Πέμπτη 11 Σεπτεμβρίου 2014

Possible Impact of Expanding SCO

At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) foreign ministers’ meeting held on July 31, 2014 at Dushanbe, Tajikistan, a decision has been taken to formally invite India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia as Member States at its next summit in September. China’s reluctance to concede to India’s admission has been the stumbling block in India’s admission in an otherwise consenting regional grouping. Coming barely a week before the US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel’s visit to New Delhi, the move is significant in terms of the geo-political implications that it holds for South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East besides its effect on the US efforts to involve India as its strategic partner in its rebalancing strategy in Asia-Pacific.
SCO is a regional grouping with China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as its member states. India, Pakistan, Iran, Mongolia and Afghanistan are the observer states while Belarus, Sri Lanka and Turkey enjoy the status of dialogue partners. ASEAN, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Turkmenistan are guest attendances. In 2004, it was conferred the observers’ status at the United Nations (UN). Called the NATO of the East less the military component, the organization’s objectives primarily relate to security related concerns which are often described as being terrorism, separatism and extremism besides economic cooperation. It has its secretariat in Beijing and a Regional Antiterrorism Structure (RATS) established in Tashkent, Uzbekistan which is operational since 2004. It analyses regional terrorist movements, exchanges information about terrorist threats and advises on counter-terrorist policies. It has also signed an agreement with the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

The grouping with the new additions will have four nuclear powers and Iran may well be on the road to achieve that status. China, Russia and India are amongst the top four with the world’s largest standing armies. An important ingredient of SCO’s economic cooperation is energy, in which Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Iran are big exporters while China and India are significant importers. At the Shanghai June 2006 Summit, Putin announced his intention to establish within the SCO, an ‘Energy Club’, uniting energy-producing and consuming states, transit countries and private companies, with the purpose of coordinating energy strategies and strengthening energy security. On July 2007, 2003, this ‘Energy Club’ was established in Moscow.

Geopolitically, India’s entry into SCO will strengthen India’s standing in its neighbourhood. A strong SCO may be able to impede NATO’s expansion eastwards avoiding conflicts as in the case of Ukraine. With an enlarged SCO China would attempt to exert its influence in the region and use its weight to get an entry into the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The attempt combined with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan would impact US footprint in the Central and South Asian region.
In case the long awaited US-Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) fails to fructify, the reasons for which could be many, it may further impact US position in the region. Russia on the other hand may want to balance China’s growing political and economic clout in the region with India’s support. Growing signs of Iraq and Syria hedging closer to Russia with Iran forming a part of the Organisation could have a bearing on US influence in West Asia. Once a part of the organisation, how far India will be able to support US in its pursuit of ‘Asian Pivot’ beyond its self-interest is a major question. Does the US withdrawing its earlier invitation to Modi for addressing US Congress point to this realization?

This grouping throws many fold opportunities to India. India will have access to Central Asian oil and gas as well as uranium. The Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline also known as ‘Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India Pipeline, (TAPI)’, a proposed natural gas pipeline being developed by the Asian Development Bank may see the light of the day facilitating speedy and economical transportation of India’s energy requirements from Central Asia. With all the three countries being a part of SCO, be it the undersea route bypassing Pakistan or the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) “Peace Pipeline”, India may be able to obtain gas supplies from multiple sources including from Iran without being pressurised.

India’s membership in the SCO will pave the way for promoting India’s economic integration with the Central Asian Republics which is in line with India’s ‘Connect Central Asia Policy.’ India will have land access to Afghanistan and Central Asia besides being able to use the proposed Chinese Silk Road, Maritime Silk Road[i] as well as the Central Asian Regional Economic Corridor[ii] being built with ADB assistance providing land connectivity to Europe, China, Russia, East Asia, South Asia and the Middle East. This will boost India’s trade within the region besides opening up manifold opportunities to the people of J & K bringing in prosperity to the region. The key to this economic and trade integration and India deriving the benefits of this cooperation lie in India’s ability to regain control over Gilgit - Baltistan. With India going with the idea of BRICS Bank, an added impetus may be given to India’s growth.

The Asian – Eurasian block can play a key role in stabilizing Afghanistan post-2014 US withdrawal. Being within the grouping, China and Russia may be able to reign in Pakistan on the Afghanistan issue and its cross border activities in the region as a whole. The grouping will enable terrorism being dealt with collectively in the region. It is significant that the SCO’s future grouping will have India, Pakistan and Iran; the three concerned neighbours of Afghanistan. Military and Intelligence agencies of all the member countries could meet and workout a mechanism for intelligence sharing and evolve joint strategies to fight terrorism within the region.

While on the issue, the negative face of the organisation cannot be wished away. The inbuilt contradictions within the grouping as at present prevent the Organisation from providing an alternative to US or emerging as an alternative to NATO. Despite the recent cooperation between China and Russia at the international forums and the 30-year $400 billion gas deal for supply of gas from Russia’s Far East to China, their relations are mired in distrust and skepticism. For example, at the 2013 SCO annual summit in Bishkek, Russia and China pursued their own interests with Russia seeking to find approval for its Syrian solution, while China kept pushing for the SCO development bank and closer investment partnerships, besides promoting its energy deals.
It is clear that China and Russia prefer to pursue their own interests in the SCO. The failure of the SCO Development Bank to take off can be attributed to the Russian fears that China may use its financial clout and the Bank to expand its political influence in Central Asia. The combination of India, China, Pakistan and Iran with their own political and geopolitical differences may also have its own negative effect on the organisation.

If SCO is to emerge as a viable alternative to US influence and promote a multi polar world, there may be a need to redraw its agenda reflecting the shared interest of the member countries with a clear resolve to promote peace and economic activity in the region. Internal contradictions of the member countries should not be allowed to interfere with the shared vision and interests of the member countries. On India’s part, it will have to stick to its policy of maintaining strategic autonomy with clear policies based on unwavering principles. If China were to give up its opposition to including India as a permanent member of United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the organisation will be further strengthened with three members of the UNSC being part of the Organisation.  
By  V Mahalingam

sourche:  The Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) (http://www.claws.in)

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