Alex Salmond said Europe's "access to Norwegian waters" could be affected if Scotland loses its EU membership Photo: Reuters
Families in Scotland will be faced with a £600 bill if the country votes for
independence, ministers will warn this week.
The Treasury is preparing to publish an analysis paper detailing the “cost of
independence” in the event of a “yes” vote in September’s referendum.
Ministers will warn that Scottish households will suffer “public spending cuts
and tax rises” if the country leaves the United Kingdom.
Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, will accuse the Alex
Salmond, the Scottish First Minister, of refusing to “tell anyone” how much
it will cost taxpayers to set up a new independent nation.
The Treasury will say that an independent Scotland will “face a substantially
greater fiscal challenge than if the country remains a part of the UK”.
The analysis will draw on research which estimates that it could cost up to 1 per cent of a country's GDP to establish the new systems required to run a newly independent state.
In Scotland's case, 1 per cent of its GDP would see taxpayers having to pay a £1.5 billion tax bill, equivalent to £600 per household, the Treasury said.
Academics from the Institute for Government and the London School of Economics have also warned that it could cost an independent Scotland £2.7 billion to set up the new departments that would be required to run the country.
The Treasury has also warned that a new benefit system would cost £400 million and that setting up a tax regime would cost Scotland as much as £562 million.
Meanwhile, it estimates the costs of implementing key independence policy proposals such as childcare reforms and cuts to air passenger duty and corporation tax at least £1.6 billion each year.
Mr Alexander said: “The Scottish Government is trying to leave the UK but it won't tell anyone how much the set-up surcharge is for an independent Scotland.
“As part of the UK, Scotland gains from a strong and stable tax and benefits system and our comprehensive analysis, published this week, sets out how much better off Scottish taxpayers are; that's why we're better off together.”
Gavin Brown, the Scottish Conservatives finance spokesman, said that Mr Salmond’s financial estimates had now been “discredited”.
He said: "Look through the Scottish Government's discredited white paper and you will search in vain for any set-up costs for an independent Scotland. It's yet another issue that simply hasn't been factored in by the Nationalists.
"People in Scotland are entitled to know what these costs are before they go to vote in September.
"But the truth is that Alex Salmond is so obsessive about separation that he won't deal with the facts and the costs involved.
"It means the choice facing people is a secure future with the UK versus the complete uncertainty of a post-independence Scotland."
Mr Salmond called on the Treasury to withdraw its "misleading claim".
He said: "The Treasury are either guilty of a horrendous blunder or it is a deliberate and deeply dishonest attempt to deceive - either way, it leaves the Treasury's analysis without a shred of credibility, and either way they should withdraw this misleading claim."
John Swinney, Scotland’s Finance Secretary, said that the Treasury analysis is “deeply flawed”.
“Scotland is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, more prosperous per head than the UK, France and Japan - but we need the powers of independence to ensure that wealth properly benefits everyone in our society,” he said.
He added: “Much of the infrastructure needed for an independent country already exists, and Scottish taxpayers already pay their fair share for all devolved and reserved services - while Scotland also stands to inherit a fair share of joint assets, valued at around 1.3 trillion dollars.”
