China’s manufacturing contracted for an 11th straight month, a private survey found, increasing pressure on the government to bolster growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
The purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and Markit Economics had a final reading of 47.9 for September, compared with 47.6 in August and a preliminary level of 47.8 released Sept. 20. New export orders declined in September at the fastest pace in 42 months and purchasing activity in manufacturing fell for a fifth consecutive month.
The data add to challenges for Chinese leaders who are preparing for a once-a-decade handover of power that begins in November and also trying to balance the priorities of growthwith avoiding a resurgence in home prices. Speculation that authorities will take steps to counter a deepening slowdown spurred a 4.1 percent surge in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index in the week’s final two trading days.
“The failure of both external and internal demand is weighing heavily on Chinese manufacturing,” said Glenn Maguire, principal at consultant Asia Sentry Advisory Pty and former Societe Generale SA chief Asia economist. “External demand recovery requires a stronger U.S., Japanand Europe - a highly unlikely dynamic in the near term. Internal demand recovery requires greater policy support.”
The yuan climbed on Sept. 28 to its strongest level since 1993 on speculation China will announce measures to bolster the economy. The People’s Bank of China injected record funds into the financial system during the week to ease a cash squeeze in the run-up to a week-long holiday. China’s markets are closed through Oct. 7.
Output Prices
Yesterday’s data also showed that manufacturing output and input prices continued to decline and that employee numbers decreased a seventh straight month. The HSBC and Markit Economics PMI hasn’t had a monthly reading above 50, which would indicate expansion, since October 2011.
“Beijing should step up easing to support growth and employment,” Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC in Hong Kong, said in a statement. “Fiscal measures should play a more important role in the coming months.”
A separate, government-backed purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing will be released tomorrow. The gauge probably rose to 50.1 in September, just above the expansion-contraction dividing level of 50, from a nine-month low of 49.2 in August, based on the median estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Party Congress
China announced on Sept. 28 that the Communist Party will hold its 18th congress starting Nov. 8, when more than 2,000 delegates from the ruling party will gather to appoint new leaders. It was also announced that former Politburo member Bo Xilai had been expelled from the party.
The announcements showed “the dust finally settled” on the new leadership lineup and should mean a “re-focus on economic policy making,” Lu Ting, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong, wrote in a note to clients. “We don’t expect a big stimulus, but policy easing, stimulus will be stepped up.”
Chinese industrial companies’ profits dropped for a fifth month in August, government data showed on Sept. 27. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. (600019), the nation’s largest listed steelmaker, said Sept. 26 it suspended production at a Chinese plant after demand dropped for slabs used to make ships and bridges.
Slowing Growth
The PMI report also adds to evidence that China’s slowdown has extended into a seventh quarter after growth decelerated to a three-year low of 7.6 percent in the April-June period. The economy may expand 7.4 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier, based on the median estimate of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News from Sept. 11 to Sept. 18. Estimates ranged from 7.1 percent to 7.9 percent.
Demand for Chinese exports has sputtered as a result of the European debt crisis, with shipments to the European Union falling 12.7 percent from a year earlier in August as overall exports gained 2.7 percent. Domestic consumption has been eroded by a government campaign to rein in the property market and boost the affordability of homes, which has included raising down payment requirements and limiting purchases.
China’s industrial production rose 8.9 percent in August from a year earlier, the weakest pace since May 2009, compared with a 13.5 percent gain in August 2011.
The government has sped up approvals for investment projects, lowered interest rates and boosted tax support for exporters in response to the slowdown. At the same time, authorities have refrained from easing monetary policy since rate cuts in June and July and a May reduction in banks’ reserve requirements.
Wen signaled this month that there’s more room for fiscal and monetary policy to support growth, saying Sept. 11 that the nation has full confidence it will meet its economic goals for the year. The government is trying to prevent growth this year from slipping below the 7.5 percent target set in March, which would already be the weakest since 1990.
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