3 priorities for Pakistan's new government

Enlarge

Nawaz Sharif speaks to members of the media at his residence in Lahore, Pakistan, on May 13. The Pakistani politician is poised to become the country's next prime minister. He said Monday that Islamabad has 'good relations' with the United States, but called the CIA's drone campaign in the country's tribal region a challenge to national sovereignty. (K.M. Chaudary/AP)

After 14 years, Nawaz Sharif is back at the helm in Pakistan. The center-right politician’s herculean exertions to claw back from exile and resurrect his political party from collapse leave little doubt about his desire for power. But even Mr. Sharif could be forgiven a few pangs of buyer’s remorse when confronted with the welter of looming problems.
Pakistan is on the brink of economic collapse and its citizens have suffered horribly from a recent spike in terrorism. Then there are tensions with neighboring Afghanistan and India, along with the frustrating and unpopular counter-terror partnership with the United States.

Fortunately, most of the rest of the world will be rooting for Sharif to succeed, or at least not to fail. Pakistan’s burgeoning population of nearly 200 million people, expanding nuclear arsenal, and history of regional violence are all reasons to hope he can get his country turned in the right direction. Twice prime minister in the 1990s, the old Sharif displayed more interest in consolidating his political power than governing effectively. If his third time at bat is to be different, he will want to focus on the following three priorities. 

1. The economy

Pakistan’s stock market surged on news of Sharif’s victory. His party, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) is more business-friendly than the outgoing left-leaning government of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Spurring economic growth should be the PML-N’s top priority, not only to uplift society, but to reduce the appeal of violent extremist groups that prey on Pakistan’s alienated and underemployed youth.

The beauty of Sharif’s relatively strong representation in the National Assembly is that he can forge ahead on painful but necessary reforms, starting with tax policy. That, in turn, would appease international lenders and avert a near-term financial crunch. From there, Sharif can build positive political momentum if he revises regulations and creates incentives for private investment in the power sector, thus reducing Pakistan’s rolling blackouts that shackle industrial production and infuriate the public.

Next, the PML-N will need to demonstrate that it can turn enhanced revenues into better government services, from education to infrastructure. Showy new bus lines and highways will invariably be used to reward his loyal constituents in his home base of Punjab Province, but Sharif will also want to consider projects beyond that to escape a reputation for being Punjab-centric and to support the sort of nationwide development required for stability.

Daniel Markey is a senior fellow at The Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C., and is the author of the forthcoming “No Exit from Pakistan.”

2. Domestic order

Unfortunately, Sharif will not have the luxury to focus, laser-like, on Pakistan’s economy. To keep his reform agenda moving, he will also need to fend off various threats to domestic order. Chief among these is the violence that plagues the country from its megacities to its mountainous hinterlands along the Afghan border.

There are multiple roots of this problem: the state’s misguided nurturing of militant groups, poor education and limited career opportunities, and the breakdown of traditional social, political, and institutional structures throughout the country. At first, Sharif will at best be able to tackle the symptoms of these underlying causes by beefing up police, courts, and Pakistan’s other security services.

Long-term success will depend on whether the PML-N commits to a program of law and order or instead chooses to temporize with Pakistan’s home-grown militants. Past experience is discouraging; Sharif’s Punjab Province is littered with violent organizations with whom the PML-N appears to have established a truce. Thus far, Sharif appears not to have any credible program to quell the violence or fight extremists in the short or long term. But the problem is existential for Pakistan, and can’t be sidelined forever. Sharif must either find the courage to address it or become its next victim.

Then there is the question of whether Sharif can work with Pakistan’s military. Only the Army can possibly take on well-armed groups like the Pakistani Taliban. If Sharif can put aside old vendettas with the military and patiently assert his control over foreign and defense policy, he will probably win short-term cooperation from Army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. In November, Sharif can start fresh with a new Army chief when Gen. Kayani retires.

Finally, Sharif needs to make a peaceful settlement with the smaller parties his party trounced in the election. The vote may have been a step forward for democratic rule, but if left unaddressed its results could herald a step backward for national unity. Different political parties won each of the provinces and the country’s biggest city of Karachi, highlighting a dangerous regional and ethnic fragmentation. Here too, a bit of magnanimity by Sharif – along with serious horse trading – could help avert more bloodshed and distractions from his economic reform agenda.
3. Foreign relations

While many of Sharif’s problems start at home, others are a consequence of Pakistan’s difficult neighborhood. His government takes office at a turning point in the American war in Afghanistan, with NATO forces drawing down and leaving Afghan units to take up the fight. Sharif and theObama administration do not see eye-to-eye on the Afghan war, and they have been even more at odds over Washington’s drone-heavy counter-terror campaign in Pakistan.

In both cases, the short-term question is whether Sharif will pull Pakistan from cooperation with theUnited States. Far more likely, he will seek to renegotiate its terms so as to reduce his own exposure to public criticism for working too closely with Washington and to ensure that Pakistan is adequately compensated for what cooperation it provides.

Sharif will win points with Washington and take pressure off his own security forces by advancing a process of normalized relations with India. At the center of that process is relaxing trade restrictions in ways that would contribute to Sharif’s top goal of boosting the economy.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/0514/3-priorities-for-Pakistan-s-new-government/Foreign-relations