Russia Launches Naval Exercises in Black Sea Amid Escalating Standoff with Ukraine

One day after Russia accused Ukraine of attempted incursions across the de facto border into Crimea, the territory annexed by Moscow in 2014, Kiev put its military on high alert and the Kremlin announced the start of war games in the Black Sea, raising fnars of a return to open war in the country for the first time in more than a year.

Social risk: An underexposed source of disruption

Social risk is real.  It impacts our lives daily but often goes unnoticed. It is often attributed to globalisation, climate change, pandemics, migration, and social media. However, these phenomena only increase its likelihood. A guest post by ENODO Global, Inc.

Social risk is found within a population’s underlying tensions and its struggle to acquire basic needs. When grievances and needs are not addressed, social risk increases and seemingly “insignificant” events can trigger protest, strikes, litigation, looting, work stoppages, and violence. Social risk is amplified by communications technologies that enable angry citizens, communities, activist groups, political movements, and terrorist groups to take advantage of identity, fear, and anger to achieve their agendas.

Africa’s Hottest Frozen Border Boils Over

Some events come out of the blue, as surprising as thunderbolts. Others feel like confirmations of dour predictions, as grindingly inevitable as winter’s onset. The outbreak of heavy fighting between Eritrean and Ethiopian troops on their mutual border on June 12, which is reported to have left hundreds dead, falls into the latter category. No one should be surprised. And some mea culpas are in order.

Ambiguity plagues the Shangri-La Dialogue

South China Sea tensions played a prominent role in discussions at the just-concluded Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore. However, ambiguity on several issues raised, whether deliberate or otherwise, has the potential to prolong these very same tensions.

ISIS feeds on Iraq’s political instability and oil

For 15 years, Iraq has been under constant media attention. From the suspicions of hidden weapons of mass destruction to the high level violence of the Islamic State (ISIS), a lot has been said on what is happening in Iraq, why it is happening, and how it got there. However, since 2014, the increase in opinions, debates, and experts on terrorism has only contributed to a lack of meaning.

Iraq has been in a constant state of political chaos, of which the 2003 US-led intervention was the starting point. Driven by the idea of American idealism and transforming the intervention into an ideological war, the US goal behind the invasion of Iraq was to establish democracy in the Middle East. But at what price for Iraq?

Putin’s hydra: Inside Russia’s intelligence services

Far from being an all-powerful “spookocracy” that controls the Kremlin, Russia’s intelligence services are internally divided, distracted by bureaucratic turf wars, and often produce poor quality intelligence – ultimately threatening the interests of Vladimir Putin himself.

Drawing on extensive interviews with former and current intelligence officials, “Putin’s hydra: Inside Russia’s intelligence services” explains how the spy agencies really work, and argues that Europe’s view of them is patchy and based on outdated caricatures.

Kashmir’s Reemerging Militancy: After years of setbacks, a new kind of militancy is taking shape.

For the first time in more than two decades, public support for militants fighting the Indian state is rising and being articulated in the open in the Kashmir Valley. Militants are hero-worshipped and massive crowds are participating in their funerals.

Image Credit: REUTERS/Fayaz Kabli

At a recent local cricket tournament at Tral in south Kashmir, three of the 16 teams – the Burhan Lions, Aabid Khan Qalandars and Khalid Aryans – bore the names of suspected Hizbul Mujahideen militants. The Burhan Lions for instance draw their name from 21-year-old Burhan Muzaffar Wani, the hugely popular poster boy of the militancy in Kashmir today.

Forget Sykes-Picot. It’s the Treaty of Sèvres That Explains the Modern Middle East.

Ninety-five years ago today, European diplomats gathered at a porcelain factory in the Paris suburb of Sèvres and signed a treaty to remake the Middle East from the ashes of the Ottoman empire. The plan collapsed so quickly we barely remember it anymore, but the short-lived Treaty of Sèvres, no less than the endlessly discussed Sykes-Picotagreement, had consequences that can still be seen today. We might do well to consider a few of them as the anniversary of this forgotten treaty quietly passes by.

Syrian War Update: Risks Growing for Southern Turkey

A recent bombing in Gaziantep, Turkey underscores the current elevated threat posed by the Islamic State to the nation’s southern border provinces. Security is unlikely to improve given the ongoing conflict in the northern Aleppo region.

Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, Turkey has increasingly been entangled in the devastating war of its southern neighbor. Ankara is actively supporting several insurgent factions opposed to the Syrian government as well as to Kurdish forces and other radical Islamist militants. Since July 2015, the conflict became an integral part of Turkey’s internal security environment as Islamic State militants carried out several high-profile attacks in Suruc, Ankara, and Istanbul.

Brussels Attacks: Unresolved Issues

Nothing has changed in EU's security policy since  Paris attacks occurred five months earlier. Even worse, the approach the international community has adopted with respect to security and terrorism has not addressed the roots of the problem nor endeavored to foster a productive debate.

Brussels and Paris are only two among many other places around the world that have been hit by terrorist attacks. From Yemen and Afghanistan to Tunisia, Ankara and Beirut, thousands of people have died. Before and after the rise of ISIS in the Middle East, the major problem of the EU and the United States is the lack of strong cooperation between the national secret agencies and the continuous undermining of education and religious dialogue towards decreasing the powerful effect of extremism and hatred.    

The Rotten Heart of Europe: The rampant dysfunction in Belgium puts us all in danger.

Four days after Belgian police captured suspected Paris attacker Salah Abdeslam in Brussels –triggering a round of congratulatory news conferences in which French President François Hollande deemed the arrest “an important moment” in the fight against Islamist extremism — terror struck the Belgian capital. The Islamic State has claimed another hit on West European soil and here we go again: the gut-wrenching images of panicked people fleeing attack sites, the crushing stories of pain and loss, the displays of solidarity on social media and public buildings across the world, and, once again, the grief, shock, and panic.

Ankara bombing raises questions over Turkey’s stability

The March 13th bombing in Ankara is the third terrorist attack that hit the capital in a six-month period. The blast is a strong indicator for both the elevated terrorist threat Turkey currently faces, as well as the potential risks the country may face in the future.

In less than a month the Turkish capital was hit by two major terrorist attacks. On February 17th, a militant linked to the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) detonated a suicide car-bomb in the centre of Ankara. The blast targeted a military convoy and left 29 dead.

How Much of Libya Does the Islamic State Control?

The world is waking up to the threat posed by the Islamic State’s expansion in Libya over the past year. The renewed Western focus on combating the group is related to the Nov. 13 Paris attacks — although they had nothing to do with Libya — and the increasing recognition that the U.N.-brokered Libyan Political Agreement signed on Dec. 17 is, for the moment at least, unimplementable. Therefore, a national unity government able to take on the Islamic State will not be in place any time soon. But the urge to act, or to be seen acting, against the Islamic State should not be a reason to embark on a new large-scale military adventure in Libya — one that would have unpredictable results and likely worsen the situation on the ground by making the Libyan conflict harder to resolve.

NO DENIAL: HOW NATO CAN DETER A CREEPING RUSSIAN THREAT

Russia’s Vladimir Putin disregards arms control agreements, places sophisticated weapons close to NATO’s borders, and deliberately sows uncertainty over his intentions. He is creating no-go areas in parts of Eastern Europe, making NATO allies nervous and challenging Europe’s security order. But NATO can still deter him.

Nigeria Is Coming Apart at the Seams

Crowds of Igbo-speaking people barricade streets across southeastern Nigeria, bringing traffic to a standstill. They wave black, green, and red secessionist flags; distribute their own currency and passports; and demand the creation of a new independent country called Biafra. It could be 1967 — or 2016.

If Russia Started a War in the Baltics, NATO Would Lose — Quickly

If  Russian tanks and troops rolled into the Baltics tomorrow, outgunned and outnumbered NATO forces would be overrun in under three days. That’s the sobering conclusion of war games carried out by a think tank with American military officers and civilian officials.

“The games’ findings are unambiguous: As currently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members,” said a report by the Rand Corp., which led the war gaming research.

Yemen’s civil war risks southern secession

Yemen’s ongoing civil war is often represented as being purely about control over the country. However, due to historical grievances, much of the South would prefer outright secession. As the war drags on, these secessionists are likely to gain influence, and could cause a return to the pre-1990 world of two Yemens.

Given the failure of this summer’s ceasefire, it seems likely that the current conflict in Yemen will continue for the foreseeable future.

New Realities, Old Fears: Escalation on the Korean Peninsula

Alliance tensions over abandonment and entrapment fears come sharply into focus at times of conflict escalation or the possibility of escalation. Therefore, understanding escalation dynamics and the processes for de-escalation and the restoration of deterrence is an important aspect of U.S.-ROK alliance management. The DPRK’s recent nuclear test, SLBM ejection tests, and advancements in other asymmetric capabilities such as cyber-warfare make escalation management more complicated and difficult for the alliance.

Image Credit: The White House

Before examining escalation problems in the current context of the DPRK’s growing asymmetric threats, it is helpful to understand the historical lessons of past escalation episodes and how they affected fears of abandonment and entrapment over time.

Russia, Japan and North Korea’s Nuclear Test

On January 6, 2016, North Korea’s state media announced that the DPRK had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. North Korea’s nuclear test resulted in a predictable array of international condemnations, but Russia’s harsh response to the DPRK’s belligerent action was especially intriguing.

Image Credit: Presidential Press and Information Office, Kremlin

Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Vladimir Voronkov described North Korea’s nuclear test as a clear violation of international law and a national security threat. Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, the head of the Russian State Duma’s defense committee echoed Voronkov’s statement, calling North Korea’s nuclear test “frightening” and urging the international community to contain the DPRK’s growing nuclear potential. Following from this rhetoric, Russian diplomats have engaged with their counterparts in the United States, Japan and South Korea. Russia has also not ruled out supporting tougher international sanctions against Kim Jong-un’s regime.

Missing the Peace for the Trees

It has been more than a decade since warring parties signed a deal to end Liberia’s bloody conflict. Fueled by the pillaging of the country’s rich natural resources — diamonds, gold, iron, and timber — the two civil wars that raged across 14 years left more than 250,000 people dead and displaced more than 1 million others. When the final peace deal was signed in 2003, however, the resources that had sustained the war for so long were not mentioned at all. The oversight, though common, has often proved disastrous for countries trying to break free from years of violence.