The four horsemen circling the European Council summit

Simultaneous crises are the new normal. Europe’s leaders must confront a quartet of challenges if they want to prevent the European Union falling apart.

Four horsemen will be circling around this week’s European Council. They represent four crises that threaten the EU: ‘Grexit’; the Mediterranean migration crisis; Russian aggression; and Britain’s threat to leave if the club is not reformed. Any of these issues could dominate the European Council’s agenda: each could alter the fundamental character of the Union. While none of them is particularly new – Greece's economic and financial woes have troubled the EU for six years – they are circling together and affecting each other.

Goldman's "Conspiracy Theory" Stunner: A Greek Default Is Precisely What The ECB Wants

Last week, we showed a curious thesis by Goldman, which asked if there is a new and "ominous" development in European currency swings, namely the emergence of what may be a "under the table" fight between the ECB and the Bundesbank on which bonds to monetize.

This is what Goldman said then:

the average maturity of ECB bond buying is around 8.0 years, in line with what Executive Board member Coeure said in his May 18 speech. However, while Italy and Spain see purchases that have an average maturity above that of the outstanding debt stock, Bundesbank buying has fallen short from the very beginning.... This kind of signal – from the key hawk in the Eurosystem – has the potential to undercut the credibility of ECB QE, since it weakens the portfolio balance channel.

Μυστικές συναντήσεις Ολάντ για το ενδεχόμενο Grexit

O Γάλλος πρόεδρος, Φρανσουά Ολάντ, οργάνωνε το 2012 μυστικές συναντήσεις μεταξύ Γάλλων αξιωματούχων, αλλά και με τη γερμανική αντιπολίτευση, χωρίς τη γνώση της καγκελαρίου Ανγκελα Μέρκελ, για να συζητηθούν οι συνέπειες από μια πιθανή έξοδο της Ελλάδας από τη ζώνη του ευρώ. Αυτό τουλάχιστον προκύπτει σύμφωνα με έγγραφο της αμερικανικής Υπηρεσίας Εθνικής Ασφαλείας (NSA) που έδωσε στη δημοσιότητα το Wikileaks.

WikiLeaks Files Said to Show N.S.A. Spied on French Leaders

WikiLeaks published documents late Tuesday that it says shows the United States National Security Agency eavesdropped on the last three French presidents.

There was no immediate confirmation of the accuracy of the documents released in collaboration with Libération, a left-leaning French newspaper, and the investigative website Mediapart.

Danish election results reflect a domestic identity crisis

Last week’s Danish election results, which saw the ruling Social Democrats ousted by a centre-right coalition that includes the far-right Danish People’s Party (PPP), reflect a growing domestic crisis of identity. While not unusual at the level of European national politics, the trend towards Euroskeptic populism is a signal of dissatisfaction with Denmark’s political governance.

Beyond Propaganda

This essay is adapted from the first in a series of publications by the Legatum Institute’s Transitions Forum on the politics of information in the 21st century.

Pity the poor propagandist! Back in the 20th century, it was a lot easier to control an authoritarian country’s hearts and minds. All domestic media could be directed out of a government office. Foreign media could be jammed. Borders were sealed, and your population couldn’t witness the successes of a rival system. You had a clear narrative with at least a theoretically enticing vision of social justice or national superiority, one strong enough to fend off the seductions of liberal democracy and capitalism. Anyone who disagreed could be isolated, silenced, and suppressed.

Το ζήτημα της πείνας: Πώς θα δοθεί ένα τέλος στον παγκόσμιο υποσιτισμό

Ένα αγόρι τρώει ζαχαροκάλαμο στο χωριό Fakirpara, περίπου 80 μίλια βορειοδυτικά της Καλκούτα στα ανατολικά της Ινδίας, στις 11 Οκτωβρίου 2007. PARTH SANYAL/REUTERS

Την περασμένη εβδομάδα, κατά την 41η σύνοδό τους, οι χώρες του G7 ανέλαβαν μια ασυνήθιστα συγκεκριμένη δέσμευση: Να δώσουν ένα τέλος στην πείνα και τον υποσιτισμό για 500 εκατομμύρια άτομα μέχρι το 2030. Πληροφορίες εκ των έσω υπονοούν ότι ο συγκεκριμένος στόχος αποτελούσε προσωπική προτεραιότητα της Άνγκελα Μέρκελ, της περιβόητης επιστημονικής Γερμανίδας καγκελαρίου που ήταν και οικοδεσπότης της εκδήλωσης. Ωστόσο, παρά την προσοχή για την παγκόσμια πείνα που δίνεται από την υψηλού επιπέδου πολιτική, κάτι που σίγουρα αποτελεί θετικό βήμα, η δέσμευση του G7 εξακολουθεί να είναι ημιτελής.

Trapped Between Assad, Israel, and al Qaeda

On June 5, a Druze sheikh in Qalb Lozeh, a village in Syria’s northwest Idlib province, sent out a desperate voice message over WhatsApp calling for help against fighters from the steadily approaching al-Nusra Front, al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate.

“They’ve been coming to our homes, and [they] want to remove our sons, our boys between 10 and 14 years old, and put them in a training camp for two months. We don’t know what they’re going to teach them, and they’re threatening us,” the sheikh said in the recording. “They want to take away our weapons.”

What Borders Mean to Europe

Europe today is a continent of borders. The second-smallest continent in the world has more than 50 distinct, sovereign nation-states. Many of these are part of the European Union. At the core of the EU project is an effort to reduce the power and significance of these borders without actually abolishing them — in theory, an achievable goal. But history is not kind to theoretical solutions.

Today, Europe faces three converging crises that are ultimately about national borders, what they mean and who controls them. These crises appear distinct: Immigration from the Islamic world, the Greek economic predicament, and the conflict in Ukraine would seem to have little to do with each other. But in fact they all derive, in different ways, from the question of what borders mean.

The eurozone's 'five presidents' report': An assessment

The long-awaited report rightly aims to complete a financial union in the eurozone, but over-emphasises structural reforms and underplays the need for stronger counter-cyclical policies.

The eurozone in its current institutional setup may not survive the next severe political or economic crisis, and needs reform. The presidents of the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Council, the European Parliament and the Eurogroup have now presented their widely anticipated report – the ‘five presidents’ report’ – on how to complete the monetary union. It contains some important proposals, such as a strong emphasis on completing the banking and capital markets unions. But two key aspects are missing: a more activist ECB in order to prevent future shortfalls in demand, and strongly counter-cyclical fiscal policies at the national level. What is more, the case for a convergence of structural policies in the eurozone is less strong than the report assumes.