Forget Sykes-Picot. It’s the Treaty of Sèvres That Explains the Modern Middle East.

Ninety-five years ago today, European diplomats gathered at a porcelain factory in the Paris suburb of Sèvres and signed a treaty to remake the Middle East from the ashes of the Ottoman empire. The plan collapsed so quickly we barely remember it anymore, but the short-lived Treaty of Sèvres, no less than the endlessly discussed Sykes-Picotagreement, had consequences that can still be seen today. We might do well to consider a few of them as the anniversary of this forgotten treaty quietly passes by.

The War for Islam

Since the Iraq War, sectarian conflict between Shiites and Sunnis has emerged as a major fissure in Middle East politics — fueling conflicts in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen; a resurgence of extremism and the scourge of the Islamic State; and an escalation in tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia which has become the most significant clash between regional rivals in decades. From country to country, across the region, sectarian conflict is the thread that runs through each crisis, tying them into a strategic Gordian knot.

Breaking down the Middle East’s sectarian tensions

The impact of rising Saudi-Iran tension has serious repercussions for peace talks. However, simple-minded sectarianism isn’t always so clear-cut when considering the region’s complex conflicts.

One of the messages that reverberated throughout the Iranian Revolution of 1979 was the desire to end sectarianism. The rallying cry of “La Sunniya, la Shia, wahda wahda Islamiya” (no Sunnis, no Shias, only Islamic unity) was shouted by the masses of Iranian demonstrators as they sought to topple the secular-orientated monarchy of Shah Pahlavi. The goal of shaking off political repression in a new era of freedom and justice forged through Islamic unity did not seem distant to Iran’s citizens.

The Next Front in the Saudi-Iran War

It looks like 2016 was born in violence. Saudi Arabia’s execution of popular Saudi Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr has led to an escalation with its regional nemesis, Iran. After Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Tehran was sacked by an angry Iranian mob, Riyadh severed diplomatic ties with the country and organized a regional coalition of countries to isolate it further — Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Djibouti, and Sudan have all cut or downgraded diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic in the incident’s aftermath. Iran accused Saudi Arabia of going even further Thursday, claiming that Saudi warplanes had launched airstrikes against its embassy in war-torn Yemen.

Russian Nuclear Diplomacy in the Middle East

Israel cannot ignore the procurement of advanced Russian weapons systems by its neighbors, or their accelerated entry into the nuclear field; these plans are liable to serve as a basis for obtaining greater know-how and as a cover for building nuclear weapons capability, certainly if the transfer of know-how includes enrichment capability. For its part, Russia is being careful to maintain positive relations with Israel, which it regards as an important regional player. Israel also regards Russia as a key player in the region, and the two countries are coordinating their moves in order to prevent a clash between their military forces in Syrian territory. At the same time, Israel expects Russia to take its security interests into consideration. The two countries seemingly are willing to engage in dialogue that will address their spheres of interest, but it is doubtful whether Israel will be able to convince Russia in its agreements with the countries in the region seeking nuclear reactors to include restrictive clauses. Furthermore, even if Israel is able to influence Moscow to some extent, it is highly doubtful whether some of these countries, which have hitherto rejected American demands that they accept conditions and restrictions, will accept such demands from Russia.

Is this really our conflict?

There isn’t one war, the West versus Isis. Not even after last month’s terrorist attacks in Paris. There are layers of Middle Eastern conflicts, all linked to international intervention, of which the most intractable are heightened by the Sunni-Shia divide.

The Iranian revolution of 1979 established the world’s first officially Islamic regime, but being exclusively Shia, it resurrected memories of the age-old conflict between Sunni and Shia. On coming to power, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini demanded that the Muslim holy sites of Mecca and Medina be managed collectively. In Saudi Arabia this demand was seen as an intolerable challenge. (A young Sunni jihadist, Khaled Kelkal, involved in bombings in France in 1995, said he thought “Shiism was invented by the Jews to divide Islam” (1).) Violence against Shia by Saudi Wahhabis is nothing new: in 1802 the sack of Karbala (now in Iraq) led to the destruction of Shia shrines and tombs including that of the Prophet’s son-in-law Hussein, and the killing of many of the city’s inhabitants.

The Middle East in 2015 Is a Lot Like Europe in 1914

Watching the events cascading in Syria makes it eerily easy to see how the political elites of 1914 stumbled into World War I while believing they were pursuing a sensible set of national interests.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and US President Barack Obama. In the background, German Red Cross paramedics and a burned Sanitaetswagen, or ambulance, on a World War I battlefield, between 1914 and 1918.

Photo illustration by Juliana Jiménez. Photos by DRK/ullstein bild via Getty Images and Jewel Samad/AFP/Getty Images

The parallels are far from precise. The alliances bonding the players in today’s Middle East aren’t as interlocking as those in early 20th-century Europe. The war-mobilizing machinery isn’t as rigid. And, of course, today’s leaders have the precautionary example of World War I to rivet their attention: They know the pitfalls of escalation and the tragic consequences of unbounded warfare—though people don’t always heed the lessons of the past.

It’s Time for the United States to Start Worrying About a Saudi Collapse

As if there weren’t already enough problems to worry about in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia might be headed for trouble. From plummeting oil prices to foreign-policy missteps to growing tensions with Iran, a confluence of recent events is mounting to pose some serious challenges for the Saudi regime. If not properly managed, these events could eventually coalesce into a perfect storm that significantly increases the risk of instability within the kingdom, with untold consequences for global oil markets and security in the Middle East.

Iran Deal May Redefine The Middle East

One month after the Iran nuclear deal was concluded, the Middle East is still reeling from profound shock. Long and well established alliances have led to bewildering changes, not only in the Mideast, but across the world.

The stark difference is nowhere more strikingly revealed than in the media reports on the recent Iran nuclear deal. In a recent article on the front page of the Tehran Times, the author compared President Lincoln’s battle with a recalcitrant Congress for the passage of the 13th Amendment with Obama’s struggle with the Congressional leadership and hardliners for passage of the Iran nuke deal.

The Conflict in Yemen: A Case Study of Iran’s Limited Power

The nuclear agreement with Iran has sparked much concern about the financial resources Iran will have at its disposal once the sanctions are lifted. Most experts agree that the agreement has not prompted Iran to change its fundamental political or ideological approach and that it will continue to support its regional proxies, try to expand its sphere of influence in the Middle East, oppose the influence of the United States and the West in the region, and continue to show extreme hostility toward Israel. Presumably, then, Iran will use its newfound resources to promote these aims. Nonetheless, the case of Yemen shows that the forces opposing Iran – the Sunni coalition, the US and its allies, and even Israel – have the tools to confront the possible ramifications of the nuclear agreement. These reasons make it important to maintain an ongoing, in-depth dialogue about cooperation and coordination to contain Iran and limit its influence. 

7 Middle East crises that are a bigger problem than Iran’s nuclear program

The Obama administration secured vital support for the Iran deal this week, after it emerged that at least 42 senators endorsed the proposed agreement, announced in July in Vienna at a summit between Iran and world powers. The White House likely won't have to veto a congressional bill aimed against it, meaning the pact's smooth passage is now more or less a fait accompli.

An undated image allegedly shows smoke billowing from the Baal Shamin temple in Syria's ancient city of Palmyra going up in a plume of smoke. (Welayat Homs/AFP)

That, of course, doesn't mean the rancorous debate over the rights and wrongs of the deal will end. The threat of Tehran's nuclear program has seemingly sucked up all the foreign policy oxygen in Washington in recent months and will stalk the election campaign in the months ahead, beginning with a Donald Trump-Ted Cruz rally on Wednesday in the capital.

A Net Assessment of the Middle East

The term "Middle East" has become enormously elastic. The name originated with the British Foreign Office in the 19th century. The British divided the region into the Near East, the area closest to the United Kingdom and most of North Africa; the Far East, which was east of British India; and the Middle East, which was between British India and the Near East. It was a useful model for organizing the British Foreign Office and important for the region as well, since the British — and to a lesser extent the French — defined not only the names of the region but also the states that emerged in the Near and Far East.

Today, the term Middle East, to the extent that it means anything, refers to the Muslim-dominated countries west of Afghanistan and along the North African shore. With the exception of Turkey and Iran, the region is predominantly Arab and predominantly Muslim. Within this region, the British created political entities that were modeled on European nation-states. The British shaped the Arabian Peninsula, which had been inhabited by tribes forming complex coalitions, into Saudi Arabia, a state based on one of these tribes, the Sauds. The British also created Iraq and crafted Egypt into a united monarchy. Quite independent of the British, Turkey and Iran shaped themselves into secular nation-states.

The Middle Eastern Balance of Power Matures

Last week, a coalition of predominantly Sunni Arab countries, primarily from the Arabian Peninsula and organized by Saudi Arabia, launched airstrikes in Yemen that have continued into this week. The airstrikes target Yemeni al-Houthis, a Shiite sect supported by Iran, and their Sunni partners, which include the majority of military forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. What made the strikes particularly interesting was what was lacking: U.S. aircraft. Although the United States provided intelligence and other support, it was a coalition of Arab states that launched the extended air campaign against the al-Houthis.

Middle East OPEC Oil Rig Count Jumps 14%

As if to rub salt in the wounds of the US shale industry, Middle East OPEC oil rig count has jumped by 19 rigs to 155 units in February 2015 setting a new rig count record for the region. Since 2005 the supergiant oil fields of the region developed symptoms of mortality and increased drilling has been required to combat natural production declines in order to maintain production at static levels. 

A Middle Eastern Balance of Power Emerges

The battle lines of the Middle East are changing. The chaotic force of the Islamic State has pushed the region's major powers — Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran — to rethink decades-old relationships and regional strategies. Nowhere is this more apparent than the Syrian-Iraqi battleground, where a sectarian proxy battle has been the incubator for an emerging balance of power. Though it may look messy on the surface, this dynamic falls in line with the United States' long-term strategy for the region.

Many have criticized Washington's decision not to take a more direct role in containing the violence in Syria or to rely on local forces to combat the Islamic State in Iraq. But the United States' global geopolitical imperatives necessitate a balance of power in the Middle East in which regional actors shoulder more of the burden of managing their problems. Washington's refusal to be dragged back into another ground war in the Middle East is slowly bearing fruit, as Turkey is cautiously re-entering its former sphere of influence along its southern flank, counterbalancing the Saudi-Iranian competition that has fueled much of the violence destabilizing the Middle East.

A Pan-Arab Military Remains Elusive

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the former head of Egypt's armed forces, has proposed a familiar (but flawed) solution to the region's emerging security problems. In a recorded address released by state media on Sunday, the president appealed for a coordinated regional military response to the rising threat posed by armed groups.

Security has deteriorated across the Sinai Peninsula as a domestic insurgency waged by militant group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis has led to attacks against tourists and Egyptian security forces. The violence has spread from the peninsula to the Nile Delta and other population centers. But it was the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts on Feb. 16, reportedly by Islamic State-affiliated militants in Libya, that spurred al-Sisi's call for not only joint military operations but also a unified Arab military to take on regional pressures.

From the Welfare State to the Caliphate

When he was 3 years old, Ahmed arrived in southern Sweden from Iraq, together with his older brother and parents. The family settled in one of their new country’s cut-off suburbs, where its many new immigrants come to live, but mostly to be forgotten.

The family found a home in one of the many rows of gray, faceless apartment buildings that make up these deeply segregated suburbs that ring Sweden’s urban centers — in Angered, outside Gothenburg. As he grew into his teenage years, Ahmed began to scold his siblings to be more religious. He spent considerable time in front of his computer, becoming engrossed in graphic, violent videos from the civil war in Syria. Inspired, he read the biographies of martyrs who had died in battle, waging jihad in the holy land. And gradually he turned inward, withdrawing from society and his former life.

Booming business for black market weapons dealers in Iraq and Syria

As war continues to rage in Iraq and Syria, the demand for guns and ammunition has skyrocketed. Weapons dealers have capitalized on rising prices and are making a hefty profit.

As the security situation in Iraq and Syria continues to deteriorate, the underground weapons trade business is booming.

No easy choices: Realpolitik in Mesopotamia

US president Barack Obama is leading an international effort to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, known as ISIS or ISIL, which has occupied large swathes of Syria and Iraq. The US has attacked the terrorist group in both countries; it will also train Iraqi Sunni forces, and support Syria’s moderate opposition. Success, however, could depend on the ability of the West and its Arab allies to co-operate – at least informally – with Damascus and Tehran.



ISIS poses a threat to Europe. The group has promised that some of the approximately 2,500 European fighters in its ranks will return to attack European targets. A number of ISIS-inspired plots in Europe have already been foiled. In July, eight EU states agreed to share intelligence and co-operate to apprehend returning fighters, and to stop ISIS from recruiting in European cities. At the European Council meeting in October, the remaining 20 member-states should also sign up.

Obama’s grand plan for Middle East comes unhinged

Five years after pledging to remake the U.S. relationship with the broader Middle East and 

improve America’s image in the Muslim world, the Obama administration’s regional strategy 

appears to have come unhinged.

President Barack Obama shakes hands with Afghan President Hamid Karzai at the end of a news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington in January 2013 (photo credit: AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, File)

President Barack Obama has been confronted by fast-moving and ominous developments 

from Afghanistan to Tunisia, amid a bitter public power struggle between Iran and Saudi 

Arabia, and has adjusted his first term’s grand plan to restore Washington’s standing and 

influence.