Impact of France’s evolving terrorist threat

The wave of terrorist attacks that hit France in the last 18 months underscores that the country is a primary target for radical Islamist militants, while also having a deep political and economic impact.

Two deadly terrorist attacks made July 2016 one of the bloodiest months so far in France’s modern history. A lone-wolf radical Islamist militant rammed his heavy lorry truck into crowds participating in Bastille Day events along the coastline of Nice, killing 85 people. The attack came only a day after President Hollande had hinted at a possible end to the state of emergency under which France has been since November 2015. The special legal measure has now been extended until January 2017.

Terrorists Once Used Truck Bombs. In Nice, the Truck Itself Was the Weapon.

Large trucks packed with explosives have become a grim trademark of modern terrorism, killing 241 U.S. service personnel in Beirut in 1983 and ripping through the United Nations compound in Baghdad in 2003, killing 22, including the world body’s top diplomat in Iraq, Sérgio Vieira de Mello.

But as militants from groups like the Islamic State and al Qaeda look to kill as many civilians in as many places as possible, they’re skipping the cost, expense, and risk of obtaining explosives and instead simply using normal trucks as more mundane — and cheaper — weapons of war. And as the carnage in Nice, France, has made clear, trucks that aren’t used as bombs can kill as many people as those that are.

ISIS feeds on Iraq’s political instability and oil

For 15 years, Iraq has been under constant media attention. From the suspicions of hidden weapons of mass destruction to the high level violence of the Islamic State (ISIS), a lot has been said on what is happening in Iraq, why it is happening, and how it got there. However, since 2014, the increase in opinions, debates, and experts on terrorism has only contributed to a lack of meaning.

Iraq has been in a constant state of political chaos, of which the 2003 US-led intervention was the starting point. Driven by the idea of American idealism and transforming the intervention into an ideological war, the US goal behind the invasion of Iraq was to establish democracy in the Middle East. But at what price for Iraq?

The Rotten Heart of Europe: The rampant dysfunction in Belgium puts us all in danger.

Four days after Belgian police captured suspected Paris attacker Salah Abdeslam in Brussels –triggering a round of congratulatory news conferences in which French President François Hollande deemed the arrest “an important moment” in the fight against Islamist extremism — terror struck the Belgian capital. The Islamic State has claimed another hit on West European soil and here we go again: the gut-wrenching images of panicked people fleeing attack sites, the crushing stories of pain and loss, the displays of solidarity on social media and public buildings across the world, and, once again, the grief, shock, and panic.

Ankara bombing raises questions over Turkey’s stability

The March 13th bombing in Ankara is the third terrorist attack that hit the capital in a six-month period. The blast is a strong indicator for both the elevated terrorist threat Turkey currently faces, as well as the potential risks the country may face in the future.

In less than a month the Turkish capital was hit by two major terrorist attacks. On February 17th, a militant linked to the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) detonated a suicide car-bomb in the centre of Ankara. The blast targeted a military convoy and left 29 dead.

TERRORISM IN PARIS: AUX ARMES, CITOYENS?

Western indecision in Syria has allowed Daesh to grow strong, and enabled it to attack Europe. The Western response must be resolute abroad, and subtle at home, if it is to defeat Islamist extremism.

Sometimes an event occurs that should create clarity of purpose and lucidity of priorities. The Paris attacks are such an event. The tragedy must galvanise European and international support for a co-ordinated offensive against Daesh. Yet questions remain about how best to deal with terrorism at home.

The Istanbul explosion and terrorism in Turkey

On January 12th, a single suicide bomber detonated his suicide vest in the touristic centre of Istanbul.

The explosion occurred in the vicinity of the Obelisk of Theodosius in the Sultanahmet Square of Istanbul’s Fatih district. The blast left at least ten dead, all of whom were German tourists. Government officials stated that the perpetrator has been identified as a Syrian national who entered the country on January 5th through the Syrian border as a refugee.

Is this really our conflict?

There isn’t one war, the West versus Isis. Not even after last month’s terrorist attacks in Paris. There are layers of Middle Eastern conflicts, all linked to international intervention, of which the most intractable are heightened by the Sunni-Shia divide.

The Iranian revolution of 1979 established the world’s first officially Islamic regime, but being exclusively Shia, it resurrected memories of the age-old conflict between Sunni and Shia. On coming to power, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini demanded that the Muslim holy sites of Mecca and Medina be managed collectively. In Saudi Arabia this demand was seen as an intolerable challenge. (A young Sunni jihadist, Khaled Kelkal, involved in bombings in France in 1995, said he thought “Shiism was invented by the Jews to divide Islam” (1).) Violence against Shia by Saudi Wahhabis is nothing new: in 1802 the sack of Karbala (now in Iraq) led to the destruction of Shia shrines and tombs including that of the Prophet’s son-in-law Hussein, and the killing of many of the city’s inhabitants.

Does the United States Have a Gun Problem or a Terrorism Problem?

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In  the wake of the San Bernardino attack, the panel raises questions about how the U.S. government handles its own national security and the growing imbalance between real threats and perceived ones. Is gun control the real problem? Or has the U.S. government been too lax in its monitoring of terrorist activity? And can the American people trust that the U.S. Congress has its priorities in place when it comes to keeping them safe?

Individual Terrorism: The Media Perspective

Israeli police investigate the scene of a shooting attack on an Israeli car on a road near Kokhav Hashahar in the West Bank, July 31, 2015. Photo: Thomas Coex / AFP

Israeli coverage of individual terrorist attacks has generally followed a set pattern, notable primarily for the lesser prominence assigned to most attacks by the media. Attempted attacks, rock and Molotov cocktail throwing, and tire burnings that do not result in casualties are rarely reported. Moreover, even when the topic does make it to the media, it remains on the sidelines; coverage is brief, not prominently placed, and is quick to leave the news cycle. In order to deal with the phenomenon of individual terrorism, a balance must be found between the intensive media response to selected isolated events – which may create pressure on decision makers to take severe action and thereby contribute to a cycle of escalation – and acclimation to a routine of daily attacks in the security arena. Highlighting individual terrorism without surveying possible solutions for the phenomenon is problematic in that it may leave Israeli citizens with a sense of personal insecurity. On the other hand, media reticence may help resist a tendency to inflate the phenomenon, which could spur the political leadership to order more offensive measures in an effort to foil attacks or in response to their occurrence.

The Jihadist Trap of Here and Now

In recent weeks, I have found myself spending a lot of time thinking about the jihadist strategy of al Qaeda and how it compares to that of the Islamic State. Earlier this month, I wrote about the possibility that the al Qaeda brand of jihadism could outlast that of the Islamic State. Last week, I wrote about how ideologies are harder to kill than individuals, focusing on the effect that the death of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leader Nasir al-Wahayshi will have on the group and the wider global jihadist movement.

But beyond the impact of leaders like al-Wahayshi, there are other facets of strategy that will influence the war for the soul of jihadism. Specifically, I am talking about time and place. Both al Qaeda and the Islamic State seek to establish a global caliphate, but both differ quite starkly in how to accomplish this task and how soon it can be achieved.

Know your enemy: How to break the EU’s gridlock on security measures

Terrorism and organised crime are serious threats to Europe. The EU is better placed than the member-states to deal with the transnational aspects of these threats. But disagreements between the Council and the Parliament result in gridlock over security measures. One reason is that sensitive information cannot be shared with MEPs, leaving them in the dark about both the threats and the means to deal with them. If the EU wants to tackle the threat of terrorism effectively, MEPs should be given adequate access to confidential information.

UK humanitarian aid in the age of counterterrorism: perceptions and reality

For years, British humanitarian NGOs have criticised counter-terrorism laws for undermining their aid operations, and British Muslim NGOs have argued that they have been disproportionately affected by such laws. Banks have placed restrictions on the services they offer to various UK NGOs working in conflicts like Syria and Gaza while other NGOs have been hard hit by allegations of links to terrorism. All of this has affected the work of humanitarian organisations seeking to provide aid in high-risk conflict zones.

Nigeria’s Boko Haram pledges allegiance to Islamic State

Nigeria’s home-grown Boko Haram group, newly weakened by a multinational force that has dislodged it from a score of northeastern towns, reportedly pledged formal allegiance to the Islamic State group.

Bombs kill dozens in Nigerian city of Maiduguri(0:44)

Blasts in Nigeria's Maiduguri target busy markets and a bus station. (Reuters)

The pledge to IS came in an Arabic audio message with English subtitles alleged to have come from Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau and posted Saturday on Twitter, according to the SITE Intelligence monitoring service.

Boko Haram Turns Robin Hood’s Strategy on Its Head

 As a convoy of trucks carrying smoked fish cruised along the border of Niger and Nigeria last week, a Nigerien Air Force plane swooped low and opened fire, destroying the trucks and forcing the drivers to flee into Nigeria on foot.

The ill-fated fishmongers, Nigerien officials said, were collaborating with Boko Haram to sell their goods in Nigeria, despite Niger’s recent ban on cross-border fish trades. (Residents of Niger are called Nigerien; those from Nigeria are known as Nigerian). According to the Nigerien government, Boko Haram taxes goods transported through the territory the group controls to add to its cash reserves and finance terrorism, and the recent ban is intended to choke the Islamist group’s resources.

A Look Back at the 1993 World Trade Center Bombing Investigation

On the morning of Feb. 26, 1993, a massive truck bomb ripped a hole almost 100 feet across the B-2 level of the parking garage beneath the World Trade Center's North Tower. The blast wave was so powerful that it penetrated five stories of the reinforced concrete building. In addition to causing structural damage, the explosion destroyed or heavily damaged hundreds of vehicles parked in the garage. That such a powerful explosion killed only six people is nothing short of miracle, for the attackers had a goal much more grandiose.

They wanted to topple the North Tower onto the South Tower to destroy them both and kill thousands. Had a device of the same magnitude been detonated at street level during rush hour, it would have likely killed scores if not hundreds of people and wounded perhaps thousands more.

After Paris: What’s next for the EU’s counter-terrorism policy?

In the aftermath of the Charlie Hebdo shootings, both national governments and the European Union have announced that they will adopt new laws to combat terrorism. On January 29-30th the justice and interior ministers of the 28 member-states will hold an informal meeting in Riga to discuss what measures the EU should take. Rather than focusing on radical initiatives like the establishment of a European CIA, or the re-imposition of border controls, they should take some modest but important steps. In particular, they should overcome their differences on several key pieces of legislation which have been under discussion for some time and agree to use some powerful instruments that are already at their disposal. 



Anti-terror legislation in the EU has traditionally evolved in response to events: urgent measures, like the European Arrest Warrant and the setting up of Eurojust (the Union’s agency for judicial co-operation) were taken after the 9/11 attacks. Then in the wake of the Madrid and London bombings, in 2005, the EU adopted its first-ever counter-terrorism strategy. That was followed in 2006 by the so-called data retention directive, which required communication providers to store data about their customers for up to two years. However the European Court of Justice (ECJ) recently declared this directive void, stating that its provisions violated EU rights of privacy and data protection.

A War Between Two Worlds

The murders of cartoonists who made fun of Islam and of Jews shopping for their Sabbath meals by Islamists in Paris last week have galvanized the world. A galvanized world is always dangerous. Galvanized people can do careless things. It is in the extreme and emotion-laden moments that distance and coolness are most required. I am tempted to howl in rage. It is not my place to do so. My job is to try to dissect the event, place it in context and try to understand what has happened and why. From that, after the rage cools, plans for action can be made. Rage has its place, but actions must be taken with discipline and thought.

I have found that in thinking about things geopolitically, I can cool my own rage and find, if not meaning, at least explanation for events such as these. As it happens, my new book will be published on Jan. 27. Titled Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, it is about the unfolding failure of the great European experiment, the European Union, and the resurgence of European nationalism. It discusses the re-emerging borderlands and flashpoints of Europe and raises the possibility that Europe's attempt to abolish conflict will fail. I mention this book because one chapter is on the Mediterranean borderland and the very old conflict between Islam and Christianity. Obviously this is a matter I have given some thought to, and I will draw on Flashpoints to begin making sense of the murderers and murdered, when I think of things in this way.

Religion Is Not the Enemy: Salman Rushdie blames the "Charlie Hebdo" killings on "religion.” He’s got the wrong culprit.

 It was entirely appropriate that one of the first people to weigh in after theCharlie Hebdo massacre was Salman Rushdie, the man who spent yearsof his life defying a state-sponsored death threat prompted by a presumed act of blasphemy. Though Rushdie isn’t one of my favorite novelists, I’ve always admired his firm stand in defense of the freedom of speech — and I’m glad that the British government had the guts to defend his rights.

By the same token, I don’t in any way dispute his right to make the statement that he issued yesterday — even though I find myself in rather strong disagreement with it. Here’s what he said:

Paris Attack Underscores a Deeper Malaise

Wednesday's deadly attack against a French satirical publication has the potential to upset relations between European states and their Muslim citizenries. The strategic intent behind such attacks is precisely to sow this kind of crisis, as well as to influence French policy and recruit more jihadists. Even though Islamist extremism is, at its core, an intra-Muslim conflict, such incidents will draw in non-Muslims, exacerbating matters.

Three suspected Islamist militants attacked the Paris office of the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo with high-powered assault rifles, killing 12 people. Among the dead are the editor and cartoonist Stephane Charbonnier, who was on a hit list appearing in al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's Inspire magazine for "insulting the Prophet Mohammed." Eyewitness said they heard the attackers shouting, "We have avenged the Prophet Mohammed," and chanting, "God is Great" in Arabic. This is the third such attack in a Western country in less than three months. The Paris incident involves perpetrators who displayed sophisticated small arms and small unit training.