The meaning of Assad's fall to Israel

The strategic importance to the West of what will be Assad’s defeat and a Syrian Sunni victory is most probably not completely understood by the mainstream. Contrary to what many believe for the Syrian opposition that it is a homogenous body which fights for its democratic rights, the truth lies in the fact that the Syrian long suppressed Sunni population is craving to overthrow the Shiite Alawite to rule Syria. 

Tectonic changes could emerge for the region from a Sunni victory in Syria. Basically, it would mean the loss of Iran's only ally in the region and one of Hezbollah’s vital supporters. In all probability, the shiitic Iran as well as the Lebanese Hezbollah would be isolated. The irony is that even though this seems like a favourable scenario for Israel, in fact this could mark Israel’s isolation in the Middle East too.

Behind closed doors, leaders in Israel fear the fall of Assad could lead to the rise of  a “common front” of Sunni states like Turkey, Syria and Egypt, which would circle Israel; a “front” that would be favourably treated by the rest of the Sunni oil-producer Sunni states, like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Actually, this would be the first time that Israel would face a block with access to western NATO military technology through Turkey. It is noteworthy that until recently these were semi-friendly regimes to Israel that toughened their attitude. 

No question, Assad’s regime has long been hostile to Israel but this is a manageable and moderately weak threat. In fact, Israel had maintained an understanding with President al-Assad, which came down to Assad restraining Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel turning a blind eye to Syrian influence in Lebanon. Thus, a Sunni dominated Syria would deprive Israel from keeping its major enemies divided.

Even if this scenario fails the fact that an enormous and dangerous arsenal waits there to be looted makes the Israeli authorities nervous enough. It is no wonder Israeli warplanes have struck Syria to destroy advanced anti-aircraft and ground-to-ground missile caches, which were in transition to Hezbollah.

There is always the chance that Assad would fall but fighting would go on involving various players such as the Free Syrian Army, Al-Qaeda and militias backed by Iran or others. It is rather questionable whether the frail stability in the Golan Heights would survive a Lebanese- style regime in Syria. In fact Israel has changed its defensive philosophy at the Syrian borders for fear of jihadists from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other regions penetrating the Israeli soil. They are already experiencing jihadist extremism in Sinai the idea of facing the same predicament at the borders with Syria is bewildering.

It seems like unrest in Syria, more that any other event in the Arab Spring endangers the already fragile balance of power in the Middle East; and this is a fact the Israeli authorities acknowledge. Comments like the one made by Israeli Major-General Amir Eshel that if Assad falls Israel might have to take actions on a broad large scale for various reasons could not have described the situation better. 

by Elpiniki Karakosta