Ξεπερνώντας το αδιέξοδο του ελληνικού χρέους

Η Ελλάδα χρειάζεται αναδιάρθρωση χρέους. Σχετικά με αυτό, συμφωνούν όλο και περισσότερες φωνές. Ακόμη και το ΔΝΤ, αναγνωρίζει τώρα ότι το χρέος της Ελλάδας είναι μη βιώσιμο. Απαιτείται αναδιάρθρωση, επιμένει τώρα, για την λειτουργικότητα του τρίτου προγράμματος μεταξύ της χώρας και των θεσμών, που αυτή τη στιγμή τελειοποιείται.

Ωστόσο, η γερμανική κυβέρνηση αρνείται να συμφωνήσει στη μείωση χρέους, εάν απουσιάζουν προηγούμενες διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις. Η μείωση χρέους θα πρέπει να έρθει ως ανταμοιβή, επιμένει, για τις προηγούμενες ενέργειες στο διαρθρωτικό μέτωπο. Εάν παρασχεθεί τώρα, οι Έλληνες θα τα παρατήσουν, και το κίνητρο να προχωρήσουν στα σκληρά μεταρρυθμιστικά μέτρα, θα μειωθεί.

Low oil prices fuel political and economic instability

A year after the beginning of the biggest oil price slump in a decade, it is worthwhile to assess the current state of affairs and estimate the costs both for the global economy and the political stability of oil exporting countries.

The oil industry was caught unprepared by the sudden slump in oil prices in July 2014, which was subsequently accentuated by the OPEC’s decision to maintain its 30 million barrels per day quota in order to retain market share and damage the booming US shale oil industry.

How China's Currency Policies Will Change the World

The recent fluctuations in China's currency typify the best and worst of a globalized world, where developments in one place can instantly change the political and financial calculations of governments in others. For most of human history, the communities, cultures and economies of the world existed independently of one another, separated as they were by vast distances and difficult terrain. It would, for instance, take months or even years for news of China to reach Europe across the great Silk Road trading route during the height of its use some 1,000 years ago. Even then, the communities along that route could hardly be considered entirely coherent.

But that is clearly no longer the case. And now, as China continues to adjust the yuan, markets throughout the world will react accordingly, even as they react differently. 

What Kind of State Will Israel Be?

If you’re at all interested in the future of the State of Israel, you need to read the speech that Israeli President Reuven Rivlin delivered to the 15th Annual Herziliya Conference in early June on what he termed the “real Israel” — a country he argues is now divided into four tribes growing increasingly apart.

As far as I can tell, the speech received almost no attention in the U.S. media. I follow Israel closely, but I missed it, too. Why? Most likely because when it comes to Israel, the Iranian nuclear issue has sucked up all the available oxygen and maybe because everyone and his brother has been crying wolf on the demographic challenges Israel faces for a very long time.

The Undiplomats: Right-wing populists and their foreign policies

• As right-wing populist parties have shifted from being marginal players to important political actors in Europe, they have also turned their attention from domestic to foreign and security policy, in ways that sometimes threaten European interests. Mainstream parties need to find effective ways to counter them.

• Right-wing populist parties disagree on many foreign policy issues. They range from anti-American to pro-American, from Russophile to Russosceptic and from isolationist to internationalist. But they are united on some points, notably euroscepticism. They oppose further EU enlargement and, especially, Turkish membership of the EU.
  

Lighten the load

Greece’s debt burden needs to be reduced, but maturity extensions on existing loans are not enough for Greece to return to the markets.

The IMF says that Greece’s debt burden is unsustainable. That is why the IMF will not contribute to the third assistance package (recently agreed by Europe and Greece) unless Greek debt is reduced. The problem is that an outright cut in the value of the debt – a haircut – is politically unacceptable, especially to Germany. The other option – extending the maturity of existing official loans further and lowering interest payments – is not enough for Greece to return to the markets. In order for this to be possible, the eurozone needs to refrain from threats of Grexit in case of a renewed crisis; to commit to making Greek debt sustainable even if economic growth comes in below expectations; and to make new government bonds issued to the market senior to existing official loans, such that new government bonds are serviced before official debt. These measures would also be in the interest of the creditors themselves: only if investors, businesses and consumers feel confident about Greece’s euro membership, can Greece grow and repay its debt.

Europe Rethinks the Schengen Agreement

Forecast

• Rising immigration and fragile economic recovery in Europe will reduce political support for the Schengen Agreement, which eliminates border controls among member states.
• The Schengen Agreement will likely be reformed to make room for countries to tighten their border controls more frequently.
• Friction between Schengen members and other countries will remain, as will tension within the bloc itself.

The UK response to the plight of Syrian refugees is a national embarrassment

Europe once stood for human rights, collective action and the reconstruction of lives shattered by war. Not anymore. Faced with a refugee crisis that leaves the lifeless body of a three year old Syrian toddler washed up on a beach, 70 dead in the back of a van on an Austrian lay-by, and thousands drowned in the Mediterranean, Europe’s leaders are behaving like rabbits caught in the headlights.

The time has come for the EU’s citizens to draw a line in the sand. We need a plan of action commensurate with the scale of the displacement. And we need a public mobilisation in defence of our shared values. This crisis is also about us.

"A Debt Relief is Inevitable"

Do you consider that the current Greek bailout deal is going to improve economic and social conditions in the country?

Marc Chesney 
Professor of Finance
University of Zurich

No, on the contrary. The situation in Greece is catastrophic. Implementation of the policy imposed by the "Troika" has generated unemployment, despair and misery. The wave of privatization generates an absurd situation in which the country's key assets are wasted. Most of the so-called European financial help to Greece goes back to its creditors or is unsuccessfully used for the recapitalization of Greek banks. The debt level is not sustainable. 

Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq

The war on terror, that campaign without end launched 14 years ago by George Bush, is tying itself up in ever more grotesque contortions. On Monday the trial in London of a Swedish man, Bherlin Gildo, accused of terrorism in Syria, collapsed after it became clear British intelligence had been arming the same rebel groups the defendant was charged with supporting.

 Illustration by Eva Bee

The prosecution abandoned the case, apparently to avoid embarrassing the intelligence services. The defence argued that going ahead withthe trial would have been an “affront to justice” when there was plenty of evidence the British state was itself providing “extensive support” to the armed Syrian opposition.