Η δύσκολη συνεννόηση στην Κύπρο

Παρ’ όλο που η Διζωνική, Δικοινοτική Ομοσπονδία (ΔΔΟ) αποτελεί όντως ένα ιδιόμορφο πολιτειακό μοντέλο ομοσπονδιακού χαρακτήρα καθώς δεν συναντάται ούτε στο Συνταγματικό Δίκαιο ούτε στην Επιστήμη της Πολιτειολογίας, ως μορφή δημοκρατίας φέρει όλα εκείνα τα χαρακτηριστικά που την εδράζουν στο «συναινετικό μοντέλο» (consociational model). Επιπλέον, φέρει όλα τα γνωρίσματα που την κατηγοριοποιούν στην θεσμική ρύθμιση και το ομοσπονδιακό είδος της «εθνo-ομοσπονδίας» (ethnofederalism). Συνεπώς, παρ'όλο που η ΔΔΟ –σε περίπτωση εφαρμογής της- θα καταστεί ένα ιδιότυπο sui generis πολιτειακό σχήμα, σαν πολιτική διευθέτηση θα ενέχει συγκεκριμένη συνταγματική αφετηρία αλλά και δοσμένο θεωρητικό πολιτειακό πλαίσιο.

Αναδιοργάνωση της Μουσουλμανικής Αδελφότητας

Η Μουσουλμανική Αδελφότητα στην Αίγυπτο είναι ένα από τα πλέον σημαίνοντα πολιτικά κινήματα στην σύγχρονη ιστορία της Μέσης Ανατολής. Μέχρι το καλοκαίρι του 2013, όταν ο Αιγυπτιακός στρατός ανέτρεψε την υπό την Μουσουλμανική Αδελφότητα κυβέρνηση, το κίνημα θεωρούνταν ο μεγαλύτερος νικητής της "Αραβικής Άνοιξης” και αναμενόταν να συνεχίσει να ηγείται της Αιγύπτου, του πιο πολυπληθούς κράτους στον αραβικό κόσμο, για πολλά χρόνια. Πιο γενικά, το πολιτικό ισλάμ θεωρήθηκε ως μια ιδεολογία που αναμενόταν να σαρώσει τον αραβικό κόσμο, μετά από την κατάρρευση των παλαιών δικτατοριών.

Transpacific partnership interim assessment

A preliminary review of the deal in the making.

Since the 12 member states signed the TPP text agreement at the beginning of October we are still within the mandated 90 day period during which interested parties in the U.S. can offer their assessments and Congress can evaluate this document.

THE EU ENERGY UNION: MORE THAN THE SUM OF ITS PARTS?

In a new CER policy brief, 'The EU Energy Union: More than the sum of its parts?' Dieter Helm 

looks at how an Energy Union built around EU-wide gas and electricity networks will help 

produce cheaper, greener and more secure energy for Europe

CAMERON'S SECURITY GAMBLE: IS BREXIT A STRATEGIC RISK?

Alongside the Strategic Defence and Security Review, UK airstrikes in Syria may be a signal of renewed British involvement in international affairs – but the continued risk of Brexit hangs over the country’s relations with its allies.

Projecting progress: reaching the SDGs by 2030

This flagship report offers the first systematic attempt to project progress across the full Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda, showing where – if current trends continue – the world will be in 15 years’ time. Our findings serve as a wake-up call on just how much more effort will be needed to reach the new goals. 

Gathering together the best available projections, we provide a ‘scorecard’ against 17 targets – one per goal. This shows that, without increased effort, none of the goals and examined targets will be met. The scorecard reveals how much faster progress will need to be, classing targets as needing ‘reform’, ‘revolution’ and ‘reversal’. 

OPEC Expects U.S. Oil Production To Rise In 2016… Really?

The OPEC 2015 World Oil Outlook came out a few days ago. They basically produce two outlooks, a medium term outlook to 2020 and a long term outlook to 2040. I found their medium term outlook pessimistic in some cases too optimistic in others. But I found their long term outlook to be wildly optimistic… in most cases.

In all cases below I chart crude when it is available and “liquids” only when no other option is available. The data is in million barrels per day.

The Worst Corruption Scandals of 2015

A goat and cash exchanged for shortened sentences in Ghanaian prisons. International soccer games that were bought and sold. Rolexes and vacation clubs traded for Chinese business deals.

In 2015, massive corruption scandals embroiled world leaders, high court judges, and the men who run the world’s soccer industry, among many others.

The Billion-Dollar Caliphate

Last month, U.S. fighter jets unleashed airstrikes against oil fields, refineries, and hundreds of tanker trucks near the Syrian city of Deir Ezzor. Dubbed Operation Tidal Wave II, the attacks were the latest phase in a campaign to bomb the Islamic State into bankruptcy, striking at the heart of the black-market economy and extortionist tax system that have underwritten the salaries of tens of thousands of extremist fighters.

Climate finance: what was actually agreed in Paris?

The head of the Bank of England Mark Carney said, in his keynote speech during COP21, that climate change was the issue for the future of the financial sector. 

Financial institutions and private investors finally seem to be getting the message; they’ve tumbled over each other to launch new initiatives on climate action in the run up to and during the UN negotiations. 

CAMERON'S EU REFORMS: WILL EUROPE BUY THEM?

There will be no agreement on David Cameron’s reform plans at the European Council summit on December 17th-18th. But Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, will try to help Cameron bridge the gap between the UK and other member-states, possibly setting the stage for a final deal in February.

In a new policy brief, ‘Cameron’s EU reforms: Will Europe buy them?’, CER research fellow Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska asks which of Cameron’s reforms might be acceptable to his European colleagues, and which member-states will be the most and least helpful in achieving them.

Greeks Bearing Gifts: How Europe’s poorest country is doing more than anyone else to help Syrian refugees.

One Friday in late summer, just as the Syrian refugee crisis was beginning to peak, a blue station wagon pulled up to the Kara Tepe refugee camp on the Greek island of Lesbos. The car’s side mirror was held on with masking tape and force of will. Big letters on the side said “Free Food For All” in English and Greek. A half-dozen sunburned, chain-smoking Greek leftists of all ages piled out, followed by two barrel-sized aluminum vats, several gas burners with propane tanks, two folding tables, forty bags of pasta, a box of spices, a dozen car-battery-sized cans of tomato paste and a couple of three-foot-long wooden paddles for stirring soup.

Η "υπολογισμένη" αλληλεγγύη της Γερμανίας

Με αποτέλεσμα 445 ψήφων υπέρ και 145 κατά, στις 4 Δεκεμβρίου η γερμανική Bundestag άνοιξε τον δρόμο για τη συμμετοχή της χώρας στην μάχη κατά του Ισλαμικού Κράτους. Θα αναπτυχθούν μέχρι 1200 στρατιώτες "για να υποστηρίξουν την Γαλλία, το Ιράκ και τη διεθνή σημασία στον αγώνα τους κατά του ISIS", όπως είναι διατυπωμένο στην πρόταση που παρουσιάστηκε από την ομοσπονδιακή κυβέρνηση. Οι γερμανικές ένοπλες δυνάμεις έχουν τώρα μια εξουσιοδότηση να υποστηρίξουν την συμμαχία με υπηρεσίες αναγνώρισης, εναέριου ανεφοδιασμού και ναυτικής προστασίας του γαλλικού αεροπλανοφόρου στη Μεσόγειο, μέχρι το 2016. Επιπλέον, η Γερμανία θα αναβαθμίσει τις τρέχουσες δεσμεύσεις της για να υποστηρίξει την γαλλική αντί-τρομοκρατική αποστολή στο Μάλι, στο πλαίσιο της αλληλεγγύης του Βερολίνου με τη Γαλλία.

Iran Is Part of the Problem, Part of the Solution

Image by European External Action Service

The participation of Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad-Zarif in the Vienna talks in October is a reluctant US-Saudi recognition of Iran’s importance in any future roadmap for the Syrian crisis. Since the Islamic revolution of 1979, and especially after the outbreak of popular protests in the Arab world, the two regional powers along the Persian Gulf have been jostling for influence and domination in Bahrain, Yemen and, above all, Syria. The move also signals a belated Saudi-Western recognition of the Iranian role and influence in resolving the four-year old crisis. With over 200,000 deaths the crisis has emerged as the witnessed the largest destruction and human suffering since the Iran-Iraq war.

Is this really our conflict?

There isn’t one war, the West versus Isis. Not even after last month’s terrorist attacks in Paris. There are layers of Middle Eastern conflicts, all linked to international intervention, of which the most intractable are heightened by the Sunni-Shia divide.

The Iranian revolution of 1979 established the world’s first officially Islamic regime, but being exclusively Shia, it resurrected memories of the age-old conflict between Sunni and Shia. On coming to power, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini demanded that the Muslim holy sites of Mecca and Medina be managed collectively. In Saudi Arabia this demand was seen as an intolerable challenge. (A young Sunni jihadist, Khaled Kelkal, involved in bombings in France in 1995, said he thought “Shiism was invented by the Jews to divide Islam” (1).) Violence against Shia by Saudi Wahhabis is nothing new: in 1802 the sack of Karbala (now in Iraq) led to the destruction of Shia shrines and tombs including that of the Prophet’s son-in-law Hussein, and the killing of many of the city’s inhabitants.

Countering terrorism financing through anti-money laundering measures

It is time for re-regulation; Europe is strengthening its AML/CFT measures in order to lower current terrorist financing (TF) risks.

“Money is the lifeblood of terrorist operations,” declared George Bush after the 9/11 attacks.

Empty promises: G20 subsidies to oil, gas and coal production

This research discovers that G20 country governments’ support to fossil fuel production marries bad economics with potentially disastrous consequences for climate change. In effect, governments are propping up the production of oil, gas and coal, much of which cannot be used if the world is to avoid dangerous climate change.

The report Empty promises: G20 subsidies to oil, gas and coal production documents, for the first time, the scale and structure of fossil fuel production subsidies in the G20 countries. The evidence points to a publicly financed bailout for some of the world’s largest, most carbon-intensive and polluting companies.

This Could Become The Most Promising Arctic Oil Basin

I described last month how one country on the planet recently bucked the trend of declining petroleum drilling: Ireland, which saw a record number of bids for offshore acreage in November. 

And this week, one of the neighbors of that rising oil and gas hotspot turned in another strong bid round.

Ενταση σε συγκέντρωση διαμαρτυρίας κατά του Εντι Ράμα

Ογκώδη και μαχητική συγκέντρωση διαμαρτυρίας κατά της κυβέρνησης του σοσιαλιστή πρωθυπουργού Εντι Ράμα πραγματοποίησε χθες η αντιπολίτευση στα Τίρανα, με την ευκαιρία των 25 χρονών από την κατάρρευση του κομμουνιστικού καθεστώτος.

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Διαδηλωτές της αντιπολίτευσης προσπαθούν να καταστρέψουν ένα μπούνκερ που είχε τοποθετηθεί ως καλλιτεχνική εγκατάσταση έξω από το υπουργείο Εσωτερικών στα Τίρανα.

Η συγκέντρωση, που οργανώθηκε από το Δημοκρατικό Κόμμα, το μεγαλύτερο κόμμα της αντιπολίτευσης, σημαδεύτηκε από επιθέσεις διαδηλωτών σε υπουργεία και την καταστροφή ενός υπό κατασκευήν μπούνκερ που θα συμβόλιζε τις αγριότητες του καθεστώτος Χότζα. Οι διαδηλωτές έσπασαν τζάμια και προκάλεσαν φθορές σε κτίρια υπουργείων, δίχως πάντως τα επεισόδια να γενικευθούν. Το Δημοκρατικό Κόμμα ζητάει την απομάκρυνση της κυβέρνησης, την οποία κατηγορεί για διαφθορά, ενώ θεωρεί «βία κατά των πολιτών» τα σκληρά μέτρα κατά της φοροδιαφυγής που έχει λάβει και τα οποία προβλέπουν φυλάκιση μέχρι και πέντε ετών σε όσους δεν κόβουν αποδείξεις.

Does the United States Have a Gun Problem or a Terrorism Problem?

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In  the wake of the San Bernardino attack, the panel raises questions about how the U.S. government handles its own national security and the growing imbalance between real threats and perceived ones. Is gun control the real problem? Or has the U.S. government been too lax in its monitoring of terrorist activity? And can the American people trust that the U.S. Congress has its priorities in place when it comes to keeping them safe?

Turkey’s Hapless Opposition

The results of Turkey’s stunning Nov. 1 election, which marked a remarkable comeback for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), came as a huge surprise to Turks and foreign observers alike. In the previous elections, held in June, the AKP lost its majority for the first time since 2002, and the president’s opponents had hoped that his ambitions would be curtailed. None of Turkey’s 23 polling companies came even close to predicting the voters’ swing back to the AKP, which gained nearly 9 percent (approximately 4.8 million votes) and 59 more seats in parliament. This outcome has inevitably invited a closer examination of the dismal state of Turkey’s opposition parties.

MILLSTONE OR MULTIPLIER? EU FOREIGN POLICY

EU foreign policy co-operation gives the UK a chance to persuade 27 other countries to support British aims – but Britain’s success depends on the UK showing more interest.

Since the Maastricht Treaty established the European Union’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) in 1992, successive British governments have seen CFSP as an important tool to achieve national foreign policy goals. Were they right, or would Britain’s foreign policy be more effective outside the EU? One way to judge is to compare some of the priority objectives of the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) with the EU’s foreign policy goals, for example on Iran, Russia, Somalia and international organisations.

How clean is clean coal?

The coal industry argues that more efficient and less polluting ‘advanced coal’ will help reduce carbon emissions and other pollution. What we can’t forget, ahead of next week's World Coal Association meeting and OECD talks on coal policy, is that there are cheaper and cleaner options.

Burning coal generates about 40% of fossil fuel emissions. Current G7 and Chinese plants, alongside a dramatic expansion of coal power planned in the developing world, stand to blow our carbon budget.

BIG DATA, BIG BROTHER? HOW TO SECURE EUROPEANS' SAFETY AND PRIVACY

In the wake of the Paris attacks and the renewed threat to Europe’s security, Camino Mortera-Martinez highlights a difficult trade-off for the EU: how to tackle cross-border crime without invading citizens’ right to privacy.

In a new policy brief: "Big data, Big Brother? How to secure Europeans’ safety and privacy", Mortera-Martinez urges the EU to: 

Athens 1944: Britain’s dirty secret

“I can still see it very clearly, I have not forgotten,” says Títos Patríkios. “The Athens police firing on the crowd from the roof of the parliament in Syntagma Square. The young men and women lying in pools of blood, everyone rushing down the stairs in total shock, total panic.”

 A day that changed history: the bodies of unarmed protestors shot by the police and the British army in Athens on 3 December 1944. Photograph: Dmitri Kessel/Time & Life Pictures/Getty Images

And then came the defining moment: the recklessness of youth, the passion of belief in a justice burning bright: “I jumped up on the fountain in the middle of the square, the one that is still there, and I began to shout: “Comrades, don’t disperse! Victory will be ours! Don’t leave. The time has come. We will win!”

Britain, immigration and Brexit

If the UK quits the EU, it will be because British politicians have pandered to anti-immigrant sentiment rather than addressing the supply-side failures that drive it.

If Britain votes to leave the EU it will be because of hostility to immigration. It will not be because of the threat of eurozone caucusing, the role of national parliaments vis-a-vis the European Parliament, regulatory threats to the City of London or concerns over the competitiveness of the EU economy. Disillusionment with the EU has risen in the UK because membership has become synonymous in many voters’ minds with uncontrolled immigration. Why has immigration, in particular EU immigration, become so toxic an issue in the UK that it could cost the country its membership of the Union?

Ποιες είναι οι οικονομικές κυρώσεις της Ρωσίας σε βάρος της Τουρκίας

Ο πρωθυπουργός της Ρωσίας Ντμίτρι Μεντβέντεφ ενέκρινε σήμερα μια σειρά οικονομικών κυρώσεων εναντίον της Τουρκίας σε αντίποινα για την κατάρριψη ενός βομβαρδιστικού της ρωσικής Πολεμικής Αεροπορίας στα συροτουρκικά σύνορα.

Ο κατάλογος των κυρώσεων, ο οποίος δημοσιοποιήθηκε την Τρίτη μέσω του επίσημου ιστοτόπου της κυβέρνησης, περιέχει αγροτικά προϊόντα που η Ρωσία θα πάψει να εισάγει από την Τουρκία από 1ης Ιανουαρίου 2016, ενώ επισημοποιεί επίσης την απαγόρευση των πτήσεων τσάρτερ από 1ης Δεκεμβρίου. Το συγκεκριμένο κείμενο όμως δεν αναφέρεται σε σημαντικά ενεργειακά έργα, όπως ο αγωγός μεταφοράς αερίου Turkish Stream, ούτε σε σημαντικά διατροφικά είδη (όπως είναι τα λεμόνια και τα φιστίκια π.χ.) τα οποία η Ρωσία εισάγει κατά κύριο λόγο από την Τουρκία.

Are the BRICS crumbling?

Following the recent move by Goldman Sachs in closing its BRICS fund, the future of this economic A-team seems uncertain. What does the future hold for the BRICS? And can we still expect a credible alternative to the Western-created IMF and World Bank to emerge?