Syrian War Update: Risks Growing for Southern Turkey

A recent bombing in Gaziantep, Turkey underscores the current elevated threat posed by the Islamic State to the nation’s southern border provinces. Security is unlikely to improve given the ongoing conflict in the northern Aleppo region.

Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, Turkey has increasingly been entangled in the devastating war of its southern neighbor. Ankara is actively supporting several insurgent factions opposed to the Syrian government as well as to Kurdish forces and other radical Islamist militants. Since July 2015, the conflict became an integral part of Turkey’s internal security environment as Islamic State militants carried out several high-profile attacks in Suruc, Ankara, and Istanbul.

Why don't EU leaders realise that this refugee deal with Turkey is exactly what the people traffickers want?

By any measure, the war waged by the EU against the people smugglers blamed for the refugee crisis has been an abject failure.

Refugees at a makeshift camp near the Greek village of Idomeni; thousands are stranded at the Balkan border AFP/Getty

If sabre-rattling, barbed wire, and naval flotillas and other barriers could disrupt the trade in transporting migrants, this is a war would have been won long ago.

Ankara bombing raises questions over Turkey’s stability

The March 13th bombing in Ankara is the third terrorist attack that hit the capital in a six-month period. The blast is a strong indicator for both the elevated terrorist threat Turkey currently faces, as well as the potential risks the country may face in the future.

In less than a month the Turkish capital was hit by two major terrorist attacks. On February 17th, a militant linked to the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) detonated a suicide car-bomb in the centre of Ankara. The blast targeted a military convoy and left 29 dead.

The Istanbul explosion and terrorism in Turkey

On January 12th, a single suicide bomber detonated his suicide vest in the touristic centre of Istanbul.

The explosion occurred in the vicinity of the Obelisk of Theodosius in the Sultanahmet Square of Istanbul’s Fatih district. The blast left at least ten dead, all of whom were German tourists. Government officials stated that the perpetrator has been identified as a Syrian national who entered the country on January 5th through the Syrian border as a refugee.

Turkey’s Hapless Opposition

The results of Turkey’s stunning Nov. 1 election, which marked a remarkable comeback for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), came as a huge surprise to Turks and foreign observers alike. In the previous elections, held in June, the AKP lost its majority for the first time since 2002, and the president’s opponents had hoped that his ambitions would be curtailed. None of Turkey’s 23 polling companies came even close to predicting the voters’ swing back to the AKP, which gained nearly 9 percent (approximately 4.8 million votes) and 59 more seats in parliament. This outcome has inevitably invited a closer examination of the dismal state of Turkey’s opposition parties.

Four possible outcomes of Turkey’s November election

With the ruling AKP’s failure to form a coalition government, the November 1 election will play a critical part in deciding Turkey’s future.

These are dark days for Turkey. With the lira falling, repression and violence against media outlets on the rise, and an increasing shift to authoritarianism, the elections in November are critical for deciding the future political discourse in Turkey.

Turkish lira or Syrian pound? Currency debate sparks divide in Northern Syria

Opposition groups in Syria’s North are opting to use the Turkish lira over the Syrian pound to take advantage of a more stable currency, while also deliberately seeking to devalue the Syrian pound and undermine Assad’s power. But how much of a larger economic and political impact is this likely to have on the regime?

Some local institutions in opposition-held parts of northern Syria are opting to use the Turkish lira over the Syrian pound as their primary means of exchange. The lira is overall much less volatile than the Syrian pound, which has been hit hard after five years of conflict.

How Low Will Erdogan Go?

On June 7, Turkish voters went to the polls and denied President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (the AKP) a governing majority for the first time in over a decade. It appeared the AKP would have to negotiate with other political parties to build a coalition government — a clear setback for Erdogan, who hoped to use an electoral victory to consolidate his increasingly authoritarian rule. Yet the elation among those worried what Erdogan’s success would mean for Turkish democracy quickly turned to despair. Over the course of the summer, commentators went from celebrating a “carnival of pluralism and liberalism” to declaring more recently that Turkey was “on the road to Armageddon.”

Bringing Turkey's Border Strategy Into Focus

Satellite images taken at the Turkey-Syria border corroborate what Stratfor predicted weeks ago: that Turkey, now partnered with the United States, will strike at Islamic State-controlled territory adjacent to the Turkish border. The Turks reportedly began to reinforce their southern border with troops and equipment as early as July 3. But according to these images, which were taken July 26, we now know that that equipment includes Turkish-made main battle tanks and support units poised in a defensive position on the Turkish side of the border.

Turkey Goes to War

One month ago, Abu Mohammed al-Halabi painted a dismal picture of his fighters’ struggles against the Islamic State along a crucial geographical corridor north of the Syrian city of Aleppo. The jihadis had killed three of his men in a nighttime ambush in mid-June while using night-vision goggles more advanced than anything his group possessed. His brigade had been fighting for 10 days straight without any injection of money or equipment. If this continued for another week, the beleaguered rebel commander told Foreign Policy, “anything could happen” — even a complete collapse of rebel lines.

Greece and Turkey should build on "low politics"

Two of the major allies in NATO and the wider Mediterranean region, Greece and Turkey have long being faced with huge dilemmas of stability and security in the Middle East and North Africa. Under the current pivotal shifts of global and regional influence, these two countries have a lot to win by cooperating closely and consistently.

The unfolding of the Greek financial crisis has been heightened up during the last six months. Even after the first agreement at the latest Euro Summit over a third bailout deal, economic conditions and the future of Greece inside Eurozone are not yet secured. And not that much because the Greek government does not look for it, but because the financial deal has nothing to incite hopeful thoughts over growth development. The bailout deal is not investment-oriented  nor addresses the major macroeconomic burdens of the Greek economy. 

The Turkish Enigma

In my "Net Assessment of the World," I argued that four major segments of the European and Asian landmass were in crisis: Europe, Russia, the Middle East (from the Levant to Iran) and China. Each crisis was different; each was at a different stage of development. Collectively the crises threatened to destabilize the Eurasian landmass, the Eastern Hemisphere, and potentially generate a global crisis. They do not have to merge into a single crisis to be dangerous. Four simultaneous crises in the center of humanity's geopolitical gravity would be destabilizing by itself. However, if they began to merge and interact, the risks would multiply. Containing each crisis by itself would be a daunting task. Managing crises that were interlocked would press the limits of manageability and even push beyond.

Does Turkey Prefer A European Or Eurasian Energy Union?

The sixth meeting of the World Forum on Energy Regulation is scheduled to be held on May 25–28, in Istanbul, and is being organized by the office of the prime minister of the Turkish Republic. The competitive and dynamically expanding nature of the energy sector in Eurasia has been boosting Turkey’s regional importance as it prepares to take on the role of a strategically important transit and energy hub country (Hurriyet Daily News, January 28).

December 2014 saw the reemergence of competition between rival pipeline projects in Eurasia—similar to the earlier competition between the Nabucco natural gas pipeline, proposed by a consortium of European companies, and Russia’s South Stream. Currently, Russia’s new proposed pipeline project—Turkish Stream—is challenging the Azerbaijani-initiated Southern Gas Corridor, which will carry Caspian-basin gas to Europe via the South Caucasus, Turkey and then across Southeastern Europe.

Turkey’s Tomb Raiders

 

It was a story that mystified many non-Turks. On the night of Feb. 21, Turkey sent a military convoy into Syria to rescue 38 of its soldiers who had been surrounded by forces of the Islamic State. So what were those Turkish soldiers doing inside Syria? They were guarding the tomb ofSuleyman Shah, the grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman Empire and, correspondingly, a figure of considerable emotional significance to modern-day Turkish nationalists. In 1921, Turkey negotiated a treaty with France (the colonial power that then controlled Syria) that gave Ankara sovereignty over the tomb.

Army of Spin: Following in Putin's footsteps, the Turkish government is gearing up for full-fledged information warfare.

The foreign media image of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Turkish government has shattered over the past 18 months, and in response Turkey has ramped up an aggressive international information blitzkrieg. The campaign is made up of two fundamental elements: condemnation of allegedly duplicitous Western coverage, and a concerted effort to communicate the government’s message internationally. The onslaught is intense and the tone is becoming increasingly bitter.

The words of a recent piece by Ibrahim Karagul, the editor-in-chief of the pro-Erdogan newspaper Yeni Safak, reflect the mood: “What we have been experiencing for the last two years is a global struggle. This is why they have declared war against Turkey and its calculations for the future…. If you have plans to be a great country then you will find the whole world opposing you.”

How Safe Are Turkey’s Oil And Gas Pipelines?

Bashar Assad is a man of his word. In 2011, when the civil war began in Syria, President Assad delivered a promise to the international community and a threat to his neighbors: the violence will spread.

Today, Iraq is partially occupied by the Islamic State -- which can trace its beginning to the chaos of war-torn Syria -- Lebanon has been repeatedly hit by Syria-related violence, and border towns and villages along the Turkish-Syrian border have come under attack from various forces fighting in the country. Even Jordan is suffering under the weight of more than a million Syrian refugees who have created the country’s second-largest city, population-wise.

Turkey in ‘tight race’ for UN Security Council seat

Turkey is in “very tight race” with Spain and New Zealand for one of two available seats on the UN Security Council.

The United Nations Security Council meets at the UN on July 22, 2014 in New York City. (photo credit: Kena Betancur/Getty Images/AFP)

The UN General Assembly’s 193 member states will vote Thursday to elect five new members 

to the UN’s most powerful body and Venezuela’s socialist government is virtually certain to win 

because it is unopposed for the single seat allocated to Latin America and the Caribbean.

Fiddling While Kobani Burns

Last week, the Turkish Grand National Assembly voted to authorizethe use of force in Syria and Iraq. Turkish legislators also voted to permit the deployment of foreign forces in Turkey for the purpose of fighting against the Islamic State (IS). The votes were heralded in the Turkish and U.S. media as proof that Ankara is a dependable ally in the ongoing battle against the Islamic State. So why are Turkish forces sitting idly along the border while jihadist militants advance toward the border?

Turkey, the Kurds and Iraq: The Prize and Peril of Kirkuk

In June 1919, aboard an Allied warship en route to Paris, sat Damat Ferid Pasha, the Grand Vizier of a crumbling Ottoman Empire. The elderly statesman, donning an iconic red fez and boasting an impeccably groomed mustache, held in his hands a memorandum that he was to present to the Allied powers at the Quai d'Orsay. The negotiations on postwar reparations started five months earlier, but the Ottoman delegation was prepared to make the most of its tardy invitation to the talks. As he journeyed across the Mediterranean that summer toward the French shore, Damat Ferid mentally rehearsed the list of demands he would make to the Allied powers during his last-ditch effort to hold the empire together.

He began with a message, not of reproach, but of inculpability: "Gentlemen, I should not be bold enough to come before this High Assembly if I thought that the Ottoman people had incurred any responsibility in the war that has ravaged Europe and Asia with fire and sword." His speech was followed by an even more defiant memorandum, denouncing any attempt to redistribute Ottoman land to the Kurds, Greeks and Armenians, asserting: "In Asia, the Turkish lands are bounded on the south by the provinces of Mosul and Diyarbakir, as well as a part of Aleppo as far as the Mediterranean." When Damat Ferid's demands were presented in Paris, the Allies were in awe of the gall displayed by the Ottoman delegation. British Prime Minister David Lloyd George regarded the presentation as a "good joke," while U.S. President Woodrow Wilson said he had never seen anything more "stupid." They flatly rejected Damat Ferid's apparently misguided appeal -- declaring that the Turks were unfit to rule over other races, regardless of their common Muslim identity -- and told him and his delegation to leave. The Western powers then proceeded, through their own bickering, to divide the post-Ottoman spoils.

Turkey mulling ‘buffer zone’ against Islamic State

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that Turkey’s military is working on plans to 

establish a “buffer zone” on his country’s borders with Iraq and Syria against Islamic State 

terrorists, Turkish media reports said Tuesday.

Turkish troops stationed at the border gate with Syria in Akcakale, Turkey (photo credit: AP)

Asked about the possibility of a buffer zone on Turkey’s southern borders, Hurriyet and other 

media quoted Erdogan as saying: “The armed forces are working (on plans). They will bring 

them to us. We will decide if it is necessary.”