U.S. intelligence officials: Venezuela could be headed for collapse

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro declared a 60-day state of emergency on May 13, citing what he calls plots from within the country and the U.S. to topple his leftist government. (Reuters)

Venezuela, where clashes erupted this week between security forces and demonstrators protesting food shortages, power blackouts and political gridlock, may be headed toward an all-out popular uprising that could lead to the overthrow of its government this year, senior U.S. intelligence officials said.

US sanctions on Venezuela may strengthen Maduro regime

The US decision to impose sanctions on seven Venezuelan officials earlier this month seems innocuous enough. But the language accompanying the imposition does little to help US objectives, and may strengthen Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian regime.

The effectiveness of sanctions has long been debated. At worst they can act as a useful signaling tool, but as with everything in international relations, timing is vital.

Failed coup diverts attention from Venezuela’s currency devaluation

An alleged coup attempt on the government of Venezuela and following protests has diverted attention from the most drastic economic decision taken by the Maduro administration—liberalizing monetary policy.

On February 11th, the Bolivar was devalued by 69% as it was partially taken off the peg with the U.S. dollar. The new exchange rate, which opened at 170 Bolivares to the dollar, is the third exchange tier in a complex three-tiered controlled currency system. The other two tiers trade at 6.3 and 12 to the dollar. The cheapest rate is still the black market exchange rate, which offers 190 Bolivares to the dollar.

Too Little, Too Late For Venezuela?

Rapidly declining world oil prices, a lack of basic goods in supermarkets, insecurity, and a more united opposition look set to make 2015 the most difficult year yet for Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and the late Hugo Chavez’s Bolivarian Revolution.

Venezuela is in recession and experiencing one of the highest rates of inflation in the world. Its economy contracted by 2.8 percent in 2014, with inflation now running at 64 percent. World oil prices have fallen to below $50 a barrel, with Venezuela hit especially hard due to the lower price its heavy-oil trades at on the world market.

The Good, Bad, and Ugly of Plunging Oil Prices

Crude oil prices plunged to a six-year low Tuesday in a potentially painful threat to oil-exporting nations that rely on crude to power their economies. The drop brings some welcome relief to countries that have been struggling with economic headwinds, but brings a mixed bag for others, like the United States, that are both big producers and consumers of oil.

Oil prices are still looking for a floor, in part because the persistent mismatch between global supply and demand continues even as big oil producers inside OPEC keep spooking the market by refusing to countenance any voluntary production cut. The energy minister for the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, Jan. 13, dismissed the idea that OPEC would cut production to boost prices and said it was up to other oil suppliers, such as the United States, to blink first.

Venezuela's Manchurian President

Much has been written lately about China's growing influence in the developing world, particularly in resource-rich Latin America. While China holds significant sway over many countries, rarely has this influence been as pivotal as in cash-strapped, oil-rich, revolutionary Venezuela.

Nicolás Maduro's First 100 Days

Venezuela's Vice President Nicolas Maduro. 

Has Nicolas Maduro been able to sustain Venezuela's enthusiasm for chavismo in the wake of Hugo Chavez's death? Robert Valencia, writing for World Policy Blog, thinks not. The new Venezuelan president's first 100 days were colored by economic woes and low approval ratings.

By Robert Valencia for World Policy Institute

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After Venezuela’s mid-April presidential elections, a halo of uncertainty hovers around Nicolás Maduro, the man to whom the late Hugo Chávez bestowed the leadership of the Bolivarian Revolution. Maduro’s slim victory—50.66 percent versus 49.07 for opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski— not only signaled a bad omen for the chavismo movement, but it has also put Maduro’s ability to lead both Venezuela and the Leftist movement in Latin America to test. In his first 100 days as president, the Maduro administration shows no signs of improvement, and its political future looks bleak.

With Snowden offer, Venezuela’s Maduro is on world stage

American fugitive Edward Snowden’s diminishing possibilities of remaining free to continue releasing information about secret U.S. surveillance programs increasingly appear to hinge on Venezuela, which awaited word Monday on whether the former National Security Agency contractor would accept its offer of asylum and fly to the oil-rich country.

Ariana Cubillos/AP - Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro speaks during a military promotion ceremony at the 4F military museum in Caracas, Venezuela, Friday, July 5, 2013.

Bolivia and Nicaragua also say they could give refuge to Snowden, who is on the run from American officials and is thought to be marooned in the vast transit zone of Moscow’s Sheremetyevo International Airport. And the president of communist Cuba, Raúl Castro, on Sunday expressed support for Latin American allies that might take in the 30-year-old computer expert, opening the possibility that Snowden could fly through Havana as a first leg on his flight to asylum.

In Venezuelan election, food security _ or lack thereof _ can turn votes

Venezuelans complain that what goes into their Sunday dinner plate comes from abroad: Steak, from Brazil; plantains, the Dominican Republic; rice, South Africa; Parmesan cheese, Uruguay; oats, Chile. Even coffee, in a country famed for it, often is Colombian.

It’s a complaint heard often these days as Hugo Chavez’s hand-picked successor, Nicolas Maduro, seeks election against opposition candidate Henrique Capriles. Under the socialist government, shoppers cannot count on finding sugar, cornmeal for Venezuela’s beloved arepas and other goods when they go to market.

U.S. seeks better relations with Venezuela, but says they may not come soon

The Obama administration is treading carefully in response to the death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, extending an olive branch while warning there may not be any early improvement in relations between the two countries.

Chavez played “an outsized role in that government and therefore his absence” could have “outsized implications,” a senior State Department official said Wednesday.

Venezuela Expels 2 US Diplomats; Vice President Claims Hugo Chavez was Poisoned

After reiterating that President Hugo Chávez's health is looking grave, Venezuela’s vice president lashed out at the country’s “enemies” and expelled two U.S. diplomats whom he accused of spying on the country’s military.

BBC: Chavez illness 'brought on by the enemy

5 March 2013

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez is undergoing his "most difficult hours", his deputy has said.

Nicolas Maduro spoke at length in a speech apparently designed to reassure citizens despite the failing health of Venezuela's leader.

Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez dies

Caracas, Venezuela (CNN) -- Hugo Chavez, the polarizing president of Venezuela who cast himself as a "21st century socialist" and foe of the United States, died Tuesday, said Vice President Nicolas Maduro.

Chavez, who had long battled cancer, was 58.

Venezuela announces widely anticipated currency devaluation

Venezuela’s government announced Friday that is devaluing the country’s currency, a change expected to push up prices in the heavily import-reliant economy.

Officials said the fixed exchange rate is changing from 4.30 bolivars to the dollar to 6.30 bolivars to the dollar.

The devaluation had been widely expected by analysts in recent months. It was the first devaluation to be announced by President Hugo Chavez’s government since 2010.

Venezuela’s Neighbours Walking on Eggshells

Humberto Márquez

CARACAS, Jan 24 2013 (IPS) - Governments of countries in the Americas are relying on the passage of time and a relatively peaceful political atmosphere to sort out the unprecedented institutional situation in Venezuela, whose ailing president Hugo Chávez is out of the country, while the executive team tasked with carrying out his former mandate continues in office.

Turkey confirms Syria's Assad asked Venezuela for asylum

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, left, and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, right, review the honor guards at the Syrian presidential palace, in Damascus, Dyria, on Oct. 21, 2010.(Photo: AP, Hussein Malla)

/ TODAYSZAMAN.COM, İSTANBUL,

Turkey has confirmed that Syria's embattled president Bashar al-Assad has asked Venezuela for asylum for his family as opposition forces continue to make military gains on the ground.