Ukraine's Government Tries to Retake Control in the East

A pro-Russian militant guards a state building seized in Donetsk, Ukraine.(VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images)

Kiev and Moscow are escalating their battle for control of eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian government announced June 3 that it would launch the next stage of a campaign to win back control of the country's east from militant separatists. At the same time, Russian-backed groups are working to consolidate control over those same separatists as a way to put more pressure on Kiev to compromise. Both sides believe eastern Ukraine is critical for determining the country's future orientation and territorial unity, and Russia will use all the leverage it can find to pressure Kiev into accepting its conditions for a stand-down.

Analysis

Separatists continue to occupy buildings and shoot down Ukrainian helicopters, imposing a heavy burden on the government in Kiev. While separatists are spread out through towns and villages in Donestk and Luhansk regions, the strongholds of separatist activity are the cities of Luhansk, Donetsk and Slovyansk. Groups of militants are also present around some parts of Luhansk region's long, largely unsecured border. There are notable differences, however, among these clusters of separatists.

Slovyansk is the Ukrainian military's first target as it moves eastward in an attempt to reassert control over the region. But while Ukrainian troops have removed several separatist checkpoints outside the city, they have been unable or unwilling to enter the city center. Despite being under direct Ukrainian military siege for several weeks, the Slovyansk militants are showing no signs that their abilities have been degraded. Since the beginning of the conflict, separatists in Slovyansk have appeared to be the most well-organized and well-armed group. They have repeatedly demonstrated the ability to shoot down helicopters and executed multiple professional-level ambushes around the Slovyansk region. Therefore, at least some of the militants in the area are highly coordinated, have previous military training and are probably supplied by Russia.

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By contrast, while separatist groups in Donetsk initially consisted mostly of armed locals with little military training or hardware, that changed over the past few weeks with the emergence of the Vostok Battalion. The Vostok Battalion is mostly a Russian force. Its members openly identify themselves as Russian citizens, many of whom hail from the North Caucasus republics such as Chechnya and Ossetia, and some of whom reportedly took part in fighting during the 2008 Russo-Georgian war. The Vostok Battalion, like its counterparts in Slovyansk, carry weapons indicative of Russian support, but unlike the Slovyansk militants, Vostok members are known to have arrived from Russia.

Even though the Vostok Battalion took control of the headquarters of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic on May 29 and runs several checkpoints in the Donetsk area, it has not directly displaced the leadership of the Donetsk People's Republic. However, it does seem to have asserted control over the group's behavior and tactics. The Vostok Battalion's growing role within the separatist movement is further evidence of Russia's need to indirectly control separatist groups throughout eastern Ukraine and maintain militants as a lever in its ongoing negotiations with Kiev.

In the city of Luhansk, separatists have not displayed the kind of professional military skills or weaponry found in Donetsk and Slovyansk, including man-portable air defense systems or anti-armor ordnance, though they have not yet been in a direct military confrontation with the Ukrainian forces. Nevertheless, militants throughout Luhansk region, especially near its border with Russia, have shown that they are well organized, well armed and acting strategically. For example, as of June 3, militants had blown up three bridges across the Seversky Donets River in Luhansk, a sign that separatists may be working to isolate their positions and slow down a potential Ukrainian military offensive by destroying critical infrastructure. Furthermore, the militants' ongoing siege against border guards in Luhansk region indicates that separatists are committed to safeguarding -- and perhaps even expanding -- supply lines through Ukraine's porous border with Russia.

The Ukrainian military's top priority thus far has been securing eastern Ukraine's airports. In mid-April, Ukrainian troops retook the Slovyansk airport from separatists, and on May 26 Kiev ordered airstrikes as part of an effort to take control of the Donetsk airport. The separatists do not appear to have any air assets at their disposal, but they are increasingly using man-portable air defense systems to target Ukrainian aircraft, which could reduce Ukraine's aerial advantage. Moreover, as Ukrainian forces attempt to move closer to the cities under separatist control, they reach dense urban areas where any military moves carry a high risk of civilian casualties. On June 2, a Ukrainian military airstrike reportedly hit Luhansk's administration building, killing several people, according to locals. Ukraine's military spokesman denied that the strike had taken place.

Preventing separatist militant activity from spreading while also securing Ukraine's borders to stop the flow of militants and weapons is imperative for the Ukrainian military. While the military has largely been successful in isolating militants to certain pockets of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the only city it has tried to retake is Slovyansk, and even there it has achieved little so far. Moreover, the military does not currently have the capability necessary to fully seal Ukraine's long border with Russia.

As the government in Kiev battles pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, it is also trying to reach a broader accommodation with Moscow. Energy talks between Russian energy giant Gazprom and Ukraine's Naftogaz are ongoing, and a compromise on Ukraine's natural gas prices and debt payments is likely to take place, at least enough to prevent a cutoff in the near term. At the same time, Ukrainian President-elect Petro Poroshenko is preparing to sign a trade deal with the European Union, a move the Kremlin opposes, though Ukraine has reiterated it is not seeking NATO membership.

Armed separatist activity in eastern Ukraine, as well as Kiev's military response, must be seen within the context of Ukraine's ongoing energy and political dialogue with Russia. Kiev's resources are limited, and the separatist fighting may be more costly in terms of finances and military and civilian casualties than Kiev is willing to endure. As disputes over the energy relationship between the two countries continue and Russia seeks to prevent Kiev from expanding ties with the West, fighting in eastern Ukraine will be a potent tool for pressuring Ukraine's government.