Is Iran a Rational Actor?

[Abstract] Is Iran as “a rational actor? ” “Yes”, explains Fareed Zakaria on CNN. But, he adds immediately: “It's very important to understand, however, what it means to talk about a "rational actor." A rational actor is not a reasonable actor”.

1• Is Iran a rational actor?
In February 2012, General Martin Dempsey, the top-ranking military officer in the U.S., Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was interviewed by Fareed Zakaria on the international situation, and especially on Iran:
Fareed Zakaria:  When you observe Iranian behavior, does it strike you as highly irrational? Does it strike you as sort of unpredictable? Or do they seem to follow their national interests in a fairly calculating way?
Martin Dempsey:  That is a great question.  I'll tell you that I've been confronting that question since I came into Central Command in 2008. And we are of the opinion that the Iranian regime is a rational actor.  And it's for that reason, I think, that we think the current path we're on is the most prudent path at this point.
Document 1. General Martin Dempsey on Fareed Zakaria’s program on CNN, on February 17, 2012. -> [ http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/17/watch-gps-martin-dempsey-on-syria-iran-and-china/ ]


2• What is the difference between “a rational actor” and “a reasonable actor”?
At the start of a following program broadcasted on March 8, 2012, Fareed Zakaria said “a number of you asked me whether I agree with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey who described Iran as a "rational actor" on my program a couple of weeks ago”.
Fareed Zakaria answered: “I very much agree with General Dempsey. It's very important to understand, however, what it means to talk about a "rational actor." A rational actor is not a reasonable actor”.
What is a rational actor, according to him? “In international affairs or economics, the term rational actor is used to describe somebody who is concerned about their survival, prosperity or strength and is making calculations on the basis of these concerns. It describes someone who calculates costs and benefits. We all assume Iran is a rational actor - even the most hawkish people in this debate - when we assume that pressure on Iran will make a difference. We are assuming that Iran is watching the costs of its actions, calculating them and, presumably, will recognize that the costs outweigh the benefits. This is all that it means to say that Iran is a rational actor.”
A reasonable actor is « somebody who has the same goals or values as we have”.
And Fareed Zakaria concluded: “Indeed, Iran has been very calculating in its behavior (…). Its behavior for 30 years has been calculating. [The Iranians]  respond to inducements and pressures in ways that are completely understandable. Their goals are not ours, of course, but that's a very different issue”.
Document 2. On CNN, Fareed Zakaria answers to the question: “Is Iran a rational actor?”-> [ http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/08/zakaria-iran-is-a-rational-actor/ ]

3• “Iran has been very calculating in its behaviour”
The last part of Fareed Zakaria’s demonstration focused on the reasons of a nuclear program in Iran.
“An Iranian official once said to me about five years ago, ‘We are not pursuing a nuclear weapons program; we are pursuing a nuclear program.’ I wouldn't trust that characterization, but here's what he then said: ‘But if we were to pursue a nuclear weapons program, would it be so irrational? Look at our neighborhood. Russia has nukes. India has nukes. Pakistan has nukes. China has nukes. And Israel has nukes. Then on one side of our border the United States has 100,000 troops in Iraq. On the other side of our border, the United States has 100,000 troops in Afghanistan. The president of the United States, George W. Bush, says he's committed to ousting our regime. Now, if you were in our position, wouldn't that make you nervous and wouldn't you want to buy some kind of insurance?’ ”.
Document 3. Iran Political System: a Graphic
-> Source. Nicolas Rapp website, for Associated Press, June 12, 2009. -> Available on the Internet at: [ http://nicolasrapp.com/?p=683 ]

- René-Eric Dagorn, Sciences-Po Paris, Euro-American Campus in Reims

http://geopolitics.blog.lemonde.fr/category/moyen-orient/