Πέμπτη 26 Φεβρουαρίου 2015

Kerry: Netanyahu Wrong on Iraq and Wrong on Iran

The nation’s top diplomat offered a decidedly undiplomatic take in describing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition to a potential nuclear deal with Iran.
Kerry: Netanyahu Wrong on Iraq and Wrong on Iran
“Israel is safer today with the added time we have given and the stoppage of the advances in the nuclear program than they were before we got that agreement, which by the way the prime minister opposed,” Secretary of State John Kerry said during a House Committee on Foreign Affairs hearing Wednesday. “He was wrong.”

A Look Back at the 1993 World Trade Center Bombing Investigation

On the morning of Feb. 26, 1993, a massive truck bomb ripped a hole almost 100 feet across the B-2 level of the parking garage beneath the World Trade Center's North Tower. The blast wave was so powerful that it penetrated five stories of the reinforced concrete building. In addition to causing structural damage, the explosion destroyed or heavily damaged hundreds of vehicles parked in the garage. That such a powerful explosion killed only six people is nothing short of miracle, for the attackers had a goal much more grandiose.

Αποτέλεσμα εικόνας για 1993 World Trade Center Bombing

They wanted to topple the North Tower onto the South Tower to destroy them both and kill thousands. Had a device of the same magnitude been detonated at street level during rush hour, it would have likely killed scores if not hundreds of people and wounded perhaps thousands more.

Τετάρτη 25 Φεβρουαρίου 2015

Increased security risk ahead for Golan Heights’ economy

The Syrian Civil War is intensifying along the border with Israel. This will upset the political balance of the region and will impact the economy of the Golan Heights with new short and long-term political risk.
Increased security risk ahead for Golan Heights’ economy
For decades, the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights have been relatively calm. Internationally recognized as part of Syria, the strategic and resource rich region was captured by Israel from Syria during the Six Day War in 1967. A recent spike in violence indicates that the local political economy may be facing its greatest upheaval in decades.

Ο Πούτιν και το απομονωμένο βασίλειο: Γιατί οι κυρώσεις φέρνουν την Μόσχα και την Πιονγκγιάνγκ πιο κοντά

Ο ηγέτης της Βόρειας Κορέας, Κιμ Γιονγκ-Ουν, χαιρετά τον κόσμο στην διάρκεια παρέλασης για την 60ή επέτειο από την ανακωχή του Πολέμου της Κορέας, στην Πιονγκγιάνγκ, στις 27 Ιουλίου 2013. (Jason Lee/Reuters)

Αν οι φήμες αληθεύουν, ο ηγέτης της Βόρειας Κορέας, Κιμ Γιονγκ-Ουν, θα επισκεφθεί την Ρωσία [1] τον Μάιο κατά την διάρκεια μιας τελετής για τον Β’ Παγκόσμιο Πόλεμο στην Μόσχα. Ο Ρώσος πρεσβευτής στην Βόρεια Κορέα, Alexander Matsegora, επιβεβαίωσε επίσης πρόσφατα [2] ότι «ο Κιμ Γιονγκ -Ουν και ο Βλαντιμίρ Πούτιν ανταλλάσσουν μηνύματα τακτικά». Επιφανειακά φαίνεται ότι μια αναζωογονημένη συμμαχία μεταξύ Ρωσίας και Βόρειας Κορέας θα ήταν πιθανή. Παρατηρώντας αυτήν την τάση, πολλοί στρατηγικοί αναλυτές έχουν υποστηρίξει ότι τα συμφέροντα της Ρωσίας στην Βόρεια Κορέα είναι κατά κύριο λόγο οικονομικά [3], συμπεριλαμβανομένου ενός διηπειρωτικού σιδηροδρόμου και του αγωγού φυσικού αερίου που θα περνάει από την χώρα. Αλλά αυτός ο χαριεντισμός της Ρωσίας με την Βόρεια Κορέα ταιριάζει επίσης σ’ ένα γεωπολιτικό σχήμα που θυμίζει τις πρώτες ημέρες του Ψυχρού Πολέμου: Ο μεγάλος ανταγωνισμός ισχύος με τις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες είναι εκείνος που κατευθύνει την στρατηγική της Ρωσίας για την Βόρεια Κορέα, ενώ η διπλωματική αβρότητα μεταξύ αυτών των πρώην κομμουνιστικών συμμάχων μεταμφιέζει τα αληθινά κίνητρα της Ρωσίας.

Turkey’s Tomb Raiders

 Turkey’s Tomb Raiders
It was a story that mystified many non-Turks. On the night of Feb. 21, Turkey sent a military convoy into Syria to rescue 38 of its soldiers who had been surrounded by forces of the Islamic State. So what were those Turkish soldiers doing inside Syria? They were guarding the tomb ofSuleyman Shah, the grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman Empire and, correspondingly, a figure of considerable emotional significance to modern-day Turkish nationalists. In 1921, Turkey negotiated a treaty with France (the colonial power that then controlled Syria) that gave Ankara sovereignty over the tomb.

The Intersection of Three Crises

Αποτέλεσμα εικόνας για ukraine crisis

Within the past two weeks, a temporary deal to keep Greece in the eurozone was reached in Brussels, a cease-fire roadmap was agreed to in Minsk and Iranian negotiators advanced a potential nuclear deal in Geneva. Squadrons of diplomats have forestalled one geopolitical crisis after another. Yet it would be premature, even reckless, to assume that the fault lines defining these issues are effectively stable. Understanding how these crises are inextricably linked is the first step toward assessing when and where the next flare-up is likely to occur.

Could Iranian Gas Be The Solution For Europe?

Russia, beware, Iran is trying to get into the European gas market.
Could Iranian Gas Be The Solution For Europe?
In recent months, Iranian officials have been signaling to potential customers in Europe, potential suppliers in the Caspian Basin, and transit country Turkey that Iran is not only ready to get into the game but that without Iranian participation the European Union's Southern Gas Corridor will take many years to realize, or might never be realized.

Reduced to rouble? An update on the Russian economy

Recent events in Ukraine have shown that Russia is determined to change the balance of power in Europe. Whether Vladimir Putin can be stopped by diplomacy or sanctions remains an open question (and is the subject of a forthcoming CER policy brief). Russia’s economy, however, is in deep trouble. Although the oil price and the rouble have stabilised, the Russian economy will go through a long, deep and painful recession as high interest rates and poor access to finance hits investment, inflation erodes customers’ disposable incomes and the government tightens fiscal policy. A renewed fall in the oil price and the rouble would be likely to lead to a severe crisis, as Russia’s foreign reserves are dwindling, and renewed capital flight could lead to the imposition of capital controls. The problem is that a collapse and subsequent bailout of Russia is not in the interest of the West.
Reduced to rouble?

Putin’s first decade in power was underpinned by rising oil prices, which allowed a rent-seeking elite to earn fortunes from Russia’s mineral wealth. As a result of the resource boom, the rouble’s real effective exchange rate (which takes Russia’s high inflation into account) rose strongly from 1999 to 2008. This made non-resource export industries uncompetitive – a common phenomenon of resource-rich countries called ‘Dutch disease’ (see chart 1).

Τρίτη 24 Φεβρουαρίου 2015

A Pan-Arab Military Remains Elusive

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the former head of Egypt's armed forces, has proposed a familiar (but flawed) solution to the region's emerging security problems. In a recorded address released by state media on Sunday, the president appealed for a coordinated regional military response to the rising threat posed by armed groups.
Security has deteriorated across the Sinai Peninsula as a domestic insurgency waged by militant group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis has led to attacks against tourists and Egyptian security forces. The violence has spread from the peninsula to the Nile Delta and other population centers. But it was the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts on Feb. 16, reportedly by Islamic State-affiliated militants in Libya, that spurred al-Sisi's call for not only joint military operations but also a unified Arab military to take on regional pressures.

ΣΑΛΟΣ ΓΙΑ ΝΕΟ ΣΚΑΝΔΑΛΟ ΣΤΗ ΒΡΕΤΑΝΙΑ

Νέο πολιτικό σκάνδαλο δονεί τη Βρετανία μετά την αποκάλυψη ότι δύο πρώην υπουργοί Εξωτερικών και νυν βουλευτές του Εργατικού και του Συντηρητικού Κόμματος, ο Τζακ Στρο και ο Μάλκολμ Ρίφκιντ αντίστοιχα, δέχθηκαν έναντι αδράς αμοιβής να χρησιμοποιήσουν την πολιτική τους επιρροή προκειμένου να προωθήσουν μια ιδιωτική επιχείρηση.

Ο Τζακ Στρο ζήτησε αμοιβή 6.800 ευρώ ημερησίως για να χρησιμοποιήσει την πολιτική του επιρροή προκειμένου να προωθήσει την υποτιθέμενη επιχείρηση.
Ο Τζακ Στρο ζήτησε αμοιβή 6.800 ευρώ ημερησίως για να χρησιμοποιήσει την πολιτική του επιρροή προκειμένου να προωθήσει την υποτιθέμενη επιχείρηση.
Δημοσιογράφοι της «Daily Telegraph» και του δικτύου Channel 4, που υποδύονταν τους επιχειρηματίες από το Χονγκ Κονγκ, βιντεοσκόπησαν με κρυφή κάμερα τις επίμαχες συνομιλίες τις οποίες και δημοσιοποίησαν.