Is The Arctic Dream Dead?

The Arctic offshore will be drilled; it’s only a matter of time. However, the dream to have commercially viable production in the immediate future may very well be dead. Continually slumping oil prices are the primary suspect, but they don’t tell the whole story of what is a complex demise.

The Arctic is awash in hydrocarbons. It is estimated to hold 90 billion barrels (bbl), or 13 percent, of the world’s undiscovered conventional oil – 30 bbl are thought to reside in Alaska’s Arctic region. The figure is even higher for the world’s undiscovered conventional natural gas at 30 percent, the majority of which lies in Russia’s West Siberian and East Barents Basins. In all, 84 percent of the Arctic’s undiscovered oil and gas is believed to occur offshore.

Norwegian F-16’s Near Collision With Russian MiG-31 Caught on Tape

"What the hell!" That was the reaction of a Norwegian fighter pilot as a Russian MiG-31 unexpectedly passed in front of his F-16.

The incident was caught on tape and is the latest example of what Norway says is the risk its fighter pilots run in carrying out quick reaction missions along the country's sprawling coastline. In recent months, Russia has stepped up its military activity, and Western military forces have repeatedly had to scramble jets to intercept formations of Russian planes passing near their airspace.

Taking the Strategic Intelligence Model to Moscow

I am going to visit Moscow next week. I was invited by the Moscow State Institute of International Relations to speak on strategic analysis, their term for what Stratfor calls strategic forecasting. Going to Moscow would give me pause under any circumstances. I am a product of the Cold War, and for me, at some level, Moscow is the city of the enemy. For my father, that city was Berlin. For my daughter, it was Fallujah. In every war there is an enemy and a city that embodies that enemy. I have spent too much of my life fixated on Moscow to lose the ingrained sense that it is a city of darkness and conspiracy.

My children don't have that sense of Moscow, and it is fading in me as well, like memories of old loves. It's there, but it's not there. Certainly, we are not on the verge of nuclear war, nor are we expecting Soviet divisions to pour into West Germany. But it is interesting to me that those I mentioned this trip to — people who are aware that I am constantly traveling and discussing such matters — have expressed concern for my safety. Some have asked whether I was afraid of being arrested or afraid for my life. Stratfor's security director even took a half hour of my time to remind me of the potential dangers. We both are of an age to have enjoyed the conversation mightily.

Public investment: A modest proposal

Last Wednesday Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, announced his plan to create a €315 billion ‘European Fund for Strategic Investment’ to try to stimulate the European economy. It will take the form of an investment fund; €21 billion will be taken from the EU budget and the European Investment Bank to act as the fund’s capital. This will be used to offer guarantees that will reduce risk for private investors. The hope is that this will stimulate private lending to infrastructure and research and development, and take the value of investment over €300 billion.

That figure looks impressive, but the fund is unlikely to have much impact on growth. This is because it has been designed to avoid any new public borrowing for investment. There is no new public spending – pre-existing funds are being shuffled into the programme. So new spending will have to come as a result of loans from the private sector. Juncker hopes that the capital of the fund can be ‘leveraged’ by 15 times, meaning that the value of private lending will dwarf the public capital that has been committed. This would be double the leverage ratio of the European Stability Mechanism, and infrastructure investments are often more risky than lending to governments, which should reduce private investors’ willingness to lend to the fund. Finally, member-states can inject more capital into the fund if they wish, and these investments will be excluded from their deficit targets under the eurozone’s fiscal rules. But they are unlikely to do so, since the European Investment Bank will pick the projects that will be funded, and so governments’ capital will be mostly used in other member-states.

Abe - Xinping Meet: A Thaw in China-Japan Relations?

After almost two years of the election of Shinzo Abe as the Prime Minister of Japan, he and and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for the first time at a summit meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathering in Beijing on 10 November 2014.

Shinzo Abe and Xi Jinping have deliberately avoided each other since coming to power. The rivalry between China and Japan over the islands in the East China Sea and other maritime and historical disputes have overshadowed huge economic exchanges and the dependence that both countries have on each other. Many have commented that if their foreign policy courses are not corrected, it would have a destabilising effect on the region. Thus, even though the meeting between Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe lacked substance and was more symbolic, it has been appreciated as a positive gesture from both sides.

Σε πρόωρες εκλογές οδηγεί το Ισραήλ ο Νετανιάχου

Προς πρόωρες εκλογές οδεύει το Ισραήλ μετά τη βαρύτατη ενδοκυβερνητική κρίση που ξέσπασε μεταξύ των εταίρων.

«Δεν πρόκειται να ανεχθώ πλέον την αντιπολίτευση στους κόλπους της κυβέρνησης», δήλωσε ο Ισραηλινός πρωθυπουργός Νετανιάχου και ζήτησε την προκήρυξη εκλογών

Ο Ισραηλινός πρωθυπουργός Μπένιαμιν Νετανιάχου ανακοίνωσε πρώτα την αποπομπή των υπουργών Δικαιοσύνης και Οικονομικών, οι οποίοι ηγούνται των κεντρώων κομμάτων Γες Ατίντ και Χάτνουα αντίστοιχα, και στη συνέχεια την πρόθεσή του να διαλύσει το κοινοβούλιο και να προσφύγει στις κάλπες.

Αντιδρά η Βουλγαρία στη ματαίωση του South Stream

Έντονες αναταράξεις στις χώρες της Νότιας και της Ανατολικής Ευρώπης προκαλεί η ματαίωση -σύμφωνα με τις προχθεσινές δηλώσεις Πούτιν από την Αγκυρα- του αγωγού μεταφοράς ρωσικού φυσικού αερίου South Stream.

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«Ο South Stream δεν είναι ένα διμερές σχέδιο Ρωσίας και Βουλγαρίας, αλλά ένα σχέδιο που εμπλέκει τη Ρωσία και ολόκληρη την Ευρωπαϊκή Ενωση», είπε, σχολιάζοντας τις δηλώσεις Πούτιν, ο πρόεδρος της Βουλγαρίας Ρόσεν Πλέβνελιεφ.

Περισσότερο έντονες εμφανίζονται οι αντιδράσεις στη Βουλγαρία, την οποία ο Ρώσος πρόεδρος κατηγόρησε ότι υπέκυψε στις πιέσεις της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής και τορπίλισε το σχέδιο.

Investigation finds 50,000 ‘ghost’ soldiers in Iraqi army, prime minister says

The Iraqi army has been paying salaries to at least 50,000 soldiers who don’t exist, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said Sunday, an indication of the level of corruption that permeates an institution that the United States has spent billions equipping and arming.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi (Hadi Mizban/AP)

A preliminary investigation into “ghost soldiers” — whose salaries are being drawn but who are not in military service — revealed the tens of thousands of false names on Defense Ministry rolls, Abadi told parliament Sunday. Follow-up investigations are expected to uncover “more and more,” he added.

Demilitarizing Kashmir’s Demographic Question

As India’s National Highway 1A winds its way towards the soaring peaks of the Pir Panjal Range, changes in the cultural landscape are difficult to miss. Vishnoi dhaba stalls selling “pure veg” fare cede to rickety roadside hotels manned by vendors clad in the distinctive Kashmiri pheran. The 2.85-kilometer Jawahar tunnel – the namesake of the country’s venerated patriarch Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru – effectively bifurcates the two worlds. Security becomes overweening, and the demographic transition coarse. This wasn’t always the case.

Image Credit: REUTERS/Danish Ismail

Between the late 1980s and the present approximately 137,000 Hindu Pandits left the Kashmir valley. Their departure, facilitated by state forces, was a result of multiple factors, including intimidation and violence related to the onset of the separatist insurgency, as well as economic and social concerns. In a 1999 ruling of the National Human Rights Commission, the factors motivating the community’s dislocation were said to have fallen short of those present during acts of genocide. On the basis of this judgment, Kashmiri Pandits have since been denied status as Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). India’s recognition of IDP rights – whether in Manipur, Gujarat or Assam – has, however, been uniformly poor: politics, rather than principle, has been decisive.

Μαραθώνιος Διαπραγματεύσεων Από τη Λίμα Μέχρι το Παρίσι για το Κλίμα

Εκατόν ενενήντα αντιπροσωπείες απ' όλο τον κόσμο συναντώνται σήμερα στη Λίμα για δύο εβδομάδες διαπραγματεύσεων σχετικά με τις δεσμεύσεις κάθε χώρας στη μάχη εναντίον της ανόδου της θερμοκρασίας του κλίματος, ώστε να ανοίξει ο δρόμος για να συναφθεί μέσα σ' ένα χρόνο μια πολυμερής συμφωνία στο Παρίσι.

Η διεθνής κοινότητα συμμερίζεται πλέον ευρέως τη διαπίστωση: επείγει να αναληφθεί δράση σε πολύ πιο φιλόδοξη κλίμακα επειδή οι εκπομπές των αερίων που προκαλούν το φαινόμενο του θερμοκηπίου δεν σταματούν να αυξάνονται (2,2% ετησίως). Με το ρυθμό αυτό, ο πλανήτης κατευθύνεται προς μια αύξηση της θερμοκρασίας κατά περίπου 4 βαθμούς Κελσίου μέχρι το τέλος του αιώνα, σε σχέση με την προβιομηχανική εποχή.