Steel and sea issues dominate U.S.-China dialogue

The recent Strategic and Economic Dialogue highlighted the importance of steel production and the South China Sea in U.S.-China relations.

Between 6-7 June, the U.S. and China were engaged in the 8th Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED). The meeting, established by President Obama and former Chinese president Hu Jintao in 2009, has notoriously failed to result in agreements. As a consequence, the forum is widely considered consultative, at best.

Ambiguity plagues the Shangri-La Dialogue

South China Sea tensions played a prominent role in discussions at the just-concluded Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore. However, ambiguity on several issues raised, whether deliberate or otherwise, has the potential to prolong these very same tensions.

New Realities, Old Fears: Escalation on the Korean Peninsula

Alliance tensions over abandonment and entrapment fears come sharply into focus at times of conflict escalation or the possibility of escalation. Therefore, understanding escalation dynamics and the processes for de-escalation and the restoration of deterrence is an important aspect of U.S.-ROK alliance management. The DPRK’s recent nuclear test, SLBM ejection tests, and advancements in other asymmetric capabilities such as cyber-warfare make escalation management more complicated and difficult for the alliance.

Image Credit: The White House

Before examining escalation problems in the current context of the DPRK’s growing asymmetric threats, it is helpful to understand the historical lessons of past escalation episodes and how they affected fears of abandonment and entrapment over time.

Oil Companies Shun South Chinese Sea As Geopolitical Tensions Rise

The South China Sea is continually paraded as a region rich in oil and gas deposits; however, no one really knows what’s there with any degree of accuracy. Furthermore, these possible deposits are shrouded in conflict that will not abate anytime soon, and will most likely worsen with an intensification of the security competition between China and the United States along with its regional allies, which is tightly related to these disputes.

The available exploration information in the South China Sea is either limited or old. So, there are assumptions, but evidence is shaky. The EIA estimates there may be nearly 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proved and probable reserves all based on 2013 estimates and of course, 2013 prices. Not only were these reserves thought to be somewhat inflated at the time, but given the lower pricing currently available, this is potentially far less.

Anti-Submarine Operations in the Indian Ocean

Malabar 2012

Image Credit: Official U.S. Navy Page

As India and Australia prepare to embark on their first-ever bilateral naval interaction in the Bay of Bengal this month, reports suggest the exercises will focus on anti-submarine warfare (ASW). This is being seen as evidence of a growing regional consensus on the threat posed by Chinese undersea operations in the Asian littorals. Australia is reported to be sending a Lockheed Martin’s P-3 anti-submarine reconnaissance aircraft, a Collins-class submarine, and ASW frigates, while India will be deploying a P-8 long-range anti-submarine aircraft, along with other surface assets.

Southeast Asia: The new piracy capital

Southeast Asia has recently regained the reputation as the world’s worst region for piracy. With one third of world shipping going through the regions’ waters, the costs to trade and shipping are likely to be extensive.   

According to a recent report from the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and International Maritime Bureau (IMB), since the start of 2015, Southeast Asia has accounted for 55 per cent of the world’s 54 piracy and armed robbery incidents. According to these statistics, Southeast Asia has regained the reputation as the region in the world most afflicted by piracy.