Τρίτη 22 Απριλίου 2014

How 9 Countries Saw Inflation Explode Into Hyperinflation

nicaragua cordoba currency

A 1,000 córdoba banknote, which was re-printed with a value of 200,000 córdobas during the inflationary period of the late 1980s.

Hyperinflationary episodes have appeared several times over the past century — 55, to be exact — as the world's nations have experimented with fiat currencies backed by the full faith and credit of the governments that issue them.

At times, that full faith and credit has been misplaced — and holders of unstable currencies have been caught empty-handed in countries all over the world.

Often, this is can be a recurring theme among developing nations like those in Latin America during the debt crisis that struck the region in the 1980s.

Even some of the largest economies in the world today, though — like China, Germany, and France — have suffered devastating hyperinflationary episodes.

A major historical precursor of hyperinflation is war that destroys the capital stock of an economy and dramatically reduces output — but the misplaced monetary and fiscal policies that ensue are almost always part of the story.

Economists Steve Hanke and Nicholas Krus compiled data on all 56 recorded hyperinflations in a 2012 study. We summarize 9 of the worst episodes here.

 

Hungary: August 1945 - July 1946


Daily inflation rate: 207 percent
Prices doubled every: 15 hours
Story: Hungary was economically devastated by WWII. Owing to its unfortunate status as a warzone, estimates indicate 40 percent of Hungary's capital stock was destroyed in the conflict. Before this, it had engaged in a wild, debt-fueled ramp up in production to support the German war effort, but Germany never paid for the goods.

When Hungary signed a peace treaty with the Allies in 1945, it was ordered to pay the Soviets massive reparations, which accounted for 25-50 percent of Hungary's budget during its hyperinflationary episode. Meanwhile, the country's monetary policy was essentially co-opted by the Allied Control Commission.

Hungarian central bankers warned that printing money to pay the bills would not end well, but "the Soviets, who dominated the Commission, turned a deaf ear to these warnings, which led some to conclude that the hyperinflation was designed to achieve a political objective–the destruction of the middle class" (Bomberger and Makinen 1983).

 

Zimbabwe: March 2007 - November 2008



Daily inflation rate: 98 percent
Prices doubled every: 25 hours
Story: Zimbabwe's hyperinflation was preceded by a long, grinding decline in economic output that followed Robert Mugabe's land reforms of 2000-2001, through which land was expropriated largely from white farmers and redistributed to the majority black populace. This led to a 50 percent collapse in output over the next nine years.
Socialist reforms and a costly involvement in Congo's civil war led to outsized government budget deficits. At the same time, the Zimbabwean population was declining as people fled the country. These two opposing factors of increased government spending and a decreasing tax base caused the government to resort to monetization of its fiscal deficit.

 

Yugoslavia/Republika Srpska: April 1992 - January 1994




Daily inflation rate: 65 percent
Prices doubled every: 34 hours
Story: The fall of the Soviet Union led to a decreased international role for Yugoslavia –formerly a key geopolitical player connecting East and West – and its ruling Communist party eventually came under the same pressure as the Soviets did. This led to a breakup of Yugoslavia into several countries along ethnic lines and subsequent wars over the following years as the newly-formed political entities sorted out their independence.

In the process, trade among regions of the former Yugoslavia collapsed, and industrial output followed. At the same time, an international embargo was placed on Yugoslavian exports, which further crushed output. 

Petrovic, Bogetic, and Vujosevic (1998) explain that the newly-formed Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, in contrast with other states that broke away like Serbia and Croatia, retained much of the bloated bureaucracy that existed before the split, contributing to the federal deficit. In an attempt to monetize this and other deficits, the central bank lost control of money creation and caused hyperinflation.

Weimar Germany: August 1922 - December 1923




Daily inflation rate: 21 percent
Prices doubled every: 3 days, 17 hours
Story: The hyperinflation experienced in Weimar Germany in the early 1920s followed its defeat in World War One a few years earlier. As a result of the war, Germany was required to pay large reparations to the victors to make up for the costs incurred by the winning side.

However, Germany was not allowed to pay the reparations with its currency at the time, the Papiermark, which had already weakened significantly during the war on account of the fact that Germany financed its war effort entirely through borrowed funds.

In order to pay the reparations in a currency other than the Papiermark, Weimar Germany was forced to sell large amounts of the mark in exchange for a foreign currencies that were eligible as payments. When the payments came due in the summer of 1921, a policy of selling the mark to buy foreign currencies at any price led to runaway hyperinflation as the mark was severely devalued.

Greece: May 1941 - December 1945




Daily inflation rate: 18 percent
Prices doubled every: 4 days, 6 hours
Story: Greece's fiscal budget balance swung from a 271-million drachma surplus in 1939 to a 790-million drachma deficit in 1940 due to the onset of World War Two (foreign trade fell dramatically). This set the stage for an already-deteriorating fiscal position by the time Greece was invaded by the Axis powers at the end of 1940.

The additional costs on Greece imposed by the "puppet government" of Axis powers that controlled the country during its occupation included supporting 400,000 Axis soldiers stationed there and a big indemnity owed to the occupiers.

Furthermore, national income in Greece was slashed from 67.4 billion drachma in 1938 to 20 billion drachma by 1942. As tax revenues plummeted, Greece resorted to monetization at the central bank to pay the aforementioned expenditures and finance the rest of its deficit.

 

China: October 1947 - May 1949




Daily inflation rate: 14 percent
Prices doubled every: 5 days, 8 hours
Story: After World War Two, China was divided by civil war. Nationalists and Communists battled for control of the country and introduced competing currencies in the process, leaving China's monetary system fragmented among ten major mediums of exchange in 1948.
Currency took center stage at times during the conflict – Campbell and Tullock (1954) explained that the three governments (including the Japanese occupiers) engaged in "monetary warfare" by attempting to undermine opposing currencies in various ways.

To fund the conflict, the Nationalists resorted to running huge budget deficits, which they eventually looked to cover by printing money, leading to runaway hyperinflation. (this was preceded by abandonment of the silver standard in China in 1935). They even got the Taiwanese central bank involved with the monetization scheme, which caused hyperinflation in Taiwan as well.

Peru: July 1990 - August 1990




Daily inflation rate: 5 percent
Prices doubled every: 13 days, 2 hours
Story: Peru had a long battle with inflation in the latter half of the 20th century. During the first half of the 1980s, Fernando Belaunde Terry was president, and Peru was faced with austerity policies imposed by IMF lenders following the Latin American financial crisis that began early in the decade.
Economist Thayer Watkins says the Belaunde Terry administration gave the appearance that it was complying with the reforms recommended by the IMF, when in reality, it was not. The economy was suffering stagflation at the time, and it was blamed on IMF austerity policies by the electorate, even though those policies weren't actually being followed.

This led to the election of Alan Garcia in 1985 as president. Garcia enacted populist economic reforms that only served to weaken the economy and shut Peru out of international credit markets. Faced with a lack of access to credit and deteriorating economic conditions, sustained high inflation became hyperinflation in Peru.

 

France: May 1795 - November 1796




Daily inflation rate: 5 percent
Prices doubled every: 15 days, 2 hours
Story: The French Revolution (1789-1799) came after a period in which France had run up substantial debts from fighting wars, including the war for U.S. independence from Great Britain.
One of the major economic policies of the French Revolution was the nationalization of land formerly owned by the Catholic Church. The Church was seen as an easy target for asset expropriation because they owned a lot of land yet had relatively little political influence in the new regime.

The government then issued assignats to the public – notes that essentially amounted to a land-backed currency – which were supposed to be redeemable for the land by note-holders at a future date. However, the government ended up issuing way too many notes in an attempt to close the deficit, devaluing the assignats and leading to runaway hyperinflation.

Nicaragua: June 1986 - March 1991




Daily inflation rate: 4 percent
Prices doubled every: 16 days, 10 hours
Story: In 1979, Nicaragua underwent a revolution that found the communist Sandinistas in power. This came against the backdrop of a global recession and a financial crisis across much of Latin America sparked by record high debt levels and the inability by nations to service those debts.
The Nicaraguan economy was ravaged by the revolution – GDP contracted by 34 percent cumulatively during 1978-1979. When the Sandinistas took power, they nationalized large parts of the economy, further contributing to the economic turmoil and hindering a robust recovery.

In the face of this, the Nicaraguan government turned to expansionary fiscal policy and foreign borrowing to stimulate domestic demand. This spending accelerated in the latter half of the decade to finance a war with the opposing Contras. While strong capital controls and a fixed exchange rate kept inflation at bay initially, 1985 economic reform moving away from such policies unleashed the suppressed inflation in the Nicaraguan economy.

WEIMAR: The Most Infamous Hyperinflation Horror Story

The inflation's roots were in World War One, which Germany financed with outsized budget deficits

Germany hoped that it would quickly win the war and reap bounty from the nations it conquered, which – to the government – justified the use of the printing press to fund it:
It may have been true — there is no reason to doubt it — that a short, sharp war and a speedy victory in 1914 had been both hoped for and expected.
During the war, the German government used extensive propaganda to hide the inflation from the population 
To make things worse, the Treaty of Versailles that ended the conflict imposed huge reparations on Germany

Not only did the Treaty of Versailles impose reparation demands that Germany would never realistically be able to repay, but it also annexed German territory and required the army to fire hundreds of thousands of soldiers:
  
In March 1921, France occupied German ports because they couldn't make reparations payments

Duisberg, Germany
Lord D'Abernon, the British ambassador to Berlin, warned the Allies that Germany would not be able to repay, but France insisted, and then occupied German ports

 Meanwhile, amid the economic gloom of the lower and middle classes, the rich were spending money like crazy



To avoid high taxes, the rich instead spent as much money that they could. However, it highlighted the class divide in Germany, where lower income earners were having trouble getting by
Meanwhile, anyone who could get their hands on foreign currency was selling the mark


Goods were flying off the shelves of shops as people tried to protect themselves against the falling value of the currency
The relationship between the strong mark and increased bankruptcies also highlighted class tension



Owners of large industrial conglomerates benefitted from the inflation, so they constantly reminded the populace that amid the economic chaos, employment was still very high
  
Then, in June of 1922, the German foreign minister, who was in favor of paying reparations, was assassinated

Walter Rathenau 

Walter Rathenau was a the German foreign minister, and he was often linked to the unpopular stance that Germany should find a way to pay its reparations. He was not trusted by the right-wingers in government.
Rathenau, a Jew like Erzberger, had just undergone, like Erzberger, a vitriolic attack in the Reichstag from the Rightist leader Dr Helfferich
And anti-Semitism in Germany was rising in general



The consul in Frankfort, Germany described a disturbing trend on the rise in 1922:
It is no exaggeration to say that cultured German men and women of high social standing openly advocate the political murder of Jews as a legitimate weapon of defence. They admit, it is true, that the  murder of Rathenau was of doubtful advantage ... but they say there are others who must go so that Germany shall be saved. Even in Frankfort, with a prepondering Jewish population, the movement is so strong that Jews of social standing are being asked to resign their appointments on the boards of companies  ...
Then, in the middle of the crisis, the German government took an inopportune holiday, which sent the mark plunging again
  
Meanwhile, working class wages were rising faster than inflation, which squeezed the middle class

The disadvantaged middle class was the class that maintained communication with the outside world, so foreigners' view of the domestic situation in Germany was especially downbeat:

Since these were fixed according to the average rate paid to [a chauffeur's] class of worker, [the chauffeur] was not suffering unduly except in so far as wage rises, a monthly occurrence by this time, always lagged a little behind price rises which took place weekly, if not daily. This was the case for the vast mass of artisans and workmen, but of course...the middle class, including officials and journalists, were far from being in the same satisfactory position. It was from this latter group...that foreigners mostly derived their information, which was why the accounts of the incidence of inflation published abroad were almost unrelievedly gloomy.
The soaring inflation led to currency chaos as everyone began to issue their own forms of money


There was a major shortage of cash in spite of the German central bank's wild expansion of the money supply. As a result, employers began issuing IOUs to workers all over
In January, France occupied the Ruhr, Germany's coal and resource-rich industrial region as part of sanctions for not meeting reparation payments. German workers in the Ruhr resisted by striking

The domestic situation in Germany resulting from the French occupation led to a full-blown food emergency by August of 1923

Seeing the waning confidence of German workers in the Ruhr and Hitler's rise to power in the Bavarian region, the German chancellor took decisive action to maintain control of the situation:

On September 26 [Chancellor Stresemann] suspended seven articles of the Weimar constitution, himself declared a State of Emergency...Germany had become a military dictatorship, no less, and by the choice, at that, of a largely Socialist cabinet. The country was divided into seven military districts, with a local military dictator over each. Simultaneously President Ebert announced the end of passive resistance in the Ruhr.
  
Finally, in November of 1923, the German government took action to stabilize the currency



The German government set up the Rentenbank to issue a new currency, the Rentenmark, which would be backed by land and industrial goods.
The Rentenmark finally stabilized the German currency:

As it was, the confidence trick worked. The Rentenmark, the stopgap designed to shift the 1923 harvest, became the weapon which held the field for the billion-mark note until the Reichsmark was brought in a year later. 'On the basis', said Bresciani-Turroni, 'of the simple fact that the new paper money had a different name from the old, the public thought it was something different from the paper mark ... The new money was accepted, despite the fact that it was an unconvertible paper currency.It  was held and not spent as rapidly.
And the next month, in December, the food shortages of the summer finally began to recede 
However, after a recovery in 1924, a whole new crisis hit Germany in 1925 – mass unemployment



The strengthened currency and subsiding hyperinflationary pressures once again brough German industry to its knees as several firms plunged into bankruptcy, and unemployment soared
And this shock brought increasing divergence between the fortunes of the middle and lower classes



With the new crisis, the tables were turned – the lower classes found themselves unemployed while the middle classes did relatively well
  
But post-war Germany never fully recovered, and mass unemployment eventually allowed Hitler to rise to power


Hitler leveraged the mass unemployment to gain support for the Nazi party and quickly rose to political power in the 1930s:
To say that inflation caused Hitler, or by extension that a similar inflation elsewhere than in a Weimar Germany could produce other Right or Left wing dictatorships, is to wander into quagmires of irrelevant historical analogy...On the other hand, the vast unemployment of the early 1930s gave Hitler the votes he needed. Just as the scale of that unemployment was part of the economic progression originating in the excesses of the inflationary years, so the considerable successes of the Nazi party immediately after stabilisation and immediately before the recession were linked (pace the observations of the Consul-General Clive) with its advances in 1922 and 1923.


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