China's Interest in South Asia

During the past few weeks, the leaders of Afghanistan and Pakistan have visited China. Less than a month after his installation as Hamid Karzai's successor, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai went on a four-day trip to Beijing -- his first foreign trip in office -- and secured $245 million in aid over the next three years as well as training for 3,000 Afghan officials spread over five years. Less than two weeks later, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif spent three days in the Chinese capital and got Beijing to pledge some $42 billion worth of investments to the country, mainly in the power and energy sectors.

China's financial commitment to Afghanistan is minor compared to what Beijing has promised Pakistan -- although Beijing has its eyes on what a U.S. geological survey said amounts to $3 trillion in untapped mineral and energy resources in Afghanistan. Additionally, the extent to which China will make good on its promises to invest in Pakistan is unclear. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan face sizable jihadist insurgencies and political instability, and Beijing is concerned that both countries are sanctuaries for ethnic Uighur Islamist militant forces that represent a major security threat to the Chinese government.

Nevertheless, Afghanistan and Pakistan are of geopolitical significance for China. Pakistan is a key ally in the Indian Ocean Basin, and Afghanistan is critical to Beijing's plans to further its economic interests involving Central Asia. Before it can leverage either country, China needs to ensure that the Pakistani and Afghan security problems return to tolerable levels. China has to make sure that the Afghan and Pakistani states are strong enough to contain the resurgence of violent Islamist non-state actors attempting to exploit the post-NATO security vacuum. Beijing's strategy is to work with Islamabad, which is far stronger politically than Kabul and holds the key to dealing with jihadists in the region. However, the Pakistani political economy has weakened to dangerous levels since 2007 and needs shoring up. China's fear is that if the Pakistani state deteriorates further, Afghanistan and Pakistan could closely resemble the current Syrian-Iraqi battlefield in the near future. By aiding Pakistan, Beijing hopes it will also ensure the stability of Afghanistan.

sourche : Stratfor (www.stratfor.com)