Ukraine crisis: How Vladimir Putin is winning the psychological war

As it emerges that the promised partial withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border has not taken place, Western powers are reduced to awaiting Moscow's next move.

Vladimir Putin's behaviour over Ukraine offers a masterclass in how to conduct psychological warfare Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev/ Getty

By David Blair

More than a century ago, Lenin told his fellow revolutionaries that demoralising the enemy by “issuing the first agitational leaflet” amounted to waging war by other means. 

President Vladimir Putin has clearly taken this lesson to heart: his behaviour over Ukraine offers a masterclass in how to conduct psychological warfare. With every abrupt change of message or confusing new signal, he is trying to keep his opponents permanently off balance while retaining the initiative for himself. 

Straight after Ukraine’s February revolution, the Kremlin’s first signal was one of reassurance. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, confirmed his country’s “principled position of non-interference into Ukraine’s internal affairs” on Feb 25, declaring that Moscow’s aim was to “calm the situation down”. 

Barely three days after those conciliatory words, Russian troops seized Crimea and triggered today’s crisis. Once that operation was complete, Mr Putin escalated the situation by massing thousands of troops on Ukraine’s eastern frontier. By last Friday, President Barack Obama was sufficiently alarmed to issue a public warning. 

In response, Mr Putin carefully lowered the temperature. He picked up the phone and rang Mr Obama before dispatching his foreign minister to meet John Kerry, the US secretary of state. On Monday, Mr Putin assured Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, that some Russian troops would be pulled back from the border area.

On Tuesday, it emerged that no such withdrawal had taken place. Instead, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Nato secretary-general, warned of a “massive military build-up”.
And so the tension rose again, just as Mr Putin would have wished. The Western powers are now reduced to awaiting his next move, feeling anxious or reassured according to his whim. Whatever his other setbacks, Mr Putin is winning the psychological campaign. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10738175/Ukraine-crisis-How-Vladimir-Putin-is-winning-the-psychological-war.html