Geopolitics come first, and the bailout deal follows

Egypt's President Sisi inaugurated today the "New Suez Canal" ordering a national celebration that drew the attention of international media. The reason is not that much the Canal itself, but the gathering of a handful of political leaders.

Egypt was looking to build on a new national narrative that would bring back sentiments of pride and a feeling of regional assertiveness for Sisi. In a tough and complex geopolitical environment, with the war against ISIS to intensify, Turkey and the United States to form a powerful alliance against the jihadists, Iran to transform from rogue state to Middle East regulator, and energy regional struggle to come back in the headlines, Egypt wanted to demonstrate that it remains in the center of global developments, able to construe that whatever geopolitical shifts occur, Cairo remains a center for decision-making in the Middle East and a power that can share global developments and preserve stability in a highly tumultuous environment. 

A Ray of Light for Africa’s Dam of Discord

The mounting security concerns that have Egypt poised to send ground troops into Yemen also seem to have pushed Cairo into making nice with Ethiopia after years of tensions over the construction of a massive dam on the Nile River.

Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan reached a preliminary deal this week that could help whisk away the bad blood over Ethiopia’s plans to build the $5 billion Grand Renaissance Dam project. On Wednesday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — who as defense chief in 2013 appeared to threaten to use Egyptian troops to stop the dam’s construction — had a kumbaya moment in his address to the Ethiopian parliament, promising a new era of trust and friendship between the two nations.

A Pan-Arab Military Remains Elusive

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the former head of Egypt's armed forces, has proposed a familiar (but flawed) solution to the region's emerging security problems. In a recorded address released by state media on Sunday, the president appealed for a coordinated regional military response to the rising threat posed by armed groups.

Security has deteriorated across the Sinai Peninsula as a domestic insurgency waged by militant group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis has led to attacks against tourists and Egyptian security forces. The violence has spread from the peninsula to the Nile Delta and other population centers. But it was the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts on Feb. 16, reportedly by Islamic State-affiliated militants in Libya, that spurred al-Sisi's call for not only joint military operations but also a unified Arab military to take on regional pressures.

Putin visits Egypt in bid to expand influence, arms deals

Russian President Vladimir Putin was slated visit Egypt on Monday as Moscow looks to 

expand its reach in the Arab world’s most populous country at a time when Cairo-Washington 

ties remain frayed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, shakes hands with Egypt's Military chief 

Field Marshal Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow 

on Thursday, Feb. 13, 2014. (Photo credit: AP Photo/RIA Novosti, Mikhail Metzel, Presidential Press Service)

His two-day trip will be Putin’s first in a decade to Egypt and comes after a 2011 popular 

uprising that ousted ex-strongman Hosni Mubarak, who the Russian leader met in his previous 

visit in 2005.

El-Sissi’s coming victory is bad news for Muslim Brotherhood

One wish, one man… El-Sissi for Egypt’s presidency,” read the campaign placards throughout 

the streets of Cairo in advance of the elections that will take place in two and a half week.

Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, left, visits a polling site in the Heliopolis neighborhood of Cairo, Egypt, on the first day of 

voting in the constitutional referendum, on Jan 14, 2014 (photo credit: AP/Egyptian Defense Ministry via Facebook/File)

The stirring posters bear a picture of Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, 60, the man behind the last 

revolution in Egypt — in June 2013. He’s in civilian dress instead of his military uniform, 

wearing the sunglasses that have become his trademark.

The drifting sands of terror in Egypt

If , for a moment, the commanders of Egypt’s security forces had been inclined to pat 

themselves on the back in light of the decline in terror attacks in the Sinai, the string of blasts 

that rocked Cairo on Friday morning exposed the grim reality: the terror that hit the peninsula 

has not abated, but rather drifted westward and southward, to Cairo and other cities in 

mainland Egypt.

An Egyptian street vendor sells masks of Defense Minister General Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi in Cairo, 

January 15, 2014 (photo credit: Khaled Desouki/AFP)

Between July and December 2013, there was a sharp and dramatic decline in the number of 

attacks against the Egyptian military in the Sinai. Six months ago, the number of shooting 

attacks averaged about 100 per month. In December, on the other hand, the number could be 

counted on one hand.

Qatar's interference in Egypt's internal affairs

Without a doubt Qatar has become a dynamic player in the Arab world. Maintaining warm relations with important actors such as Russia, Europe and even Iran it has succeeded in mediating in Arab conflicts (Lebanon, Sudan, Yemen and Palestine) and making its voice heard.

Influence of moneyed elites rebounds in Egypt

The plush Cairo offices of Egypt’s official investment authority were alive one recent morning with what authorities here say is the activity of an economy on the mend.

A wealthy Kuwaiti businessman had been whisked in with his entourage to announce plans to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Egypt’s tourism and agriculture sectors.

A new symbol for rebellion. In Egypt, Posting This Symbol On Facebook Can Now Get You 5 Years In Prison

Egyptian athletes expected to compete in the Olympics are also banned from flashing the four-fingered symbol, according to the country's sports minister.

Egypt's Sinai Peninsula and Security

Introduction

Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, envisioned by the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli treaty as a buffer zone to build trust and ensure peace, has become a haven for transnational crime and Islamist militancy. Poverty and political alienation among the region's native Bedouins, combined with political dislocations since former president Hosni Mubarak's government was toppled in 2011, have allowed nonstate armed groups to thrive, posing new threats to global trade and the peace on the Egypt-Israel border. After the Egyptian military reasserted its authority in July 2013 and cracked down on Islamists nationwide, militant groups escalated their attacks on peninsular security forces and expanded their reach to cities along the Suez Canal and even Cairo.

Gas remains divisive issue in Mediterranean region

A man looks as the world's then-biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker Duhail crosses through the Suez Canal, April 1, 2008.  (photo by REUTERS/Stringer)

 In 2012, the Damietta gas field sparked a public debate in the region. The regime of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, however, kept its silence and did not claim Egypt's right to this field that was piled up historically due to a large submerged seamount off the coast of Alexandria. Afterward, the subject was strongly highlighted by the Egyptian media, but ousted President Mohammed Morsi’s regime kept denying the existence of this field, a true national treasure.

Egypt to buy Israeli gas via Greek Cyprus

A report has revealed that Egypt may be looking to purchase Israel natural gas via Greek Cyprus in return for Israeli use of an Egyptian liquification plant.

A report has raised new questions as to the reason for the ousting of the elected Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi on July 3.

According to the report, it is likely that the decision to oust Morsi was made over his refusal to honor agreements made with Israel during the reign of his predecessor Hosni Mubarak, and refusal to work with Israel in regards to natural gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean’s Levant Basin.

Europe's struggle for influence in Egypt

Egypt tests Europe’s ability to influence events in its southern neighbourhood. In January 2011, the protestors in Tahrir Square brought down President Mubarak, despite lukewarm support from Western countries. After Mubarak’s removal from power, the EU adopted a new policy based on the ‘more for more’ principle; the more a country enacts democratic reforms, the more EU aid it can expect. In November 2012, after the elections that led to Mohamed Morsi’s brief presidency, the European Union announced a package of grants and loans totalling nearly €4.2 billion. The following week President Morsi announced his autocratic grab for Egypt’s constitutional powers. When European officials complained about the violation of religious or women’s rights in Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood officials would retort by pointing at rising Islamophobia in Europe. Now, in spite of intense American and European diplomatic pressure, the interim government has used disproportionate force to disperse the pro-Morsi sit-ins, killing more than 800. A cycle of violence has ensued as dozens of policemen and security officers have been killed in response. Egypt now balances on the precipice of further violent conflict.

 Europe’s diplomatic relations with Morsi’s government were troubled, but things are no easier now. The liberals and the moderates in the current government  ‒ those that the EU and Washington considered allies  ‒  have either been co-opted or outflanked by the hardliners. Prime minister Hazem el-Beblawi, a liberal economist, supported the crackdown against the sit-ins and has suggested the Muslim Brotherhood’s licence to operate as a political party could be revoked. Another moderate and key interlocutor of the West, Mohamed ElBaradei, is no longer influential after he resigned in protest at the violence and even faces legal charges over that decision. Meanwhile, Tamarod, a grass roots protest movement which appeared to share Western values, is becoming more nationalist and has called for tearing up Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel and an end to American military aid. 

Other Nations Offer a Lesson to Egypt’s Military Leaders

Is the era of the military big man back? In Egypt, where Gen. Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi led a populist putsch against the elected president, prison doors are swinging.

Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood leader and freshly ousted president, languishes in one jail cell, while Hosni Mubarak, the despised autocrat who led Egypt for 30 years, has just been released from another.

Ten Reasons Why Egypt is Vital to the US Economy and Security

A Pew poll shows that far fewer Americans are following events in Egypt closely now than in January-February 2011. Actually, about the same percentage are following it “fairly closely” as then (a quarter now versus 31% in 2011). The big fall-off is in people following events on the Nile “very closely,” which are only 15% nowadays. I think this outcome in part derives from corporate news executives’ calculation that there was far more advertising money to be made from the Zimmerman trial than from events in Cairo, which are much more expensive and much more difficult to cover.

What Egypt Can Learn From Iraq, and Vice Versa

While arguing over the merits of continuing U.S. aid to Egypt, commentators and analysts tend to agree on two main points. First, there is a general consensus on what President Mohamed Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood got wrong. Second, virtually all Western observers are stressing the need for an inclusive government in Egypt. In the first point, Egypt offers a lesson to Iraq and, in the second, Iraq offers a lesson to Egypt. Together, they point to the direction U.S. policy should take.

Events in Egypt show that majoritarian democracy doesn’t work in transitional societies. Even when a party has won a commanding electoral victory -- which wasn’t the case in Egypt -- it must still seek continued legitimacy by addressing the needs and desires of those outside its direct constituency. Because of the weakness of other institutions in transitional societies, a strict majoritarian democracy is likely to leave certain populations more powerless than they would be in mature democracies. And political alienation breeds discontent and impatience, as we saw on Egypt’s streets last week.

Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg

Mursi governed Egypt as if his slim electoral victory gave him a mandate to transform the country into the state that the Muslim Brotherhood envisioned, regardless of the wishes of the rest of Egyptians. Rather than seeking to build a national consensus for Egypt’s path, he dismissed the opposition as powerless, and invested his energy in co-opting or marginalizing the security establishment and the judiciary -- Egypt’s two other bases of political power. His naked assertion of power at the end of last year to force through an Islamist constitution was, for many Egyptians, the last straw. Although the specific mode of Mursi’s downfall -- a military coup ushered in by popular protests -- surprised many, the end of Egyptian tolerance for Mursi shocked few.

Egypt welcomes U.S. remarks on Mursi; food stocks dwindle

(Reuters) - Egypt's interim rulers welcomed on Thursday remarks from the U.S. State department describing the rule of toppled leader Mohamed Mursi as undemocratic, clearly hoping they signaled Washington would not cut off its $1.5 billion in annual aid.

Not quite a coup, but pretty much

As I sat down for my interview with the journalist to discuss the protests of June 30, I told him, "You realize by the time we're done, half of this is probably going to be irrelevant and outdated, right?" It turns out I was right -- because within those few minutes, the Egyptian Defense Minister, General el-Sissi issued an ultimatum. The official text was quite clear: it was a message for all parties in Egypt to address their differences, and respond to the "will of the people" within 48 hours. Within a few minutes, I received a message from a senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood -- and it was a fairly short one. "We have a coup." Not quite -- but he may yet turn out to be right.

In Egypt, gripes about U.S. government are a common theme

There is little that the angry supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood have in common with the secular, liberal revelers in Tahrir Square these days — except for one thing.

View Photo Gallery — Egypt in turmoil: A Morsi supporter gestures on Tuesday at soldiers outside the Republican Guard headquarters in Cairo, where the supporters believe Morsi is being held.

They both believe the U.S. government is conspiring against them.

Brotherhood Says U.S. Diplomats Urged It to Accept Ouster of Morsi

CAIRO — As the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies vowed to broaden their protests against the president’s ouster and their opponents held enormous counterdemonstrations, American diplomats sought to persuade the Islamist group to accept his overthrow, its officials said.