Το «Ημερολόγιο» ενός μικρού ανδρός

Ο δικτάτορας Μεταξάς εν μέσω των οργανωμένων της ΕΟΝ. Το «Ημερολόγιό» του είναι αποκαλυπτικό για την προσωπικότητά του

Εβδομήντα εννιά χρόνια από την κήρυξή της, η δικτατορία της 4ης Αυγούστου εξακολουθεί να προσφέρει υλικό σε ιστορικούς και πολιτικούς αναλυτές. Μάλιστα εδώ και μερικά χρόνια έχει επιχειρηθεί από ένα ρεύμα ιστορικής αναθεώρησης ακόμα και μια άτυπη «αποκατάσταση» της δικτατορίας, μέσα από ποικίλους συλλογισμούς και αναφορές. Για την ακρίβεια είναι ο ίδιος ο δικτάτορας Ιωάννης Μεταξάς ο οποίος αντιμετωπίζεται από μερίδα ιστορικών ερευνητών αλλά και μέσων ενημέρωσης ως σημαντικός «πολιτικός άνδρας», με αξιόλογη δράση και ακόμα πιο αξιοπρόσεκτη πολιτική σκέψη.

Nuclear Industry Future Far From Clear

My uncle was 17 years old, proud of his martial Prussian heritage, when he joined the U.S. Marines, just in time to make the landing on Guadalcanal. He made it through that encounter, was later wounded on Okinawa, recovered, and was training for the invasion of the Japanese mainland when Hiroshima and Nagasaki went up in atomic flames. When we buried him a few years ago, the Marine Honor Guard spokesman on hand said that most of the 500,000 Purple Hearts minted for the invasion were still in inventory. That is fortunate for Americans, though it meant woes a thousand fold had come raining down upon the Land of the Rising Sun.

Greece: The Need for a More Collaborative and Flexible Response on Migrants

Lesvos, a Greek island in the northern Aegean Sea, is currently one of the most popular arrival points for migrants not only in Greece but in Europe. Roughly half of migrants arriving in Greece so far this year have come to Lesvos, which at some points is located less than 10 kilometers from the Turkish coast. Approximately 1,000 migrants have been arriving on the shores of Lesvos each day. These are record numbers for the island of 86,000 people.

Turkey Goes to War

One month ago, Abu Mohammed al-Halabi painted a dismal picture of his fighters’ struggles against the Islamic State along a crucial geographical corridor north of the Syrian city of Aleppo. The jihadis had killed three of his men in a nighttime ambush in mid-June while using night-vision goggles more advanced than anything his group possessed. His brigade had been fighting for 10 days straight without any injection of money or equipment. If this continued for another week, the beleaguered rebel commander told Foreign Policy, “anything could happen” — even a complete collapse of rebel lines.

Who’s Nexit?

Which will be the next eurozone domino to fall? With Greece enjoying a temporary lull in its apparently permanent crisis, we can take a moment to look around its neighborhood at other candidates for trouble. There are several — and the euro’s future looks far from bright.

Greece ran into trouble mainly because it should never have been in the eurozone in the first place. Its governments couldn’t balance their budgets, and its economic cycle was far out of sync with those of the eurozone’s leading lights. When Germany grew, Greece shrank, and vice versa. Using the same monetary policy in both countries made no sense at all.

Quantum Geopolitics

Forecasting the shape the world will take in several years or decades is an audacious undertaking. There are no images to observe or precise data points to anchor us. We can only create a picture, and a fuzzy one at best. This is, after all, our basic human empirical instinct: to draw effortlessly from the vivid imagery of our present world and past experiences while we squint and hesitate before faint, blobby images of the future.

Greek foreign policy: The next ruin?

The economic consequences of Greece leaving the eurozone would be serious for the Greek people and the rest of the EU. The foreign policy implications could be equally bad. Russia policy aside, the Syriza-led coalition has been part of the European mainstream. If a post-Grexit Greece lurched from left-wing populist to right-wing nationalist government, its foreign policy could be an even bigger problem for Europe. 

The EU and Greece have finally agreed on a bail-out deal. But, as Christian Odendahl and John Springford have written recently (‘The Greek bailout deal resolves nothing’, July 13th), its flaws are so serious that it is likely to fail eventually. Before EU leaders steel themselves to expel Greece from the eurozone, they should think about Greece’s geopolitical importance (and not just its flirtation with Russia). 

Collapsing currency signals need for reform in Colombia

The Colombian economy is faltering after years of oil-driven economic bonanza. Now, more than ever, a government-led national discussion to restructure and strengthen strategic import-competing industries is necessary.

In a span of twelve months, the Colombian economy has been rocked. On July 24, 2014, the Colombian peso (COP) was trading at 1,848 COP to the U.S. dollar (USD). Exactly one year later, the peso was trading at 2,861 to the dollar—a 36% depreciation. The massive depreciation of the peso is caused by both external and internal factors and exemplifies the broader structural problems hindering Colombian potential for growth.

Δανείζοντας στην Αθήνα έναν κουβά με χρυσό

Διαδηλωτής ανεμίζει την ιρλανδική σημαία σε διαδήλωση ενάντια στις πολιτικές λιτότητας στο κέντρο του Δουβλίνου, στις 31 Ιανουαρίου 2015. CATHAL MCNAUGHTON / REUTERS

Μετά από τρεις μακρές εβδομάδες που ήταν κλειστές, οι τράπεζες στην Ελλάδα έχουν αρχίσει να ανοίγουν τις πόρτες τους σε ένα ανυπόμονο κοινό. Μετά από εντατικές διαπραγματεύσεις διάσωσης, η Ελλάδα έλαβε ένα ενδιάμεσο δάνειο 7 δισ. ευρώ για να πληρώσει τα 6,8 δισ. ευρώ του χρέους που χρωστούσε την περασμένη εβδομάδα στους επίσημους πιστωτές της. Ουσιαστικά, πρόκειται για ένα νέο δάνειο για να ξεπληρώσει το παλιό. Ή ακριβέστερα, ξεχρεώνει το παλιό δάνειο πληρώνοντας κι άλλους τόκους. Αλλά το τέλος του αδιεξόδου έχει τουλάχιστον φέρει ξανά κάποια ομαλότητα στην Ελλάδα. Οι επιταγές μπορούν τώρα να εξαργυρωθούν. Περιορισμένες μεταφορές χρημάτων είναι και πάλι δυνατές. Οι αναλήψεις περιορίζονται πλέον στα 60 ευρώ ανά άτομο ανά ημέρα, αν και οι έλεγχοι κεφαλαίων παραμένουν στην θέση τους και θα είναι έτσι για κάποιο χρονικό διάστημα. Προς το παρόν, η μέγιστη ανάληψη είναι 420 ευρώ ανά ημέρα, και τα χρήματα δεν μπορούν ακόμη να βγουν από την χώρα χωρίς έγκριση από το Υπουργείο Οικονομικών. Αυτό έχει το κόστος της ακόμη περισσότερης δημοσιονομικής πειθαρχίας για τους Έλληνες, παρ’όλο που συνολικά η χώρα έχει ήδη υπομείνει ένα επίπεδο λιτότητας ανάλογο μόνο σε περιόδους πολέμου ή βαριάς ύφεσης.

How the US Outplayed China in the South China Sea

What separates the aggressive move from the modest one?  Or the unnecessarily risky move from the prudent one?  Context.  Last week, the recently appointed commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Admiral Scott Swift, joined a routine surveillance mission in the South China Sea conducted by a U.S. P-8 aircraft.  Four-star admirals don’t routinely join such frontline missions, of course, which may lead some to view the move as confrontational and risky.  To the Chinese, it was “irresponsible and dangerous.”

Image Credit: U.S. Navy Photo

But this was a single well-played move in an iterative and indirect competition with high stakes.  The Chinese are understandably upset because it shifts the terms of the next move in their disfavor, creating a circumstance that requires them to adapt expectations.  Moves like the one taken last week, putting a high-level U.S. commander in harm’s way but in a highly anodyne way, help (temporarily at least) stack the deck in favor of the United States and the status quo.