Η μέθοδος της Μέρκελ: Η Γερμανία και η ελληνική κρίση

Αποσυναρμολόγηση του γλυπτού του ευρώ μπροστά από τα παλιά κεντρικά γραφεία της ΕΚΤ στην Φρανκφούρτη, 8 Ιουλίου 2015. Το γλυπτό έγινε από τον Γερμανό καλλιτέχνη Ottmar Hoerl το 2001. RALPH ORLOWSKI / REUTERS

«Αν αποτύχει το ευρώ, αποτυγχάνει η Ευρώπη». Αυτό το απόφθεγμα πρέπει να είναι η πιο συχνά αναφερόμενη πρόταση από την πιο ισχυρή πολιτικό της Ευρώπης, μια φιγούρα ελάχιστα γνωστή για την έκφραση ξεκάθαρων δηλώσεων ή σαφών δεσμεύσεων. Η επιτυχία της Γερμανίδας καγκελάριου Άνγκελα Μέρκελ κατά την διάρκεια των τελευταίων δέκα ετών (είναι ήδη η μακροβιότερη Γερμανίδα καγκελάριος μετά τον Konrad Adenauer και τον Helmut Kohl) αποδίδεται συχνά στην μυστηριώδη ικανότητά της να αφήνει τις πολιτικές εξελίξεις και τις συζητήσεις να ακολουθήσουν μια πορεία -και να παίρνει θέση μόνο όταν μπορεί να είναι βέβαιη ότι αυτή η θέση της θα είναι στην πλευρά των νικητών. Ωστόσο, στα μάτια των Γερμανών επικριτών της, η εμφανής δέσμευσή της για την διάσωση του ευρώ ό,τι κι αν συμβεί, την έχει κάνει ευάλωτη σε εκβιασμούς. Ιδίως ο Έλληνας πρωθυπουργός, Αλέξης Τσίπρας, έχει στοιχηματίσει ότι, παρ'όλη την ηθικολογία των γερμανικών ελίτ, η χώρα δεν θα θελήσει, τελικά, ένα Grexit. Και έτσι, όπως είναι τόσο συχνό στην ΕΕ, θα βρεθεί μια μεγάλη πολιτική παραμυθία που θα επιτρέψει σε όλους τους ενδιαφερόμενους να σώσουν κάπως το γόητρό τους. Αλλά ο Τσίπρας δεν πρέπει να είναι τόσο σίγουρος. Μια σειρά εξελίξεων -καθόλου λίγο βαθιές μεταμορφώσεις μέσα στην γερμανική πολιτική κουλτούρα που οι εταίροι της Γερμανίας έχουν μόλις αρχίσει να κατανοούν- κάνουν επικίνδυνο να βασίζεται κανείς στην Γερμανία για να κρατήσει την Ελλάδα.

Strategy in Real Time: Dueling with an Enemy That Moves

Strategy is a two-way street. But many commentators act as though formulating a strategy is the same as solving a chess problem. Chess problems are artificially constructed arrangements on a chessboard where the goal is to find a series of moves that leaves the other side no room to evade a checkmate within three or four turns. The sorts of conflicts bedeviling us these days, however, are more like the game of chess itself, in which there is no determinate, continuous series of moves that will guarantee victory every time. Each new contest depends on the actions of the other side, how we react to them, how they respond to our reactions, and so on.

Ignoring this aspect of strategy seems to contribute to the widespread view that victory in warfare amounts to the destruction of the enemy, a facile assumption that is all too unthinkingly held. "Defeating the enemy" may be the definition of victory in football, or even in chess for that matter, but not in warfare. Victory in war is the achievement of the war aim, and if, after Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, we still think that victory is simply the devastation of our adversaries, we have a lot of reflecting to do.

Russia reviews Baltic states’ independence, risks further backlash

In a fresh instance of saber rattling against the EU, Russia’s prosecutor-general has decided to review the legality of recognizing the Baltic States’ independence in 1991. While legal implications of the investigation will be minimal, the move will further increase tensions with the EU.

The Baltic States declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1990-91 and, after attempts to quell their ‘rebellion’ failed, were recognized by the Soviet Union’s newly created State Council in the last months of the Soviet empire.

Thomas Cromwell or the executioner's axe? Options for a Grexit

There are many excellent reasons, both economic and political, for European leaders to want to keep Greece in the eurozone. But if Greece and its creditors fail to reach a deal on a new assistance package this weekend, it will be hard to avoid a Grexit. The question is, how can that be managed with the least risk to the stability of the eurozone and the EU itself? Can a country legally leave, or be forced out of, the euro? The only obvious way is by withdrawing from the EU altogether. Neither Greece nor its European partners want this to happen. So EU lawyers are working against the clock trying to find a creative way to accommodate a Grexit if it becomes inevitable. This insight identifies five possibilities. None of these options are desirable. Some are barely legal. But if all else fails, one of them may have to be chosen. 

A Greek departure from the eurozone would be undesirable. It would maximise economic and geopolitical risks to both the EU and the currency union. But if an agreement is not found by the end of the emergency European Council meeting on Sunday July 12th, the EU could find itself in the unprecedented situation of having to manage a ‘Grexit’ (a Greek exit from the euro). In this case, whether Greece decides to leave voluntarily or the creditors choose to force the country out, EU lawyers will need to work out a solution to a seemingly unsolvable issue: nothing in the EU treaties allows for a country to leave the eurozone.

Why China's Stock Markets Matter

Analysis

• Beijing will continue to intervene where possible to prop up markets and market sentiment.
• A collapse of the stock market would likely increase deposits in ordinary bank accounts.
• This would compel Beijing to rely more heavily on banks to fuel growth and pressure China to accelerate financial liberalization efforts as a way to cultivate household consumption.

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The Shanghai Composite Index fell 6 percent on July 3, rounding out a 28 percent decline since June 12, when the country's stock markets peaked. The deterioration occurred despite intensive government efforts to stabilize prices and revive investor sentiment. Overt attempts by Beijing included cutting benchmark interest rates and reserve requirement ratios and loosening restrictions on investor access to margin loans, in addition to less overt moves, such as direct interventions to prop up the market with government-backed purchases of blue chip stocks. On Friday, in a clear bid to win investor confidence in its oversight abilities, the securities regulator announced it would investigate signs of potential market manipulation. Yet so far, Beijing's efforts have failed to achieve the desired effect of stimulating, or at least stabilizing, China's leading stock markets.

What are the geopolitical implications of Greece's euro drama?

 Greek and EU flags are waved at a pro-euro rally in front of the parliament building in Athens on Thursday. Photograph: UPI/Landov/Barcroft Media

The arrival in a week of more than 9,000 refugees in the Greek islands highlights the fact that Greece’s euro drama is being played out in a turbulent neighbourhood. “I have no doubt this will affect Europe, also in a geopolitical sense,” Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, told the European parliament this week.

Όταν εισάγουμε χαμομήλι από την Αίγυπτο....

Οι ελλείψεις σε βασικά προϊόντα που μέσα σε 10 μόλις ημέρες αρχίζουν να γίνονται εμφανείς λόγω και των capital controls, φανερώνουν με το χειρότερο τρόπο το επί δεκαετίες λανθασμένο παραγωγικό μοντέλο της οικονομίας.  

Αν και τα τελευταία χρόνια παρατηρείται μια σταδιακή άνθηση νέων εξαγωγικών αγροτικών δραστηριοτήτων σε υψηλής ποιότητας προϊόντα, η διάρθρωση της αγροτικής παραγωγής αναδεικνύει το μέγεθος των ευκαιριών που έχασε η χώρα τις τελευταίες δεκαετίες. Σύμφωνα με τον ΣΕΒ, τα τεράστια ποσά των αγροτικών επιδοτήσεων καθώς και η ευνοϊκή μεταχείριση από φορολογικής πλευράς του κλάδου δεν αξιοποιήθηκαν για μια αναδιάρθρωση της παραγωγής. 

Euro, Envisioned as Force for Unity, Becomes Weapon in Greek Crisis

As the Greek crisis escalated in recent days, Europe’s common currency crossed a line that could taint it forever.

A nut and herbs seller in a market in central Athens.

EIRINI VOURLOUMIS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

The crucial moment occurred when Greece’s debt dispute with other European countries became a fight to stay in the euro. The prospect of a country leaving the currency was once unthinkable. Europe’s goal is to form an “ever closer union” — and the euro’s creators expected the currency to play a driving role in that process.

The Troika’s secret agenda: Not saving Greece, but saving the capital of multinationals

On a daily basis Greece is being accused of a lack of willingness to reform, including tackling tax evasion and avoidance. In March, however, Greece introduced several measures to improve tax collection and to counter tax evasion and avoidance in a structural manner. But the Troika itself has asked the Greek government to repeal these same measures. In doing so it is practicing the opposite of what it is preaching.

In other words, the Troika and several European leaders are guilty of doublespeak. They are criticizing the Greek taxpaying ethic, meanwhile opposing any Greek measure aiming to restrict tax evasion by multinational enterprises and capital flight.