China in the Caucasus: For Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, China is an important investor and possible regional stabilizer.

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan (L) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a signing ceremony in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing (March 25, 2015)

Image Credit: REUTERS/Feng Li/Pool

On his first visit to Beijing, then-Armenian defense minister Vazgen Sargsyan is said to have thrown the hosts into a state of mild confusion when he remarked that (paraphrased) “as we say in Armenia, together with the Chinese there is more than a billion of us.” Jokes and linguistic barriers aside, the comment reflected the main motivating factor behind Armenia’s outreach to China. When dealing with larger and often hostile neighbors, it is only natural for small countries to seek out support or, as a paper published by the Armenian government’s think tank put it, a “special partnership,” externally.

The South Caucasus Countries and Their Security Dimension

 
 

Oil Pump in Baku

Tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh and the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia continue to give the South Caucasus region a bad name. That won’t change any time soon, warns Eugene Kogan, unless Russia alters its ‘status quo’ policies towards this volatile area.

By Eugene Kogan for Center for International and European Studies (CIES)

The two unresolved conflicts in the South Caucasus hang over Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia like the Sword of Damocles. As seen from every view point, Russia’s influence, levers and policy toward conflicts resolution remain the key issues. As long as Moscow maintains a status quo policy and keeps the outside actors at arm’s length from the region, the unresolved conflicts will continue to fester. The potential for a third conflict should not be underestimated, since all the necessary ingredients for an explosive situation are in place. The aloofness of President Barack Obama coupled with a politically divided and militarily impotent European Union makes conflicts resolution very remote, if it is at all possible. The continuing ambiguous position of NATO member states concerning the membership of Georgia in NATO makes things worse for Georgia and leaves it vulnerable to intimidation by Russia. Turkey’s ambitions are well-known, but Turkey alone is no match for Russia in the South Caucasus. So, what can be done to change the situation?