Geopolitical Journey, Part 2: Borderlands

Stratfor's George Friedman is continuing his trip this week across the region, including the countries of Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Serbia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. This report on the same region was written in 2010, as he was returning from a similar journey that explored the geopolitical imperatives of those nations. The observations and forecasts then in many ways mirror the reality today, four years later.

A borderland is a region where history is constant: Everything is in flux. The countries we are visiting on this trip (Turkey, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine and Poland) occupy the borderland between Islam, Catholicism and Orthodox Christianity. Roman Catholic Hapsburg Austria struggled with the Islamic Ottoman Empire for centuries, with the Ottomans extending northwest until a climactic battle in Vienna in 1683. Beginning in the 18th century, Orthodox Russia expanded from the east, through Belarus and Ukraine. For more than two centuries, the belt of countries stretching from the Baltic to the Black seas was the borderland over which three empires fought.

Geopolitical Journey: The Search for Belonging and Ballistic Missile Defense in Romania

During the Cold War, Romania confused all of us. Long after brutality in other communist countries declined, Romania remained a state that employed levels of violence best compared to North Korea today. Nicolae Ceausescu, referred to by admirers as the Genius of the Carpathians, ruled Romania with a ruthless irrationality. Government policies left the country cold and dark, and everyday items readily available just a few kilometers south in Bulgaria were rarities in Romania. At the same time -- and this was the paradox -- Romania was hostile and uncooperative with the Soviets. Bucharest refused to submit to Moscow, and this did not compute for many of us. Resistance to Soviet power, in our minds, meant liberalization, like what we saw in Hungary and Czechoslovakia. But not in Romania; Romania played a different game.

Romania is an inward-looking country that longs to be better integrated into the international system -- a difficult posture to maintain. Each time I return to Romania, I watch this struggle unfold. If Bucharest was an exception in the Soviet bloc, it is now finding it much harder than countries such as Poland to adapt to Europe. For Romania, becoming normal means becoming part of Europe, and that means joining the European Union and NATO. The idea of not being fully accepted in Brussels creates real angst in Bucharest. When I point out the obvious difficulties affecting both institutions and suggest that membership may not be the best solution for Romania, I am firmly rebuffed. They remember something I sometimes forget: After the insanity of Ceausescu, they need to be European. No matter how flawed Europe is today, the thought of being isolated as they once were is unbearable.

Germany mulls Schengen veto on Bulgaria and Romania

Germany says it will not allow Bulgaria or Romania to join the EU's passport-free Schengen zone if the issue is put to a vote in the EU on Thursday.

"If Romania and Bulgaria insist on a vote, the attempt will fail because of a German veto," German Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich said.

Could Romania be Europe’s breadbasket?

A shepherd with his flock in Râșnov, in front of the Bucegi mountains, around 150km north of Bucharest

AFP

ADEVĂRUL BUCHAREST

Against a backdrop of global crisis, the battle for resources is set to escalate in 2013. At a time when the EU is turning to Russia for its energy needs, one of its member states could supply the others with agricultural produce. But for this to happen, Romanians will have to take full advantage of their country’s assets.

Romania exit polls give center-left gov’t clear victory in parliamentary elections

Romania’s center-left government won a clear victory in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, according to exit polls. The result could inflame the personal rivalry between the nation’s top two officials and bring yet more political upheaval.

The prime minister’s governing alliance had about 57 percent of seats in the 452-seat legislature, according to a poll published after elections on national television TVR.

Coming in second was a center-right group, allied to President Traian Basescu, which polled over 18 percent. A populist party headed by a media tycoon won about 13 percent, according to the poll. First results are expected Monday.