the ‘Safe Harbour’ transatlantic agreement on data flows. In doing so, the Court overstretched its competence by answering a question it was not asked, and in the process changed the way the internet is governed. The decision has created legal uncertainty about whether companies can move data from the EU to the US.

East Africa’s pipeline politics in 2016

East Africa’s LAPSSET project remains at the volatile nexus of political and commercial dynamics with its short to medium term success increasingly unlikely.

East Africa’s aspirations for economic integration were intended to be catalysed through Kenya’s flagship LAPSSET project; however, it continues to face serious obstacles. The ‘mega-project’ is designed to serve as a regional transport corridor – improving trade between Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan (excluding Tanzania) – complemented by a pipeline network which would improve its feasibility.

How Low Oil Prices Are Transforming Global Politics In Startling Ways

As 2015 drew to a close, many in the global energy industry were praying that the price of oil would bounce back from the abyss, restoring the petroleum-centric world of the past half-century. All evidence, however, points to a continuing depression in oil prices in 2016 -- one that may, in fact, stretch into the 2020s and beyond. Given the centrality of oil (and oil revenues) in the global power equation, this is bound to translate into a profound shakeup in the political order, with petroleum-producing states from Saudi Arabia to Russia losing both prominence and geopolitical clout.

Between Russian and U.S. Saber Rattling, Georgia Seeks a Middle Path

In a United Nations summit defined by the competing world visions of the United States and Russia, the tiny South Caucasus nation of Georgia is doing all it can to stay out of the fray and avoid angering either Washington or Moscow.

Doing so, according to Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili, would only set back Tbilisi’s efforts to regain control of its lost territories and improve its economic situation.

Moving Toward a Geopolitical Marketplace

This column frames a question to which I do not have the answer. Or think of it as a historical agenda: How can we bring the logic of free market exchange into the domain of geopolitical conflict?

Why would we want to do such a thing? It's not simply a matter of substituting gold for guns, or nonviolent exchange for violent exchange. The question I am posing is not based on some utopian hope for perpetual peace. The distinction I want to focus on is the difference between zero-sum conflict and positive-sum exchange.

Geopolitics come first, and the bailout deal follows

Egypt's President Sisi inaugurated today the "New Suez Canal" ordering a national celebration that drew the attention of international media. The reason is not that much the Canal itself, but the gathering of a handful of political leaders.

Egypt was looking to build on a new national narrative that would bring back sentiments of pride and a feeling of regional assertiveness for Sisi. In a tough and complex geopolitical environment, with the war against ISIS to intensify, Turkey and the United States to form a powerful alliance against the jihadists, Iran to transform from rogue state to Middle East regulator, and energy regional struggle to come back in the headlines, Egypt wanted to demonstrate that it remains in the center of global developments, able to construe that whatever geopolitical shifts occur, Cairo remains a center for decision-making in the Middle East and a power that can share global developments and preserve stability in a highly tumultuous environment. 

The Geopolitics of the Syrian Civil War

International diplomats will gather Jan. 22 in the Swiss town of Montreux to hammer out a settlement designed to end Syria's three-year civil war. The conference, however, will be far removed from the reality on the Syrian battleground. Only days before the conference was scheduled to begin, a controversy threatened to engulf the proceedings after the United Nations invited Iran to participate, and Syrian rebel representatives successfully pushed for the offer to be rescinded. The inability to agree upon even who would be attending the negotiations is an inauspicious sign for a diplomatic effort that was never likely to prove very fruitful.

Quantum Geopolitics

Forecasting the shape the world will take in several years or decades is an audacious undertaking. There are no images to observe or precise data points to anchor us. We can only create a picture, and a fuzzy one at best. This is, after all, our basic human empirical instinct: to draw effortlessly from the vivid imagery of our present world and past experiences while we squint and hesitate before faint, blobby images of the future.

Europe’s geopolitical suffering

Andrea Bonetti

Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori

"Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori is an eminent Italian economist and businessman, a University Professor and a keen observer of the political and economic international situation. During his long career he has held numerous high positions in prestigious Italian and foreign companies. He currently chairs “La Centrale Finanziaria Generale SpA”, the Laboratory Foundation for Public Administration and the Italian delegation of the Abertis Foundation. He is also the honorary president of Huawei Italy, economic adviser to the Chinese giant HNA Group, Khashoggi Holding’s advisor and holder of important professorships at prestigious universities such as Yeshiva University in New York, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and The Peking University.

The Perils of the Pursuit of Geopolitical Interest

How have the geopolitical interests of various stakeholders changed since the start of the Arab Spring, both within the Middle East and beyond? According to Lina Khatib, they’ve changed very little. Promoting security, stability and economic development continues to trump democracy and reform – to the detriment of the wider region.

More than four years after the 2011 Arab uprisings, the geopolitical considerations of major countries inside and outside the region appear to remain largely within the familiar parameters of security, stability and economic interests, as opposed to those of democracy and reform. The strategies followed by some states as they pursue those security and economic goals have often remained constant, as in the cases of France, Germany, the United Kingdom (UK), and China. But other countries, like Turkey and Russia, have shifted some of their tactics following the uprisings with the aim of increasing their geopolitical influence, not only within the region but also, in the case of Russia, in the face of the West. However, the results of both longstanding strategies as well as new tactics have for the main part not been positive, because the focus on security and economic benefits at the expense of reform has contributed either to sustaining autocratic regimes or, ironically, to increasing instability across the Middle East. While this may be beneficial for some countries’ interests in the short term, both autocracy and instability eventually result in the opposite outcome.

What are the geopolitical implications of Greece's euro drama?

 Greek and EU flags are waved at a pro-euro rally in front of the parliament building in Athens on Thursday. Photograph: UPI/Landov/Barcroft Media

The arrival in a week of more than 9,000 refugees in the Greek islands highlights the fact that Greece’s euro drama is being played out in a turbulent neighbourhood. “I have no doubt this will affect Europe, also in a geopolitical sense,” Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, told the European parliament this week.